| ---
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| license:
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| - cc-by-4.0
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| - apache-2.0
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| language:
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| - en
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| - de
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| - pt
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| - es
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| pretty_name: "AFOS · Germany 2025 Electoral Divergence"
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| tags:
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| - elections
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| - germany
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| - prediction-markets
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| - polls
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| - political-risk
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| - divergence
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| - open-data
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| - europe
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| ---
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| 
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| # AFOS · Germany 2025 Electoral Divergence Dataset
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| [](https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/W9XGXM) |
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| 🌐 **[English](#english) · [Português](#português) · [Español](#español)**
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| Open dataset cross-referencing **opinion polls × prediction markets** for Germany's **2025 federal election** (Bundestag, 23 February 2025, a snap election after the November 2024 coalition collapse), in the same spirit as the AFOS Brazil 2026 dataset: sources reported side by side with **explicit divergence**, not blended into one average.
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| Maintained by **[AFOS Analytics](https://afos-analytics.com)**. *No personal data, only public electoral information.* **Party-level** dataset: polls measure **party vote share**, the market prices the **probability of winning the most seats**, two different quantities, and the gap is the signal.
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| ---
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| ## Press coverage layer
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| The qualitative third axis of the AFOS cross (**market x polls x press**) is now a structured file: `news/germany-2025-press-coverage.csv`, 6 dated headlines from 5 national outlets across the cycle (campaign, result, aftermath), in DE. Headlines and links only (outlets retain copyright); URLs sourced from the election article references on Wikipedia; dates are publication/coverage dates, best-effort. It complements the quantitative market-vs-poll divergence; it is not sentiment-scored.
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| ---
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| ## English
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| 
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| **Contents (start with the polls):**
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| | Path | Rows | Content |
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| |------|------|---------|
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| | `polls/germany-polls.csv` | 2,505 | Party vote-share polling, **long format** (one row per party × poll), 8 parties, 349 polls, 2024→Feb 2025. |
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| | `polls/germany-polls.json` | n/a | Full structured polls (pollster, fieldwork, sample, per-party results). |
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| | `data/germany-market-odds-timeseries.csv` | 420 | Daily Polymarket **"wins the most seats"** probability per party (6 parties, Dec 2024→Feb 2025) from the "Germany Parliamentary Election Winner" market. |
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| | `data/germany-divergence-timeseries.csv` | 490 | **Market × poll divergence** per party, each poll's party vote share joined to that party's market odds on its date. |
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| | `data/germany-poly-raw.json` | n/a | Raw Polymarket payload, kept for provenance. |
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| <sub>Market data fetched from Polymarket's gamma-api + clob via a US-resolving function. There is no runoff, Germany elects the Bundestag in a single vote.</sub>
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| ### ⚖️ Notable divergences (why divergence beats the average)
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| The market here prices **which party wins the most seats**; the polls measure **party vote share**. In a multi-party system the two come apart sharply, and that gap is the point.
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| - **AfD, second in votes, near-zero to win.** In the final polls the AfD held **about 21% of the vote**, clearly the **second-largest party**, yet the market gave it only **about 3%** of winning the most seats (a −18 pp market−poll gap). High vote share is not the same as a parliamentary plurality, and the market never confused the two. The AfD finished second (20.8%); it did not win the most seats.
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| - **CDU/CSU, the mirror image.** about **29.5%** of the vote but **about 97%** to win the most seats (+67 pp): a moderate vote lead translated into near-certain plurality. The CDU/CSU won (28.5%) and Friedrich Merz became Chancellor.
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| - **The small-party threshold (5%):** BSW and FDP hovered right at the **5% Bundestag threshold** in vote-share polls while the market priced their probability of *winning* at about 0%, two parties for whom "share" and "win" were never the same question. Both ultimately fell below 5%.
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| **The reading:** vote share answers "how many votes," the market answers "who wins", and in a fragmented parliament those diverge by design. A blended poll average tells you the AfD was second; only the market-versus-poll spread tells you it was second *and* had no path to the plurality.
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| **Pollsters covered:** Forsa, INSA, Infratest dimap, Allensbach, YouGov, Ipsos, FGW (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen), GMS, Verian, and others.
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| **Provenance & method:** poll figures compiled deterministically (rowspan/colspan-aware HTML parser) from the public Wikipedia aggregation *"Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election."* Market odds from the public Polymarket market. Nothing imputed or smoothed; missing values left blank.
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| **License (dual):** **data** → CC BY 4.0 (`LICENSE-CC-BY-4.0`); **code/scripts** → Apache 2.0 (`LICENSE-APACHE-2.0`), matching the repo root and the Hugging Face mirror. Underlying poll numbers are facts released by the named pollsters; the Wikipedia aggregation is CC BY-SA. Please attribute **AFOS Analytics** and the **original pollsters**.
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| **Cite:** *AFOS Analytics. Germany 2025 Electoral Divergence Dataset. Hugging Face, 2026. CC BY 4.0.* (see `CITATION.cff`)
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| **Disclaimer:** observational research. Not investment advice, not voting guidance.
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| ---
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| ## Português
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| Dataset aberto cruzando **pesquisas × mercados de previsão** para a **eleição federal alemã de 2025** (Bundestag, 23/fev/2025, eleição antecipada após o colapso da coalizão em nov/2024). **Nível partido:** as pesquisas medem **voto por partido**; o mercado precifica a **probabilidade de vencer mais cadeiras**, quantidades diferentes, e a diferença é o sinal.
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| - `polls/germany-polls.csv`, voto por partido, formato largo, 8 partidos, 349 pesquisas (2024→fev 2025).
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| - `data/germany-market-odds-timeseries.csv` / `germany-divergence-timeseries.csv`, probabilidade Polymarket de "vencer mais cadeiras" por partido e divergência mercado × pesquisa.
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| ### ⚖️ Divergências em destaque (por que a divergência supera a média)
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| - **AfD, 2º mais votado, quase zero para vencer.** Nas pesquisas finais a AfD tinha cerca de **21% do voto** (claramente o 2º maior partido), mas o mercado lhe dava só **cerca de 3%** de vencer mais cadeiras (diferença −18pp). Voto alto não é maioria parlamentar, e o mercado nunca confundiu os dois. A AfD ficou em 2º (20,8%); não venceu.
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| - **CDU/CSU, a imagem espelhada.** cerca de **29,5%** de voto mas **cerca de 97%** de vencer mais cadeiras (+67pp): liderança moderada de voto vira maioria quase certa. A CDU/CSU venceu (28,5%) e Friedrich Merz virou chanceler.
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| - **O limiar de 5%:** BSW e FDP rondavam os **5% da cláusula de barreira** no voto enquanto o mercado precificava a chance de *vencer* em cerca de 0%, dois partidos para quem "voto" e "vencer" nunca foram a mesma pergunta. Ambos ficaram abaixo de 5%.
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| **A leitura:** voto responde "quantos votos", o mercado responde "quem vence", e num parlamento fragmentado isso diverge por construção. Uma média das pesquisas diz que a AfD era 2ª; só a diferença mercado×pesquisa mostra que era 2ª *e* sem caminho para a maioria.
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| ---
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| ## Español
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| Dataset abierto que cruza **encuestas × mercados de predicción** para la **elección federal alemana de 2025** (Bundestag, 23 feb 2025). **Nivel partido:** las encuestas miden **voto por partido**; el mercado valora la **probabilidad de ganar más escaños**.
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| ### ⚖️ Divergencias destacadas
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| - **AfD, segundo en votos, casi nulo para ganar.** cerca de **21% del voto** (2º partido) pero el mercado le daba solo **cerca de 3%** de ganar más escaños (−18pp). Voto alto no es mayoría parlamentaria. La AfD quedó 2ª (20,8%); no ganó.
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| - **CDU/CSU, la imagen espejo.** cerca de **29,5%** de voto pero **cerca de 97%** de ganar más escaños (+67pp). Ganó (28,5%) y Merz fue canciller.
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| - **El umbral del 5%:** BSW y FDP rondaban el 5% en voto mientras el mercado valoraba su probabilidad de *ganar* en cerca de 0%. Ambos quedaron bajo el 5%.
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| **Fuente:** agregación pública de Wikipedia; Polymarket. **Licencia:** CC BY 4.0 (atribuir a AFOS Analytics y a las encuestadoras). Investigación observacional; no es asesoría de inversión.
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| ---
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| **Sources / Fontes / Fuentes:** Pollsters (Forsa, INSA, Infratest dimap, Allensbach, …) · [Wikipedia aggregation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_German_federal_election) · Polymarket. Column definitions in [`DATA_DICTIONARY.md`](DATA_DICTIONARY.md).
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| ## Structural context (World Bank)
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| Beyond the divergence data, this dataset ships `data/germany-structural-context.csv`: official, open World Bank indicators that frame the country, **governance** (Worldwide Governance Indicators, 0-100 scale) plus **economy & education** (World Development Indicators: population, GDP, GDP per capita, inflation, public education spending, expected years of schooling). These are annual structural indicators that contextualize the country; they do **not** predict the electoral outcome. Columns are documented in `DATA_DICTIONARY.md`.
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| ## Provenance and reproducibility (v1.2.0)
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| - **raw/ vs. derived.** `raw/` holds immutable source pulls: the Polymarket snapshot(s) (`*-poly-raw.json`) and the official result (`germany-2025-official-result.json`). The CSVs under `data/`, `polls/` and `news/` are derived/transcribed series.
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| - **Validated against the official result.** Winner: CDU/CSU (Friedrich Merz). Source: Bundeswahlleiterin (Federal Returning Officer), Germany. See `raw/germany-2025-official-result.json`.
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| - **Poll disclosure.** The poll series carries per-row pollster, fieldwork date and sample size. Each poll row now carries a **page-level** `source_url` (the Wikipedia opinion-polling page it was compiled from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_German_federal_election); per-pollster report URLs remain a future enhancement (the source aggregation footnotes were not retained per row).
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| - **Integrity.** `datapackage.json` (Frictionless, validated), `croissant.json` (MLCommons) and `CHECKSUMS.txt` (SHA-256) describe and verify every file. |
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| --- |
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| <!-- afos-platform-pointer --> |
| ## 📬 The method, and where it runs live |
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| **English** · This is one of the elections AFOS has validated against the official result. How the validation works and what qualifies as a case: [the method](https://www.afos-analytics.com/en/how-it-works) and [methodology](https://www.afos-analytics.com/en/methodology). The same method runs live on Brazil 2026, published every day in [AFOS Daily](https://www.afos-analytics.com/en/daily), free by email. |
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| **Português** · Esta é uma das eleições que o AFOS validou contra o resultado oficial. Como a validação funciona e o que qualifica um caso: [o método](https://www.afos-analytics.com/pt-BR/how-it-works) e a [metodologia](https://www.afos-analytics.com/pt-BR/methodology). O mesmo método roda ao vivo no Brasil 2026, publicado todos os dias no [AFOS Daily](https://www.afos-analytics.com/pt-BR/daily), gratuito por e-mail. |
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| **Español** · Esta es una de las elecciones que AFOS validó contra el resultado oficial. Cómo funciona la validación y qué califica como caso: [el método](https://www.afos-analytics.com/es/how-it-works) y la [metodología](https://www.afos-analytics.com/es/methodology). El mismo método corre en vivo en Brasil 2026, publicado todos los días en [AFOS Daily](https://www.afos-analytics.com/es/daily), gratis por correo. |
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