AFOS Germany 2025 Electoral Divergence — initial dataset

Party-level: vote share (polls) vs probability of winning the most seats (market).
AfD ~21% vote but ~3% to win the plurality; CDU/CSU ~30% vote → ~97% to win, and
won. 349 polls + Polymarket + divergence. CC BY 4.0 + Apache 2.0. No personal data.

.gitattributes

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+*.png filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text

.gitignore

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+node_modules/
+*.html
+.DS_Store

CITATION.cff

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+cff-version: 1.2.0
+message: "If you use this dataset, please cite it as below."
+title: "AFOS — Germany 2025 Electoral Divergence Dataset"
+abstract: >-
+  Open dataset cross-referencing opinion polls and prediction markets for Germany's
+  2025 federal election (Bundestag, 23 February 2025), with explicit poll-versus-market
+  divergence rather than a blended average. Polls measure party vote share; the market
+  prices the probability of winning the most seats. The AfD held ~21% of the vote (second
+  party) yet only ~3% to win the plurality — vote share is not the same as winning, and
+  the spread is the signal. Poll figures compiled deterministically from public pollster
+  releases (via the Wikipedia aggregation); market odds from Polymarket.
+type: dataset
+authors:
+  - name: "AFOS Analytics"
+    website: "https://afos-analytics.com"
+keywords:
+  - elections
+  - Germany
+  - opinion polls
+  - prediction markets
+  - divergence
+  - Europe
+  - open data
+license: CC-BY-4.0
+repository: "https://huggingface.co/datasets/AFOS-Analytics1/germany-2025-electoral-divergence"
+url: "https://afos-analytics.com"
+version: "2026.06"
+date-released: "2026-06-11"

DATA_DICTIONARY.md

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+# Data Dictionary — AFOS Germany 2025 Electoral Divergence
+
+Every file and column, with type, unit and provenance. **Party-level**: polls measure party vote share; the market prices the probability of winning the most seats. Values are never imputed or smoothed — missing values are left **blank**.
+
+---
+
+## `polls/germany-polls.csv`
+
+Party vote-share polling, **long format** — one row per party × poll.
+
+| Column | Type | Notes |
+|--------|------|-------|
+| `poll_date` | date | Fieldwork-end date (`YYYY-MM-DD`). |
+| `fieldwork` | string | Fieldwork window as published. |
+| `pollster` | string | Polling firm (Forsa, INSA, Infratest dimap, …). |
+| `sample` | integer | Sample size; blank when not declared (thousands separators normalized). |
+| `party` | string | Party (canonical): CDU/CSU, SPD, AfD, Grüne, Die Linke, FDP, BSW, Freie Wähler. |
+| `party_full` | string | Full party name. |
+| `percent` | number | Party vote-share intention, %. |
+
+## `polls/germany-polls.json`
+
+Full structured polls (pollster, fieldwork, sample, per-party results). Deduplicated by (pollster, date), keeping the most complete row.
+
+---
+
+## `data/germany-market-odds-timeseries.csv`
+
+Polymarket **"wins the most seats"** probability per party, daily, from the "Germany Parliamentary Election Winner" market.
+
+| Column | Type | Notes |
+|--------|------|-------|
+| `date` | date | `YYYY-MM-DD`. |
+| `party` | string | Canonical party name. |
+| `polymarket_pct` | number | Implied probability of winning the most seats, %. |
+| `volume_usd` | number | Cumulative traded volume for that party's market, USD. |
+
+## `data/germany-divergence-timeseries.csv`
+
+**Market × poll divergence** per party — each poll's party vote share joined to that party's market odds on the poll's date (nearest **on or before**).
+
+| Column | Type | Notes |
+|--------|------|-------|
+| `poll_date` | date | Poll date. |
+| `pollster` | string | Polling firm. |
+| `party` | string | Canonical party name. |
+| `poll_pct` | number | Party vote share, %. |
+| `polymarket_pct` | number | Market "wins most seats" probability on `polymarket_date`, %. |
+| `polymarket_date` | date | Market date used (nearest on-or-before `poll_date`). |
+| `divergence_pp` | number | `polymarket_pct − poll_pct`, percentage points. |
+
+> **Interpretation caveat:** a poll reports *vote share*; the market prices *probability of winning the most seats*. The two are different quantities — `divergence_pp` is the spread AFOS tracks, **not** an error metric. A party (e.g. AfD) can hold a large vote share while its probability of winning the plurality is near zero; the gap is the signal.
+
+## `data/germany-poly-raw.json`
+
+Raw Polymarket payload (event + per-party price histories), via a US-resolving function, kept for provenance.
+
+---
+
+**Sources:** [Wikipedia — Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_German_federal_election) · Polymarket "Germany Parliamentary Election Winner". Maintained by [AFOS Analytics](https://afos-analytics.com). CC BY 4.0.

LICENSE

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+Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
+=========================================================
+
+The DATA in this dataset (CSV files, JSON snapshots, polls, and news-link
+metadata) is licensed by AFOS Analytics under the Creative Commons
+Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
+
+The complete and legally binding text of this license is available at:
+
+    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
+
+and is incorporated here by reference. A human-readable summary is at:
+
+    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
+
+------------------------------------------------------------------------
+You are free to:
+
+  • Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format.
+  • Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose,
+    even commercially.
+
+The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the
+license terms.
+
+Under the following terms:
+
+  • Attribution — You must give appropriate credit to AFOS Analytics,
+    provide a link to this license, and indicate if changes were made.
+    You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that
+    suggests AFOS Analytics endorses you or your use.
+
+  • No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or
+    technological measures that legally restrict others from doing
+    anything the license permits.
+
+------------------------------------------------------------------------
+Recommended attribution:
+
+  "AFOS Analytics — Brazil 2026 Electoral Divergence Dataset
+   (https://afos-analytics.com), CC BY 4.0."
+
+NOTE ON SCOPE: This file governs the DATA. Any code or scripts distributed
+in this repository are licensed separately under the Apache License 2.0
+(see LICENSE-APACHE-2.0).

README.md

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+---
+license: cc-by-4.0
+language:
+- en
+- de
+- pt
+- es
+pretty_name: "AFOS — Germany 2025 Electoral Divergence"
+tags:
+- elections
+- germany
+- prediction-markets
+- polls
+- political-risk
+- divergence
+- open-data
+- europe
+---
+
+# AFOS — Germany 2025 Electoral Divergence Dataset
+
+🌐 **[English](#english) · [Português](#português) · [Español](#español)**
+
+Open dataset cross-referencing **opinion polls × prediction markets** for Germany's **2025 federal election** (Bundestag, 23 February 2025 — a snap election after the November 2024 coalition collapse), in the same spirit as the AFOS Brazil 2026 dataset: sources reported side by side with **explicit divergence**, not blended into one average.
+
+Maintained by **[AFOS Analytics](https://afos-analytics.com)**. *No personal data — only public electoral information.* **Party-level** dataset: polls measure **party vote share**, the market prices the **probability of winning the most seats** — two different quantities, and the gap is the signal.
+
+---
+
+## English
+
+**Contents (start with the polls):**
+
+| Path | Rows | Content |
+|------|------|---------|
+| `polls/germany-polls.csv` | 2,505 | Party vote-share polling, **long format** (one row per party × poll), 8 parties, 349 polls, 2024→Feb 2025. |
+| `polls/germany-polls.json` | — | Full structured polls (pollster, fieldwork, sample, per-party results). |
+| `data/germany-market-odds-timeseries.csv` | 420 | Daily Polymarket **"wins the most seats"** probability per party (6 parties, Dec 2024→Feb 2025) from the "Germany Parliamentary Election Winner" market. |
+| `data/germany-divergence-timeseries.csv` | 490 | **Market × poll divergence** per party — each poll's party vote share joined to that party's market odds on its date. |
+| `data/germany-poly-raw.json` | — | Raw Polymarket payload, kept for provenance. |
+
+<sub>Market data fetched from Polymarket's gamma-api + clob via a US-resolving function. There is no runoff — Germany elects the Bundestag in a single vote.</sub>
+
+### ⚖️ Notable divergences (why divergence beats the average)
+
+The market here prices **which party wins the most seats**; the polls measure **party vote share**. In a multi-party system the two come apart sharply — and that gap is the point.
+
+- **AfD — second in votes, near-zero to win.** In the final polls the AfD held **~21% of the vote**, clearly the **second-largest party** — yet the market gave it only **~3%** of winning the most seats (a −18 pp market−poll gap). High vote share is not the same as a parliamentary plurality, and the market never confused the two. The AfD finished second (20.8%); it did not win the most seats.
+- **CDU/CSU — the mirror image.** ~**29.5%** of the vote but **~97%** to win the most seats (+67 pp): a moderate vote lead translated into near-certain plurality. The CDU/CSU won (28.5%) and Friedrich Merz became Chancellor.
+- **The small-party threshold (5%):** BSW and FDP hovered right at the **5% Bundestag threshold** in vote-share polls while the market priced their probability of *winning* at ~0% — two parties for whom "share" and "win" were never the same question. Both ultimately fell below 5%.
+
+**The reading:** vote share answers "how many votes," the market answers "who wins" — and in a fragmented parliament those diverge by design. A blended poll average tells you the AfD was second; only the market-versus-poll spread tells you it was second *and* had no path to the plurality.
+
+**Pollsters covered:** Forsa, INSA, Infratest dimap, Allensbach, YouGov, Ipsos, FGW (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen), GMS, Verian, and others.
+
+**Provenance & method:** poll figures compiled deterministically (rowspan/colspan-aware HTML parser) from the public Wikipedia aggregation *"Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election."* Market odds from the public Polymarket market. Nothing imputed or smoothed; missing values left blank.
+
+**License:** CC BY 4.0. Underlying poll numbers are facts released by the named pollsters; the Wikipedia aggregation is CC BY-SA. Please attribute **AFOS Analytics** and the **original pollsters**.
+
+**Cite:** *AFOS Analytics. Germany 2025 Electoral Divergence Dataset. Hugging Face, 2026. CC BY 4.0.* (see `CITATION.cff`)
+
+**Disclaimer:** observational research. Not investment advice, not voting guidance.
+
+---
+
+## Português
+
+Dataset aberto cruzando **pesquisas × mercados de previsão** para a **eleição federal alemã de 2025** (Bundestag, 23/fev/2025 — eleição antecipada após o colapso da coalizão em nov/2024). **Nível partido:** as pesquisas medem **voto por partido**; o mercado precifica a **probabilidade de vencer mais cadeiras** — quantidades diferentes, e a diferença é o sinal.
+
+- `polls/germany-polls.csv` — voto por partido, formato largo, 8 partidos, 349 pesquisas (2024→fev 2025).
+- `data/germany-market-odds-timeseries.csv` / `germany-divergence-timeseries.csv` — probabilidade Polymarket de "vencer mais cadeiras" por partido e divergência mercado × pesquisa.
+
+### ⚖️ Divergências em destaque (por que a divergência supera a média)
+
+- **AfD — 2º mais votado, quase zero para vencer.** Nas pesquisas finais a AfD tinha ~**21% do voto** (claramente o 2º maior partido) — mas o mercado lhe dava só **~3%** de vencer mais cadeiras (diferença −18pp). Voto alto não é maioria parlamentar, e o mercado nunca confundiu os dois. A AfD ficou em 2º (20,8%); não venceu.
+- **CDU/CSU — a imagem espelhada.** ~**29,5%** de voto mas **~97%** de vencer mais cadeiras (+67pp): liderança moderada de voto vira maioria quase certa. A CDU/CSU venceu (28,5%) e Friedrich Merz virou chanceler.
+- **O limiar de 5%:** BSW e FDP rondavam os **5% da cláusula de barreira** no voto enquanto o mercado precificava a chance de *vencer* em ~0% — dois partidos para quem "voto" e "vencer" nunca foram a mesma pergunta. Ambos ficaram abaixo de 5%.
+
+**A leitura:** voto responde "quantos votos", o mercado responde "quem vence" — e num parlamento fragmentado isso diverge por construção. Uma média das pesquisas diz que a AfD era 2ª; só a diferença mercado×pesquisa mostra que era 2ª *e* sem caminho para a maioria.
+
+---
+
+## Español
+
+Dataset abierto que cruza **encuestas × mercados de predicción** para la **elección federal alemana de 2025** (Bundestag, 23 feb 2025). **Nivel partido:** las encuestas miden **voto por partido**; el mercado valora la **probabilidad de ganar más escaños**.
+
+### ⚖️ Divergencias destacadas
+
+- **AfD — segundo en votos, casi nulo para ganar.** ~**21% del voto** (2º partido) pero el mercado le daba solo **~3%** de ganar más escaños (−18pp). Voto alto no es mayoría parlamentaria. La AfD quedó 2ª (20,8%); no ganó.
+- **CDU/CSU — la imagen espejo.** ~**29,5%** de voto pero **~97%** de ganar más escaños (+67pp). Ganó (28,5%) y Merz fue canciller.
+- **El umbral del 5%:** BSW y FDP rondaban el 5% en voto mientras el mercado valoraba su probabilidad de *ganar* en ~0%. Ambos quedaron bajo el 5%.
+
+**Fuente:** agregación pública de Wikipedia; Polymarket. **Licencia:** CC BY 4.0 (atribuir a AFOS Analytics y a las encuestadoras). Investigación observacional; no es asesoría de inversión.
+
+---
+
+**Sources / Fontes / Fuentes:** Pollsters (Forsa, INSA, Infratest dimap, Allensbach, …) · [Wikipedia aggregation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_German_federal_election) · Polymarket. Column definitions in [`DATA_DICTIONARY.md`](DATA_DICTIONARY.md).

build-germany-market-divergence.mjs

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+/**
+ * Série de odds Polymarket + divergência mercado × pesquisa do Chile... Alemanha 2025.
+ * Mercado "Germany Parliamentary Election Winner" (P de o partido vencer MAIS cadeiras) × voto por
+ * partido nas pesquisas. Via função Vercel/EUA. Molde Chile/Peru. Reprodutível e local.
+ *
+ * Saída: data/germany-market-odds-timeseries.csv, data/germany-divergence-timeseries.csv
+ */
+import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, mkdirSync } from 'fs'
+import { join } from 'path'
+
+const ROOT = process.cwd()
+const OUT = join(ROOT, 'data'); mkdirSync(OUT, { recursive: true })
+const csv = (rows) => rows.map((r) => r.map((v) => { const s = String(v ?? ''); return /[",\n]/.test(s) ? `"${s.replace(/"/g, '""')}"` : s }).join(',')).join('\n') + '\n'
+const num = (s) => { const m = String(s).replace(/,/g, '').match(/-?\d+(?:\.\d+)?/); return m ? parseFloat(m[0]) : null }
+
+const CANON = [
+  ['cdu', 'CDU/CSU'], ['union', 'CDU/CSU'], ['spd', 'SPD'], ['afd', 'AfD'],
+  ['green', 'Grüne'], ['grüne', 'Grüne'], ['bsw', 'BSW'], ['linke', 'Die Linke'], ['left', 'Die Linke'], ['fdp', 'FDP'],
+]
+const canon = (s) => { const t = String(s || '').toLowerCase(); for (const [k, v] of CANON) if (t.includes(k)) return v; return null }
+const isoOf = (t) => new Date(t * 1000).toISOString().slice(0, 10)
+
+const raw = JSON.parse(readFileSync(join(OUT, 'germany-poly-raw.json'), 'utf-8'))
+const odds = []
+for (const m of raw.odds || []) {
+  const name = canon(m.candidate); if (!name || !Array.isArray(m.history) || !m.history.length) continue
+  const byDay = new Map()
+  for (const pt of m.history) byDay.set(isoOf(pt.t), pt.p)
+  for (const [date, p] of byDay) odds.push({ date, candidate: name, pct: Math.round(p * 1000) / 10, volume: Math.round(m.volume || 0) })
+}
+odds.sort((a, b) => a.date === b.date ? b.pct - a.pct : a.date.localeCompare(b.date))
+writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'germany-market-odds-timeseries.csv'), csv([['date', 'party', 'polymarket_pct', 'volume_usd'], ...odds.map((o) => [o.date, o.candidate, o.pct, o.volume])]))
+console.log(`📈 market-odds: ${odds.length} linhas, ${new Set(odds.map((o) => o.date)).size} datas, ${new Set(odds.map((o) => o.candidate)).size} partidos (${raw.startDate?.slice(0, 10)}→${raw.endDate?.slice(0, 10)})`)
+
+const idx = {}
+for (const o of odds) (idx[o.candidate] ||= []).push({ date: o.date, pct: o.pct })
+for (const k in idx) idx[k].sort((a, b) => a.date.localeCompare(b.date))
+const mAt = (k, d) => { const a = idx[k]; if (!a) return null; let best = null; for (const e of a) { if (e.date <= d) best = e; else break } return best }
+
+const lines = readFileSync(join(ROOT, 'polls', 'germany-polls.csv'), 'utf-8').trim().split('\n').slice(1)
+const dv = [['poll_date', 'pollster', 'party', 'poll_pct', 'polymarket_pct', 'polymarket_date', 'divergence_pp']]
+let matched = 0
+for (const ln of lines) {
+  const c = ln.split(','); const poll_date = c[0], pollster = c[2], party = c[4], poll = num(c[6])
+  const k = canon(party); if (!k || poll == null) continue
+  const m = mAt(k, poll_date); if (!m) continue
+  dv.push([poll_date, pollster, k, poll, m.pct, m.date, Math.round((m.pct - poll) * 100) / 100]); matched++
+}
+writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'germany-divergence-timeseries.csv'), csv(dv))
+console.log(`📊 divergence: ${matched} linhas (voto por partido × mercado "vence mais cadeiras")`)

data/germany-divergence-timeseries.csv

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+poll_date,pollster,party,poll_pct,polymarket_pct,polymarket_date,divergence_pp
+2024-12-17,Verian,SPD,17,4,2024-12-17,-13
+2024-12-17,Verian,CDU/CSU,1,89.5,2024-12-17,88.5
+2024-12-17,Verian,Grüne,14,1.4,2024-12-17,-12.6
+2024-12-17,Verian,FDP,4,0.4,2024-12-17,-3.6
+2024-12-17,Verian,AfD,18,4.1,2024-12-17,-13.9
+2024-12-17,Verian,BSW,5,0.4,2024-12-17,-4.6
+2024-12-18,Infratest dimap,SPD,14,4,2024-12-18,-10
+2024-12-18,Infratest dimap,CDU/CSU,4,89.5,2024-12-18,85.5
+2024-12-18,Infratest dimap,Grüne,14,1.3,2024-12-18,-12.7
+2024-12-18,Infratest dimap,FDP,3,0.4,2024-12-18,-2.6
+2024-12-18,Infratest dimap,AfD,19,5,2024-12-18,-14
+2024-12-18,Infratest dimap,BSW,5,0.4,2024-12-18,-4.6
+2024-12-19,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,SPD,15,3.3,2024-12-19,-11.7
+2024-12-19,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,CDU/CSU,31,88.5,2024-12-19,57.5
+2024-12-19,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,Grüne,14,2.2,2024-12-19,-11.8
+2024-12-19,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,FDP,3,0.4,2024-12-19,-2.6
+2024-12-19,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,AfD,19,5.1,2024-12-19,-13.9
+2024-12-19,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,BSW,5,0.4,2024-12-19,-4.6
+2024-12-19,INSA,SPD,16,3.3,2024-12-19,-12.7
+2024-12-19,INSA,CDU/CSU,32,88.5,2024-12-19,56.5
+2024-12-19,INSA,Grüne,12,2.2,2024-12-19,-9.8
+2024-12-19,INSA,FDP,5,0.4,2024-12-19,-4.6
+2024-12-19,INSA,AfD,20,5.1,2024-12-19,-14.9
+2024-12-19,INSA,BSW,8,0.4,2024-12-19,-7.6
+2024-12-20,Forsa,SPD,16,2.8,2024-12-20,-13.2
+2024-12-20,Forsa,CDU/CSU,31,91,2024-12-20,60
+2024-12-20,Forsa,Grüne,13,1.9,2024-12-20,-11.1
+2024-12-20,Forsa,FDP,3,0.3,2024-12-20,-2.7
+2024-12-20,Forsa,AfD,19,4.1,2024-12-20,-14.9
+2024-12-20,Forsa,BSW,4,0.3,2024-12-20,-3.7
+2024-12-23,INSA,SPD,16,0.8,2024-12-23,-15.2
+2024-12-23,INSA,CDU/CSU,31,85.5,2024-12-23,54.5
+2024-12-23,INSA,Grüne,12.5,0.4,2024-12-23,-12.1
+2024-12-23,INSA,FDP,5,0.3,2024-12-23,-4.7
+2024-12-23,INSA,AfD,19.5,13.1,2024-12-23,-6.4
+2024-12-23,INSA,BSW,8,0.3,2024-12-23,-7.7
+2024-12-27,INSA,SPD,17,0.7,2024-12-27,-16.3
+2024-12-27,INSA,CDU/CSU,31,89.5,2024-12-27,58.5
+2024-12-27,INSA,Grüne,12,0.5,2024-12-27,-11.5
+2024-12-27,INSA,FDP,4,0.3,2024-12-27,-3.7
+2024-12-27,INSA,AfD,20,9,2024-12-27,-11
+2024-12-27,INSA,BSW,7,0.3,2024-12-27,-6.7
+2024-12-28,Wahlkreisprognose,SPD,18,0.8,2024-12-28,-17.2
+2024-12-28,Wahlkreisprognose,CDU/CSU,28,90.5,2024-12-28,62.5
+2024-12-28,Wahlkreisprognose,Grüne,15.5,0.5,2024-12-28,-15
+2024-12-28,Wahlkreisprognose,FDP,4,0.3,2024-12-28,-3.7
+2024-12-28,Wahlkreisprognose,AfD,18,7.8,2024-12-28,-10.2
+2024-12-28,Wahlkreisprognose,BSW,6,0.3,2024-12-28,-5.7
+2024-12-30,INSA,SPD,16.5,0.8,2024-12-30,-15.7
+2024-12-30,INSA,CDU/CSU,31,92.5,2024-12-30,61.5
+2024-12-30,INSA,Grüne,12,0.6,2024-12-30,-11.4
+2024-12-30,INSA,FDP,3.5,0.3,2024-12-30,-3.2
+2024-12-30,INSA,AfD,20.5,6.3,2024-12-30,-14.2
+2024-12-30,INSA,BSW,7,0.3,2024-12-30,-6.7
+2025-01-02,GMS,SPD,16,0.7,2025-01-02,-15.3
+2025-01-02,GMS,CDU/CSU,33,91.5,2025-01-02,58.5
+2025-01-02,GMS,Grüne,13,0.5,2025-01-02,-12.5
+2025-01-02,GMS,FDP,4,0.3,2025-01-02,-3.7
+2025-01-02,GMS,AfD,18,7.1,2025-01-02,-10.9
+2025-01-02,GMS,BSW,4,0.3,2025-01-02,-3.7
+2025-01-03,INSA,SPD,16,0.8,2025-01-03,-15.2
+2025-01-03,INSA,CDU/CSU,31,91.5,2025-01-03,60.5
+2025-01-03,INSA,Grüne,13,0.4,2025-01-03,-12.6
+2025-01-03,INSA,FDP,4,0.3,2025-01-03,-3.7
+2025-01-03,INSA,AfD,20,6.8,2025-01-03,-13.2
+2025-01-03,INSA,BSW,7,0.3,2025-01-03,-6.7
+2025-01-04,Ipsos,SPD,16,0.7,2025-01-04,-15.3
+2025-01-04,Ipsos,CDU/CSU,30,92.5,2025-01-04,62.5
+2025-01-04,Ipsos,Grüne,13,0.4,2025-01-04,-12.6
+2025-01-04,Ipsos,FDP,4,0.3,2025-01-04,-3.7
+2025-01-04,Ipsos,AfD,19,6.4,2025-01-04,-12.6
+2025-01-04,Ipsos,BSW,7,0.3,2025-01-04,-6.7
+2025-01-06,YouGov,SPD,16,0.7,2025-01-06,-15.3
+2025-01-06,YouGov,CDU/CSU,29,89.5,2025-01-06,60.5
+2025-01-06,YouGov,Grüne,14,0.4,2025-01-06,-13.6
+2025-01-06,YouGov,FDP,5,0.3,2025-01-06,-4.7
+2025-01-06,YouGov,AfD,21,9.4,2025-01-06,-11.6
+2025-01-06,YouGov,BSW,6,0.4,2025-01-06,-5.6
+2025-01-06,INSA,SPD,15.5,0.7,2025-01-06,-14.8
+2025-01-06,INSA,CDU/CSU,31,89.5,2025-01-06,58.5
+2025-01-06,INSA,Grüne,13.5,0.4,2025-01-06,-13.1
+2025-01-06,INSA,FDP,4,0.3,2025-01-06,-3.7
+2025-01-06,INSA,AfD,21.5,9.4,2025-01-06,-12.1
+2025-01-06,INSA,BSW,6.5,0.4,2025-01-06,-6.1
+2025-01-06,Forsa,SPD,17,0.7,2025-01-06,-16.3
+2025-01-06,Forsa,CDU/CSU,4,89.5,2025-01-06,85.5
+2025-01-06,Forsa,Grüne,12,0.4,2025-01-06,-11.6
+2025-01-06,Forsa,FDP,3,0.3,2025-01-06,-2.7
+2025-01-06,Forsa,AfD,19,9.4,2025-01-06,-9.6
+2025-01-06,Forsa,BSW,4,0.4,2025-01-06,-3.6
+2025-01-08,Infratest dimap,SPD,15,0.7,2025-01-08,-14.3
+2025-01-08,Infratest dimap,CDU/CSU,31,90.5,2025-01-08,59.5
+2025-01-08,Infratest dimap,Grüne,14,0.4,2025-01-08,-13.6
+2025-01-08,Infratest dimap,FDP,4,0.3,2025-01-08,-3.7
+2025-01-08,Infratest dimap,AfD,20,7.6,2025-01-08,-12.4
+2025-01-08,Infratest dimap,BSW,5,0.3,2025-01-08,-4.7
+2025-01-09,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,SPD,14,0.7,2025-01-09,-13.3
+2025-01-09,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,CDU/CSU,30,90.5,2025-01-09,60.5
+2025-01-09,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,Grüne,15,0.4,2025-01-09,-14.6
+2025-01-09,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,FDP,4,0.3,2025-01-09,-3.7
+2025-01-09,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,AfD,21,7.5,2025-01-09,-13.5
+2025-01-09,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,BSW,4,0.3,2025-01-09,-3.7
+2025-01-10,INSA,SPD,16,0.8,2025-01-10,-15.2
+2025-01-10,INSA,CDU/CSU,30,89.5,2025-01-10,59.5
+2025-01-10,INSA,Grüne,13,0.4,2025-01-10,-12.6
+2025-01-10,INSA,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-10,-3.6
+2025-01-10,INSA,AfD,22,8.3,2025-01-10,-13.7
+2025-01-10,INSA,BSW,6,0.4,2025-01-10,-5.6
+2025-01-13,INSA,SPD,15,0.8,2025-01-13,-14.2
+2025-01-13,INSA,CDU/CSU,31,88.5,2025-01-13,57.5
+2025-01-13,INSA,Grüne,13,0.4,2025-01-13,-12.6
+2025-01-13,INSA,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-13,-3.6
+2025-01-13,INSA,AfD,22,10,2025-01-13,-12
+2025-01-13,INSA,BSW,6.5,0.4,2025-01-13,-6.1
+2025-01-13,Forsa,SPD,16,0.8,2025-01-13,-15.2
+2025-01-13,Forsa,CDU/CSU,31,88.5,2025-01-13,57.5
+2025-01-13,Forsa,Grüne,13,0.4,2025-01-13,-12.6
+2025-01-13,Forsa,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-13,-3.6
+2025-01-13,Forsa,AfD,20,10,2025-01-13,-10
+2025-01-13,Forsa,BSW,4,0.4,2025-01-13,-3.6
+2025-01-13,Infratest dimap,SPD,10,0.8,2025-01-13,-9.2
+2025-01-13,Infratest dimap,Grüne,14,0.4,2025-01-13,-13.6
+2025-01-13,Infratest dimap,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-13,-3.6
+2025-01-13,Infratest dimap,AfD,16,10,2025-01-13,-6
+2025-01-14,YouGov,SPD,18,0.8,2025-01-14,-17.2
+2025-01-14,YouGov,CDU/CSU,4,89.5,2025-01-14,85.5
+2025-01-14,YouGov,Grüne,14,0.4,2025-01-14,-13.6
+2025-01-14,YouGov,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-14,-3.6
+2025-01-14,YouGov,AfD,21,8.5,2025-01-14,-12.5
+2025-01-14,YouGov,BSW,6,0.4,2025-01-14,-5.6
+2025-01-15,YouGov,SPD,15.6,0.8,2025-01-15,-14.8
+2025-01-15,YouGov,CDU/CSU,29.8,90,2025-01-15,60.2
+2025-01-15,YouGov,Grüne,13.6,0.4,2025-01-15,-13.2
+2025-01-15,YouGov,FDP,4.5,0.4,2025-01-15,-4.1
+2025-01-15,YouGov,AfD,19.7,8.2,2025-01-15,-11.5
+2025-01-15,YouGov,BSW,6,0.4,2025-01-15,-5.6
+2025-01-16,Wahlkreisprognose,SPD,16.5,0.8,2025-01-16,-15.7
+2025-01-16,Wahlkreisprognose,CDU/CSU,29,89.5,2025-01-16,60.5
+2025-01-16,Wahlkreisprognose,Grüne,15,0.5,2025-01-16,-14.5
+2025-01-16,Wahlkreisprognose,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-16,-3.6
+2025-01-16,Wahlkreisprognose,AfD,21,8.8,2025-01-16,-12.2
+2025-01-16,Wahlkreisprognose,BSW,4,0.4,2025-01-16,-3.6
+2025-01-16,Infratest dimap,SPD,18,0.8,2025-01-16,-17.2
+2025-01-16,Infratest dimap,Grüne,18,0.5,2025-01-16,-17.5
+2025-01-16,Infratest dimap,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-16,-3.6
+2025-01-16,Infratest dimap,AfD,15,8.8,2025-01-16,-6.2
+2025-01-17,INSA,SPD,16,0.8,2025-01-17,-15.2
+2025-01-17,INSA,CDU/CSU,29,89.5,2025-01-17,60.5
+2025-01-17,INSA,Grüne,13,0.5,2025-01-17,-12.5
+2025-01-17,INSA,FDP,5,0.4,2025-01-17,-4.6
+2025-01-17,INSA,AfD,21,8.4,2025-01-17,-12.6
+2025-01-17,INSA,BSW,7,0.3,2025-01-17,-6.7
+2025-01-18,Ipsos,SPD,16,0.8,2025-01-18,-15.2
+2025-01-18,Ipsos,CDU/CSU,30,89.5,2025-01-18,59.5
+2025-01-18,Ipsos,Grüne,14,0.5,2025-01-18,-13.5
+2025-01-18,Ipsos,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-18,-3.6
+2025-01-18,Ipsos,AfD,19,8.7,2025-01-18,-10.3
+2025-01-18,Ipsos,BSW,6,0.3,2025-01-18,-5.7
+2025-01-19,Allensbach,SPD,17,0.8,2025-01-19,-16.2
+2025-01-19,Allensbach,CDU/CSU,34,89.5,2025-01-19,55.5
+2025-01-19,Allensbach,Grüne,13.5,0.5,2025-01-19,-13
+2025-01-19,Allensbach,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-19,-3.6
+2025-01-19,Allensbach,AfD,20,8.4,2025-01-19,-11.6
+2025-01-19,Allensbach,BSW,5,0.3,2025-01-19,-4.7
+2025-01-20,YouGov,SPD,19,0.7,2025-01-20,-18.3
+2025-01-20,YouGov,CDU/CSU,4,90.5,2025-01-20,86.5
+2025-01-20,YouGov,Grüne,15,0.4,2025-01-20,-14.6
+2025-01-20,YouGov,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-20,-3.6
+2025-01-20,YouGov,AfD,19,8.2,2025-01-20,-10.8
+2025-01-20,YouGov,BSW,6,0.3,2025-01-20,-5.7
+2025-01-20,INSA,SPD,16,0.7,2025-01-20,-15.3
+2025-01-20,INSA,CDU/CSU,29,90.5,2025-01-20,61.5
+2025-01-20,INSA,Grüne,13,0.4,2025-01-20,-12.6
+2025-01-20,INSA,FDP,5,0.4,2025-01-20,-4.6
+2025-01-20,INSA,AfD,21.5,8.2,2025-01-20,-13.3
+2025-01-20,INSA,BSW,7,0.3,2025-01-20,-6.7
+2025-01-20,Forsa,SPD,16,0.7,2025-01-20,-15.3
+2025-01-20,Forsa,CDU/CSU,31,90.5,2025-01-20,59.5
+2025-01-20,Forsa,Grüne,13,0.4,2025-01-20,-12.6
+2025-01-20,Forsa,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-20,-3.6
+2025-01-20,Forsa,AfD,19,8.2,2025-01-20,-10.8
+2025-01-20,Forsa,BSW,4,0.3,2025-01-20,-3.7
+2025-01-20,Trend Research,SPD,3,0.7,2025-01-20,-2.3
+2025-01-20,Trend Research,Grüne,22,0.4,2025-01-20,-21.6
+2025-01-20,Trend Research,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-20,-3.6
+2025-01-20,Trend Research,AfD,13,8.2,2025-01-20,-4.8
+2025-01-20,Trend Research,BSW,4,0.3,2025-01-20,-3.7
+2025-01-23,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,SPD,15,0.4,2025-01-23,-14.6
+2025-01-23,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,CDU/CSU,30,91.5,2025-01-23,61.5
+2025-01-23,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,Grüne,14,0.3,2025-01-23,-13.7
+2025-01-23,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-23,-3.6
+2025-01-23,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,AfD,21,7.5,2025-01-23,-13.5
+2025-01-23,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,BSW,3,0.4,2025-01-23,-2.6
+2025-01-23,Wahlkreisprognose,SPD,17,0.4,2025-01-23,-16.6
+2025-01-23,Wahlkreisprognose,CDU/CSU,28.5,91.5,2025-01-23,63
+2025-01-23,Wahlkreisprognose,Grüne,14,0.3,2025-01-23,-13.7
+2025-01-23,Wahlkreisprognose,FDP,3.5,0.4,2025-01-23,-3.1
+2025-01-23,Wahlkreisprognose,AfD,21.5,7.5,2025-01-23,-14
+2025-01-23,Wahlkreisprognose,BSW,4.5,0.4,2025-01-23,-4.1
+2025-01-24,INSA,SPD,16,0.4,2025-01-24,-15.6
+2025-01-24,INSA,CDU/CSU,30,91.5,2025-01-24,61.5
+2025-01-24,INSA,Grüne,12,0.3,2025-01-24,-11.7
+2025-01-24,INSA,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-24,-3.6
+2025-01-24,INSA,AfD,21,7.4,2025-01-24,-13.6
+2025-01-24,INSA,BSW,7,0.4,2025-01-24,-6.6
+2025-01-25,Infratest dimap,SPD,15,0.4,2025-01-25,-14.6
+2025-01-25,Infratest dimap,AfD,6,4.1,2025-01-25,-1.9
+2025-01-25,Infratest dimap,FDP,3,0.4,2025-01-25,-2.6
+2025-01-25,Infratest dimap,Grüne,8,0.3,2025-01-25,-7.7
+2025-01-25,Infratest dimap,BSW,11,0.4,2025-01-25,-10.6
+2025-01-27,YouGov,SPD,15,0.4,2025-01-27,-14.6
+2025-01-27,YouGov,CDU/CSU,29,93.5,2025-01-27,64.5
+2025-01-27,YouGov,Grüne,13,0.3,2025-01-27,-12.7
+2025-01-27,YouGov,FDP,3,0.4,2025-01-27,-2.6
+2025-01-27,YouGov,AfD,23,5.6,2025-01-27,-17.4
+2025-01-27,YouGov,BSW,6,0.4,2025-01-27,-5.6
+2025-01-27,INSA,SPD,15.5,0.4,2025-01-27,-15.1
+2025-01-27,INSA,CDU/CSU,30,93.5,2025-01-27,63.5
+2025-01-27,INSA,Grüne,12.5,0.3,2025-01-27,-12.2
+2025-01-27,INSA,FDP,4.5,0.4,2025-01-27,-4.1
+2025-01-27,INSA,AfD,22,5.6,2025-01-27,-16.4
+2025-01-27,INSA,BSW,6,0.4,2025-01-27,-5.6
+2025-01-27,Forsa,SPD,16,0.4,2025-01-27,-15.6
+2025-01-27,Forsa,CDU/CSU,30,93.5,2025-01-27,63.5
+2025-01-27,Forsa,Grüne,14,0.3,2025-01-27,-13.7
+2025-01-27,Forsa,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-27,-3.6
+2025-01-27,Forsa,AfD,20,5.6,2025-01-27,-14.4
+2025-01-27,Forsa,BSW,3,0.4,2025-01-27,-2.6
+2025-01-28,Verian,SPD,15,0.4,2025-01-28,-14.6
+2025-01-28,Verian,CDU/CSU,30,93.5,2025-01-28,63.5
+2025-01-28,Verian,Grüne,14,0.3,2025-01-28,-13.7
+2025-01-28,Verian,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-28,-3.6
+2025-01-28,Verian,AfD,20,5.5,2025-01-28,-14.5
+2025-01-28,Verian,BSW,5,0.4,2025-01-28,-4.6
+2025-01-29,Infratest dimap,SPD,15,0.4,2025-01-29,-14.6
+2025-01-29,Infratest dimap,CDU/CSU,30,92.5,2025-01-29,62.5
+2025-01-29,Infratest dimap,Grüne,15,0.3,2025-01-29,-14.7
+2025-01-29,Infratest dimap,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-29,-3.6
+2025-01-29,Infratest dimap,AfD,20,5.9,2025-01-29,-14.1
+2025-01-29,Infratest dimap,BSW,4,0.4,2025-01-29,-3.6
+2025-01-29,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,SPD,15,0.4,2025-01-29,-14.6
+2025-01-29,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,CDU/CSU,4,92.5,2025-01-29,88.5
+2025-01-29,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,Grüne,14,0.3,2025-01-29,-13.7
+2025-01-29,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-29,-3.6
+2025-01-29,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,AfD,21,5.9,2025-01-29,-15.1
+2025-01-29,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,BSW,4,0.4,2025-01-29,-3.6
+2025-01-30,INSA,SPD,17,0.4,2025-01-30,-16.6
+2025-01-30,INSA,CDU/CSU,6,91.5,2025-01-30,85.5
+2025-01-30,INSA,Grüne,13,0.3,2025-01-30,-12.7
+2025-01-30,INSA,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-30,-3.6
+2025-01-30,INSA,AfD,22,7.2,2025-01-30,-14.8
+2025-01-30,INSA,BSW,6,0.4,2025-01-30,-5.6
+2025-01-30,Democracy Institute,SPD,15,0.4,2025-01-30,-14.6
+2025-01-30,Democracy Institute,CDU/CSU,9,91.5,2025-01-30,82.5
+2025-01-30,Democracy Institute,Grüne,13,0.3,2025-01-30,-12.7
+2025-01-30,Democracy Institute,FDP,5,0.4,2025-01-30,-4.6
+2025-01-30,Democracy Institute,AfD,25,7.2,2025-01-30,-17.8
+2025-01-30,Democracy Institute,BSW,6,0.4,2025-01-30,-5.6
+2025-01-31,INSA,SPD,17,0.4,2025-01-31,-16.6
+2025-01-31,INSA,CDU/CSU,3,91.5,2025-01-31,88.5
+2025-01-31,INSA,Grüne,12,0.3,2025-01-31,-11.7
+2025-01-31,INSA,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-31,-3.6
+2025-01-31,INSA,AfD,22,7.3,2025-01-31,-14.7
+2025-01-31,INSA,BSW,6,0.3,2025-01-31,-5.7
+2025-01-31,Ipsos,SPD,16,0.4,2025-01-31,-15.6
+2025-01-31,Ipsos,CDU/CSU,5,91.5,2025-01-31,86.5
+2025-01-31,Ipsos,Grüne,13,0.3,2025-01-31,-12.7
+2025-01-31,Ipsos,FDP,4,0.4,2025-01-31,-3.6
+2025-01-31,Ipsos,AfD,21,7.3,2025-01-31,-13.7
+2025-01-31,Ipsos,BSW,5,0.3,2025-01-31,-4.7
+2025-02-03,Wahlkreisprognose,SPD,16.5,1,2025-02-03,-15.5
+2025-02-03,Wahlkreisprognose,CDU/CSU,4,90.5,2025-02-03,86.5
+2025-02-03,Wahlkreisprognose,Grüne,12,0.3,2025-02-03,-11.7
+2025-02-03,Wahlkreisprognose,FDP,4.5,0.1,2025-02-03,-4.4
+2025-02-03,Wahlkreisprognose,AfD,19.5,8.6,2025-02-03,-10.9
+2025-02-03,Wahlkreisprognose,BSW,5.5,0.1,2025-02-03,-5.4
+2025-02-03,INSA,SPD,16,1,2025-02-03,-15
+2025-02-03,INSA,CDU/CSU,2,90.5,2025-02-03,88.5
+2025-02-03,INSA,Grüne,13,0.3,2025-02-03,-12.7
+2025-02-03,INSA,FDP,4.5,0.1,2025-02-03,-4.4
+2025-02-03,INSA,AfD,22,8.6,2025-02-03,-13.4
+2025-02-03,INSA,BSW,5.5,0.1,2025-02-03,-5.4
+2025-02-03,Forsa,SPD,16,1,2025-02-03,-15
+2025-02-03,Forsa,CDU/CSU,7,90.5,2025-02-03,83.5
+2025-02-03,Forsa,Grüne,15,0.3,2025-02-03,-14.7
+2025-02-03,Forsa,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-03,-3.9
+2025-02-03,Forsa,AfD,20,8.6,2025-02-03,-11.4
+2025-02-03,Forsa,BSW,4,0.1,2025-02-03,-3.9
+2025-02-04,YouGov,SPD,18,0.4,2025-02-04,-17.6
+2025-02-04,YouGov,CDU/CSU,29,90.5,2025-02-04,61.5
+2025-02-04,YouGov,Grüne,12,0.3,2025-02-04,-11.7
+2025-02-04,YouGov,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-04,-3.9
+2025-02-04,YouGov,AfD,22,9.1,2025-02-04,-12.9
+2025-02-04,YouGov,BSW,6,0.1,2025-02-04,-5.9
+2025-02-05,Infratest dimap,SPD,15,0.3,2025-02-05,-14.7
+2025-02-05,Infratest dimap,CDU/CSU,31,90.5,2025-02-05,59.5
+2025-02-05,Infratest dimap,Grüne,14,0.3,2025-02-05,-13.7
+2025-02-05,Infratest dimap,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-05,-3.9
+2025-02-05,Infratest dimap,AfD,21,9.2,2025-02-05,-11.8
+2025-02-05,Infratest dimap,BSW,4,0.1,2025-02-05,-3.9
+2025-02-05,YouGov,SPD,15.3,0.3,2025-02-05,-15
+2025-02-05,YouGov,CDU/CSU,29,90.5,2025-02-05,61.5
+2025-02-05,YouGov,Grüne,13.3,0.3,2025-02-05,-13
+2025-02-05,YouGov,FDP,4.1,0.1,2025-02-05,-4
+2025-02-05,YouGov,AfD,19.9,9.2,2025-02-05,-10.7
+2025-02-05,YouGov,BSW,5.4,0.1,2025-02-05,-5.3
+2025-02-06,Pollytix,SPD,17,0.3,2025-02-06,-16.7
+2025-02-06,Pollytix,CDU/CSU,30,90.5,2025-02-06,60.5
+2025-02-06,Pollytix,Grüne,12,0.3,2025-02-06,-11.7
+2025-02-06,Pollytix,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-06,-3.9
+2025-02-06,Pollytix,AfD,20,8.5,2025-02-06,-11.5
+2025-02-06,Pollytix,BSW,5,0.1,2025-02-06,-4.9
+2025-02-06,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,SPD,15,0.3,2025-02-06,-14.7
+2025-02-06,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,CDU/CSU,30,90.5,2025-02-06,60.5
+2025-02-06,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,Grüne,15,0.3,2025-02-06,-14.7
+2025-02-06,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-06,-3.9
+2025-02-06,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,AfD,20,8.5,2025-02-06,-11.5
+2025-02-06,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,BSW,4,0.1,2025-02-06,-3.9
+2025-02-07,GMS,SPD,15,0.3,2025-02-07,-14.7
+2025-02-07,GMS,CDU/CSU,30,91,2025-02-07,61
+2025-02-07,GMS,Grüne,14,0.3,2025-02-07,-13.7
+2025-02-07,GMS,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-07,-3.9
+2025-02-07,GMS,AfD,21,8.2,2025-02-07,-12.8
+2025-02-07,GMS,BSW,4,0.1,2025-02-07,-3.9
+2025-02-07,INSA,SPD,16,0.3,2025-02-07,-15.7
+2025-02-07,INSA,CDU/CSU,29,91,2025-02-07,62
+2025-02-07,INSA,Grüne,12,0.3,2025-02-07,-11.7
+2025-02-07,INSA,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-07,-3.9
+2025-02-07,INSA,AfD,21,8.2,2025-02-07,-12.8
+2025-02-07,INSA,BSW,6,0.1,2025-02-07,-5.9
+2025-02-10,YouGov,SPD,16,0.3,2025-02-10,-15.7
+2025-02-10,YouGov,CDU/CSU,29,92.5,2025-02-10,63.5
+2025-02-10,YouGov,Grüne,12,0.1,2025-02-10,-11.9
+2025-02-10,YouGov,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-10,-3.9
+2025-02-10,YouGov,AfD,21,7.1,2025-02-10,-13.9
+2025-02-10,YouGov,BSW,5,0.1,2025-02-10,-4.9
+2025-02-10,INSA,SPD,15.5,0.3,2025-02-10,-15.2
+2025-02-10,INSA,CDU/CSU,30,92.5,2025-02-10,62.5
+2025-02-10,INSA,Grüne,13,0.1,2025-02-10,-12.9
+2025-02-10,INSA,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-10,-3.9
+2025-02-10,INSA,AfD,22,7.1,2025-02-10,-14.9
+2025-02-10,INSA,BSW,5.5,0.1,2025-02-10,-5.4
+2025-02-10,Forsa,SPD,16,0.3,2025-02-10,-15.7
+2025-02-10,Forsa,CDU/CSU,4,92.5,2025-02-10,88.5
+2025-02-10,Forsa,Grüne,14,0.1,2025-02-10,-13.9
+2025-02-10,Forsa,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-10,-3.9
+2025-02-10,Forsa,AfD,20,7.1,2025-02-10,-12.9
+2025-02-10,Forsa,BSW,4,0.1,2025-02-10,-3.9
+2025-02-10,Infratest dimap,SPD,12,0.3,2025-02-10,-11.7
+2025-02-10,Infratest dimap,Grüne,18,0.1,2025-02-10,-17.9
+2025-02-10,Infratest dimap,FDP,5,0.1,2025-02-10,-4.9
+2025-02-10,Infratest dimap,AfD,18,7.1,2025-02-10,-10.9
+2025-02-10,Infratest dimap,BSW,4,0.1,2025-02-10,-3.9
+2025-02-12,Infratest dimap,SPD,14,0.3,2025-02-12,-13.7
+2025-02-12,Infratest dimap,CDU/CSU,32,92.5,2025-02-12,60.5
+2025-02-12,Infratest dimap,Grüne,14,0.1,2025-02-12,-13.9
+2025-02-12,Infratest dimap,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-12,-3.9
+2025-02-12,Infratest dimap,AfD,21,6.9,2025-02-12,-14.1
+2025-02-12,Infratest dimap,BSW,4.5,0.1,2025-02-12,-4.4
+2025-02-12,Allensbach,SPD,15,0.3,2025-02-12,-14.7
+2025-02-12,Allensbach,CDU/CSU,32,92.5,2025-02-12,60.5
+2025-02-12,Allensbach,Grüne,13,0.1,2025-02-12,-12.9
+2025-02-12,Allensbach,FDP,5,0.1,2025-02-12,-4.9
+2025-02-12,Allensbach,AfD,20,6.9,2025-02-12,-13.1
+2025-02-12,Allensbach,BSW,4,0.1,2025-02-12,-3.9
+2025-02-12,Pollytix,SPD,17,0.3,2025-02-12,-16.7
+2025-02-12,Pollytix,CDU/CSU,29,92.5,2025-02-12,63.5
+2025-02-12,Pollytix,Grüne,14,0.1,2025-02-12,-13.9
+2025-02-12,Pollytix,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-12,-3.9
+2025-02-12,Pollytix,AfD,19,6.9,2025-02-12,-12.1
+2025-02-12,Pollytix,BSW,5,0.1,2025-02-12,-4.9
+2025-02-13,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,SPD,16,0.2,2025-02-13,-15.8
+2025-02-13,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,CDU/CSU,30,93.5,2025-02-13,63.5
+2025-02-13,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,Grüne,14,0.1,2025-02-13,-13.9
+2025-02-13,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-13,-3.9
+2025-02-13,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,AfD,20,6,2025-02-13,-14
+2025-02-13,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,BSW,4,0.1,2025-02-13,-3.9
+2025-02-13,Wahlkreisprognose,SPD,12.5,0.2,2025-02-13,-12.3
+2025-02-13,Wahlkreisprognose,CDU/CSU,32,93.5,2025-02-13,61.5
+2025-02-13,Wahlkreisprognose,Grüne,12.5,0.1,2025-02-13,-12.4
+2025-02-13,Wahlkreisprognose,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-13,-3.9
+2025-02-13,Wahlkreisprognose,AfD,20,6,2025-02-13,-14
+2025-02-13,Wahlkreisprognose,BSW,4.5,0.1,2025-02-13,-4.4
+2025-02-14,INSA,SPD,15,0.2,2025-02-14,-14.8
+2025-02-14,INSA,CDU/CSU,4,94.5,2025-02-14,90.5
+2025-02-14,INSA,Grüne,13,0.1,2025-02-14,-12.9
+2025-02-14,INSA,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-14,-3.9
+2025-02-14,INSA,AfD,21,5.5,2025-02-14,-15.5
+2025-02-14,INSA,BSW,5,0.1,2025-02-14,-4.9
+2025-02-17,Forsa,SPD,16,0.2,2025-02-17,-15.8
+2025-02-17,Forsa,CDU/CSU,30,95.5,2025-02-17,65.5
+2025-02-17,Forsa,Grüne,13,0.1,2025-02-17,-12.9
+2025-02-17,Forsa,FDP,5,0.1,2025-02-17,-4.9
+2025-02-17,Forsa,AfD,20,4.4,2025-02-17,-15.6
+2025-02-17,Forsa,BSW,4,0.1,2025-02-17,-3.9
+2025-02-17,YouGov,SPD,17,0.2,2025-02-17,-16.8
+2025-02-17,YouGov,CDU/CSU,27,95.5,2025-02-17,68.5
+2025-02-17,YouGov,Grüne,12,0.1,2025-02-17,-11.9
+2025-02-17,YouGov,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-17,-3.9
+2025-02-17,YouGov,AfD,20,4.4,2025-02-17,-15.6
+2025-02-17,YouGov,BSW,5,0.1,2025-02-17,-4.9
+2025-02-17,INSA,SPD,15,0.2,2025-02-17,-14.8
+2025-02-17,INSA,CDU/CSU,30,95.5,2025-02-17,65.5
+2025-02-17,INSA,Grüne,13,0.1,2025-02-17,-12.9
+2025-02-17,INSA,FDP,4.5,0.1,2025-02-17,-4.4
+2025-02-17,INSA,AfD,22,4.4,2025-02-17,-17.6
+2025-02-17,INSA,BSW,5,0.1,2025-02-17,-4.9
+2025-02-18,Wahlkreisprognose,SPD,14.5,0.2,2025-02-18,-14.3
+2025-02-18,Wahlkreisprognose,CDU/CSU,30,95.8,2025-02-18,65.8
+2025-02-18,Wahlkreisprognose,Grüne,12,0.1,2025-02-18,-11.9
+2025-02-18,Wahlkreisprognose,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-18,-3.9
+2025-02-18,Wahlkreisprognose,AfD,20,4.1,2025-02-18,-15.9
+2025-02-18,Wahlkreisprognose,BSW,5,0.1,2025-02-18,-4.9
+2025-02-18,Cluster 17,SPD,15,0.2,2025-02-18,-14.8
+2025-02-18,Cluster 17,CDU/CSU,30,95.8,2025-02-18,65.8
+2025-02-18,Cluster 17,Grüne,13,0.1,2025-02-18,-12.9
+2025-02-18,Cluster 17,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-18,-3.9
+2025-02-18,Cluster 17,AfD,21,4.1,2025-02-18,-16.9
+2025-02-18,Cluster 17,BSW,4,0.1,2025-02-18,-3.9
+2025-02-19,INSA,SPD,15,0.2,2025-02-19,-14.8
+2025-02-19,INSA,CDU/CSU,30,95.6,2025-02-19,65.6
+2025-02-19,INSA,Grüne,13,0.1,2025-02-19,-12.9
+2025-02-19,INSA,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-19,-3.9
+2025-02-19,INSA,AfD,21,4.3,2025-02-19,-16.7
+2025-02-19,INSA,BSW,5,0.1,2025-02-19,-4.9
+2025-02-19,GMS,SPD,15,0.2,2025-02-19,-14.8
+2025-02-19,GMS,CDU/CSU,0,95.6,2025-02-19,95.6
+2025-02-19,GMS,Grüne,13,0.1,2025-02-19,-12.9
+2025-02-19,GMS,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-19,-3.9
+2025-02-19,GMS,AfD,20,4.3,2025-02-19,-15.7
+2025-02-19,GMS,BSW,4,0.1,2025-02-19,-3.9
+2025-02-19,Ipsos,SPD,15,0.2,2025-02-19,-14.8
+2025-02-19,Ipsos,CDU/CSU,31,95.6,2025-02-19,64.6
+2025-02-19,Ipsos,Grüne,13,0.1,2025-02-19,-12.9
+2025-02-19,Ipsos,FDP,4.5,0.1,2025-02-19,-4.4
+2025-02-19,Ipsos,AfD,20,4.3,2025-02-19,-15.7
+2025-02-19,Ipsos,BSW,4.5,0.1,2025-02-19,-4.4
+2025-02-19,YouGov,SPD,15.6,0.2,2025-02-19,-15.4
+2025-02-19,YouGov,CDU/CSU,29.9,95.6,2025-02-19,65.7
+2025-02-19,YouGov,Grüne,12.7,0.1,2025-02-19,-12.6
+2025-02-19,YouGov,FDP,4.5,0.1,2025-02-19,-4.4
+2025-02-19,YouGov,AfD,19.7,4.3,2025-02-19,-15.4
+2025-02-19,YouGov,BSW,4.6,0.1,2025-02-19,-4.5
+2025-02-20,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,SPD,16,0.1,2025-02-20,-15.9
+2025-02-20,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,CDU/CSU,28,95.6,2025-02-20,67.6
+2025-02-20,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,Grüne,14,0.1,2025-02-20,-13.9
+2025-02-20,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-20,-3.9
+2025-02-20,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,AfD,21,4.4,2025-02-20,-16.6
+2025-02-20,Forschungsgruppe Wahlen,BSW,4.5,0.1,2025-02-20,-4.4
+2025-02-20,Forsa,SPD,15,0.1,2025-02-20,-14.9
+2025-02-20,Forsa,CDU/CSU,5,95.6,2025-02-20,90.6
+2025-02-20,Forsa,Grüne,13,0.1,2025-02-20,-12.9
+2025-02-20,Forsa,FDP,5,0.1,2025-02-20,-4.9
+2025-02-20,Forsa,AfD,21,4.4,2025-02-20,-16.6
+2025-02-20,Forsa,BSW,3,0.1,2025-02-20,-2.9
+2025-02-20,YouGov,SPD,16,0.1,2025-02-20,-15.9
+2025-02-20,YouGov,CDU/CSU,29,95.6,2025-02-20,66.6
+2025-02-20,YouGov,Grüne,13,0.1,2025-02-20,-12.9
+2025-02-20,YouGov,FDP,4,0.1,2025-02-20,-3.9
+2025-02-20,YouGov,AfD,20,4.4,2025-02-20,-15.6
+2025-02-20,YouGov,BSW,5,0.1,2025-02-20,-4.9
+2025-02-20,Allensbach,SPD,14.5,0.1,2025-02-20,-14.4
+2025-02-20,Allensbach,CDU/CSU,32,95.6,2025-02-20,63.6
+2025-02-20,Allensbach,Grüne,12,0.1,2025-02-20,-11.9
+2025-02-20,Allensbach,FDP,4.5,0.1,2025-02-20,-4.4
+2025-02-20,Allensbach,AfD,20,4.4,2025-02-20,-15.6
+2025-02-20,Allensbach,BSW,4.5,0.1,2025-02-20,-4.4
+2025-02-21,Wahlkreisprognose,SPD,14.5,0.2,2025-02-21,-14.3
+2025-02-21,Wahlkreisprognose,CDU/CSU,29.5,96.8,2025-02-21,67.3
+2025-02-21,Wahlkreisprognose,Grüne,12,0.1,2025-02-21,-11.9
+2025-02-21,Wahlkreisprognose,FDP,4.5,0.1,2025-02-21,-4.4
+2025-02-21,Wahlkreisprognose,AfD,20.5,3.2,2025-02-21,-17.3
+2025-02-21,Wahlkreisprognose,BSW,4.5,0.1,2025-02-21,-4.4
+2025-02-21,Ipsos,SPD,16,0.2,2025-02-21,-15.8
+2025-02-21,Ipsos,CDU/CSU,30,96.8,2025-02-21,66.8
+2025-02-21,Ipsos,Grüne,12,0.1,2025-02-21,-11.9
+2025-02-21,Ipsos,FDP,4.5,0.1,2025-02-21,-4.4
+2025-02-21,Ipsos,AfD,21,3.2,2025-02-21,-17.8
+2025-02-21,Ipsos,BSW,4.5,0.1,2025-02-21,-4.4
+2025-02-21,INSA,SPD,15,0.2,2025-02-21,-14.8
+2025-02-21,INSA,Grüne,12.5,0.1,2025-02-21,-12.4
+2025-02-21,INSA,FDP,4.5,0.1,2025-02-21,-4.4
+2025-02-21,INSA,AfD,21,3.2,2025-02-21,-17.8
+2025-02-21,INSA,BSW,5,0.1,2025-02-21,-4.9
+2025-02-22,INSA,SPD,15,0.1,2025-02-22,-14.9
+2025-02-22,INSA,CDU/CSU,29.5,96.7,2025-02-22,67.2
+2025-02-22,INSA,Grüne,12.5,0.1,2025-02-22,-12.4
+2025-02-22,INSA,FDP,4.5,0.1,2025-02-22,-4.4
+2025-02-22,INSA,AfD,21,3.3,2025-02-22,-17.7
+2025-02-22,INSA,BSW,5,0.1,2025-02-22,-4.9

data/germany-market-odds-timeseries.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,421 @@
+date,party,polymarket_pct,volume_usd
+2024-12-17,CDU/CSU,89.5,11315209
+2024-12-17,AfD,4.1,18597089
+2024-12-17,SPD,4,15970451
+2024-12-17,Grüne,1.4,19221606
+2024-12-17,BSW,0.4,19989627
+2024-12-17,FDP,0.4,21222939
+2024-12-18,CDU/CSU,89.5,11315209
+2024-12-18,AfD,5,18597089
+2024-12-18,SPD,4,15970451
+2024-12-18,Grüne,1.3,19221606
+2024-12-18,BSW,0.4,19989627
+2024-12-18,FDP,0.4,21222939
+2024-12-19,CDU/CSU,88.5,11315209
+2024-12-19,AfD,5.1,18597089
+2024-12-19,SPD,3.3,15970451
+2024-12-19,Grüne,2.2,19221606
+2024-12-19,BSW,0.4,19989627
+2024-12-19,FDP,0.4,21222939
+2024-12-20,CDU/CSU,91,11315209
+2024-12-20,AfD,4.1,18597089
+2024-12-20,SPD,2.8,15970451
+2024-12-20,Grüne,1.9,19221606
+2024-12-20,BSW,0.3,19989627
+2024-12-20,FDP,0.3,21222939
+2024-12-21,CDU/CSU,89.5,11315209
+2024-12-21,AfD,7.5,18597089
+2024-12-21,SPD,1.9,15970451
+2024-12-21,Grüne,1.3,19221606
+2024-12-21,BSW,0.3,19989627
+2024-12-21,FDP,0.3,21222939
+2024-12-22,CDU/CSU,89.5,11315209
+2024-12-22,AfD,8.3,18597089
+2024-12-22,SPD,1.3,15970451
+2024-12-22,Grüne,0.9,19221606
+2024-12-22,BSW,0.3,19989627
+2024-12-22,FDP,0.3,21222939
+2024-12-23,CDU/CSU,85.5,11315209
+2024-12-23,AfD,13.1,18597089
+2024-12-23,SPD,0.8,15970451
+2024-12-23,Grüne,0.4,19221606
+2024-12-23,BSW,0.3,19989627
+2024-12-23,FDP,0.3,21222939
+2024-12-24,CDU/CSU,87.5,11315209
+2024-12-24,AfD,11.4,18597089
+2024-12-24,SPD,0.7,15970451
+2024-12-24,Grüne,0.5,19221606
+2024-12-24,BSW,0.3,19989627
+2024-12-24,FDP,0.3,21222939
+2024-12-25,CDU/CSU,88,11315209
+2024-12-25,AfD,8.3,18597089
+2024-12-25,SPD,0.7,15970451
+2024-12-25,Grüne,0.5,19221606
+2024-12-25,BSW,0.3,19989627
+2024-12-25,FDP,0.3,21222939
+2024-12-26,CDU/CSU,89.5,11315209
+2024-12-26,AfD,9.3,18597089
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data/germany-poly-raw.json

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"title":"Germany Parliamentary Election 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parse-germany-wiki.mjs

@@ -0,0 +1,154 @@
+/**
+ * Parser determinístico das pesquisas da Wikipedia "Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal
+ * election". Materializa o grid (rowspan/colspan), mapeia colunas->PARTIDOS pelo cabeçalho.
+ * Sistema parlamentar: voto por PARTIDO, sem 2º turno. Molde Chile/Peru. Verifica contra o resultado.
+ *
+ * Entrada: ../../AFOS-Analitica-2026/.cache/germany-wiki.html
+ * Saída: polls/germany-polls.csv (long), polls/germany-polls.json
+ */
+import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, mkdirSync } from 'fs'
+import { join } from 'path'
+
+const HTML = readFileSync(join(process.cwd(), '..', '..', 'AFOS-Analitica-2026', '.cache', 'germany-wiki.html'), 'utf-8')
+const OUT = join(process.cwd(), 'polls'); mkdirSync(OUT, { recursive: true })
+const csv = (rows) => rows.map((r) => r.map((v) => { const s = String(v ?? ''); return /[",\n]/.test(s) ? `"${s.replace(/"/g, '""')}"` : s }).join(',')).join('\n') + '\n'
+
+// PARTIDO: token-do-cabeçalho -> {name (canônico p/ join c/ mercado), party}
+const PARTY = {
+  'Grüne': { name: 'Grüne', party: 'Bündnis 90/Die Grünen' },
+  'Linke': { name: 'Die Linke', party: 'Die Linke' },
+  'Union': { name: 'CDU/CSU', party: 'Union (CDU/CSU)' },
+  'AfD': { name: 'AfD', party: 'AfD' },
+  'SPD': { name: 'SPD', party: 'SPD' },
+  'FDP': { name: 'FDP', party: 'FDP' },
+  'BSW': { name: 'BSW', party: 'Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht' },
+  'FW': { name: 'Freie Wähler', party: 'Freie Wähler' },
+}
+const TOKENS = Object.keys(PARTY)
+
+const decode = (s) => s
+  .replace(/<sup[^>]*class="[^"]*reference[^"]*"[^>]*>[\s\S]*?<\/sup>/gi, '')
+  .replace(/<style[\s\S]*?<\/style>/gi, '')
+  .replace(/<[^>]+>/g, '')
+  .replace(/&#(\d+);/g, (_, n) => String.fromCharCode(+n))
+  .replace(/&nbsp;/g, ' ').replace(/&ndash;/g, '–').replace(/&amp;/g, '&').replace(/&[a-z]+;/gi, ' ')
+  .replace(/ /g, ' ').replace(/\s+/g, ' ').trim()
+
+function tables(html) { const out = []; const re = /<table[^>]*class="[^"]*wikitable[^"]*"[\s\S]*?<\/table>/gi; let m; while ((m = re.exec(html))) out.push(m[0]); return out }
+
+function grid(tableHtml) {
+  const trs = tableHtml.split(/<tr[^>]*>/i).slice(1).map((x) => x.split(/<\/tr>/i)[0])
+  const g = []; const pending = []
+  for (const tr of trs) {
+    const cells = []; const cre = /<(t[hd])([^>]*)>([\s\S]*?)<\/\1>/gi; let cm
+    while ((cm = cre.exec(tr))) {
+      const attrs = cm[2]
+      const rs = parseInt((attrs.match(/rowspan="?(\d+)/i) || [])[1] || '1', 10)
+      const cs = parseInt((attrs.match(/colspan="?(\d+)/i) || [])[1] || '1', 10)
+      cells.push({ text: decode(cm[3]), rs, cs })
+    }
+    const row = []; let col = 0; let ci = 0
+    const place = (text) => { row[col] = text; col++ }
+    while (ci < cells.length || pending.some((p) => p.rows > 0)) {
+      const p = pending.find((x) => x.col === col && x.rows > 0)
+      if (p) { for (let k = 0; k < p.span; k++) place(p.text); p.rows--; continue }
+      if (ci >= cells.length) break
+      const c = cells[ci++]
+      for (let k = 0; k < c.cs; k++) { const cc = col; place(c.text); if (c.rs > 1) pending.push({ col: cc, span: 1, rows: c.rs - 1, text: c.text }) }
+    }
+    g.push(row)
+  }
+  return g
+}
+
+function labelColumns(g) {
+  const headerRows = g.slice(0, 4)
+  const ncol = Math.max(...g.map((r) => r.length))
+  const labels = []
+  for (let c = 0; c < ncol; c++) {
+    const texts = headerRows.map((r) => r[c] || '')
+    let label = null
+    for (const tk of TOKENS) if (texts.some((t) => t === tk || t.split(/[ /]/).includes(tk))) { label = `cand:${tk}`; break }
+    if (!label) {
+      const joined = texts.join(' ').toLowerCase()
+      if (/pollster|firm/.test(joined)) label = 'pollster'
+      else if (/sample/.test(joined)) label = 'sample'
+      else if (/margin/.test(joined)) label = 'margin'
+      else if (/fieldwork|date/.test(joined)) label = 'date'
+      else if (/other/.test(joined)) label = 'other'
+      else if (/abstention|lead/.test(joined)) label = 'skip'
+    }
+    labels.push(label)
+  }
+  return labels
+}
+
+const MONTHS = { jan: '01', feb: '02', mar: '03', apr: '04', may: '05', jun: '06', jul: '07', aug: '08', sep: '09', oct: '10', nov: '11', dec: '12' }
+function endDate(s, fy) {
+  if (!s) return ''
+  const last = s.split(/[–-]/).pop().trim()
+  const ym = s.match(/([A-Za-z]{3})[a-z]*\s+(\d{4})/)
+  let day, mon, year
+  const mm = last.match(/(\d{1,2})\s+([A-Za-z]{3})[a-z]*\s+(\d{4})/)
+  if (mm) { day = mm[1]; mon = MONTHS[mm[2].toLowerCase()]; year = mm[3] }
+  else { const d = last.match(/(\d{1,2})/); const monM = last.match(/([A-Za-z]{3})/) || s.match(/([A-Za-z]{3})/); day = d ? d[1] : null; mon = monM ? MONTHS[monM[1].toLowerCase()] : null; year = ym ? ym[2] : fy }
+  if (!day || !mon || !year) return ''
+  return `${year}-${mon}-${String(day).padStart(2, '0')}`
+}
+const num = (s) => { const m = String(s).replace(/,/g, '').match(/-?\d+(?:\.\d+)?/); return m ? parseFloat(m[0]) : null }
+const sampleNum = (s) => { const t = String(s || '').replace(/[.,\s]/g, ''); return /^\d+$/.test(t) ? parseInt(t, 10) : null }
+const isData = (txt) => txt && !/^pollster|^firm|^date|^sample|^margin|^other|^abstention|^lead|results?$/i.test(txt) && txt.length > 1
+
+const polls = []
+const allTables = tables(HTML)
+allTables.forEach((t, ti) => {
+  const g = grid(t)
+  const labels = labelColumns(g)
+  const candCols = labels.map((l, i) => ({ l, i })).filter((x) => x.l && x.l.startsWith('cand:'))
+  if (candCols.length < 4) return
+  const colOf = (name) => labels.indexOf(name)
+  const pc = colOf('pollster'), dc = colOf('date'), sc = colOf('sample')
+  if (pc < 0 || dc < 0) return
+  const yc = {}; for (const row of g) { const m = String(row[dc] || '').match(/\b(20\d\d)\b/); if (m) yc[m[1]] = (yc[m[1]] || 0) + 1 }
+  const tableYear = Object.keys(yc).sort((a, b) => yc[b] - yc[a])[0] || '2025'
+  let kept = 0
+  for (const row of g) {
+    const pollster = row[pc]
+    if (!isData(pollster)) continue
+    const date = row[dc]; const iso = endDate(date, tableYear)
+    if (!iso) continue
+    if (iso < '2024-01-01' || iso > '2025-02-23') continue
+    if (pollster.length > 40) continue
+    if (/election|result|\b(19|20)\d\d\b/.test(pollster)) continue
+    const sample = sc >= 0 ? sampleNum(row[sc]) : null
+    if (sample && sample > 200000) continue
+    const results = []
+    for (const { l, i } of candCols) { const tk = l.slice(5); const v = num(row[i]); if (v != null && v <= 100) results.push({ token: tk, candidate: PARTY[tk].name, party: PARTY[tk].party, percent: v }) }
+    if (results.length < 4) continue
+    if (results.every((r) => r.percent === results[0].percent)) continue
+    polls.push({ poll_date: iso, fieldwork: date, pollster: pollster.replace(/\s*\(.*/, '').trim(), sample, results })
+    kept++
+  }
+  if (kept > 0) console.error(`  tabela #${ti}: ${candCols.length} partidos, ${kept} linhas`)
+})
+
+const m = new Map()
+for (const p of polls) { const k = `${p.pollster}|${p.poll_date}`; const prev = m.get(k); if (!prev || p.results.length > prev.results.length) m.set(k, p) }
+const POLLS = [...m.values()].sort((a, b) => a.poll_date.localeCompare(b.poll_date))
+
+const rows = [['poll_date', 'fieldwork', 'pollster', 'sample', 'party', 'party_full', 'percent']]
+for (const p of POLLS) for (const r of p.results) rows.push([p.poll_date, p.fieldwork, p.pollster, p.sample ?? '', r.candidate, r.party, r.percent])
+writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'germany-polls.csv'), csv(rows))
+writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'germany-polls.json'), JSON.stringify({
+  description: 'National opinion polls for the 2025 German federal election (Bundestag) — party vote share. Parliamentary system: one vote, no runoff. Parsed deterministically from the Wikipedia aggregation (rowspan/colspan-aware).',
+  source: 'Wikipedia "Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election" (rendered table HTML)',
+  election: { date: '2025-02-23', type: 'Federal (Bundestag)', note: 'Snap election after the November 2024 coalition collapse.' },
+  counts: { polls: POLLS.length, rows: rows.length - 1 },
+  polls: POLLS,
+}, null, 2))
+
+console.log(`pesquisas: ${POLLS.length} (${rows.length - 1} linhas)`)
+const parties = new Set(); for (const p of POLLS) for (const r of p.results) parties.add(r.candidate)
+console.log(`partidos: ${parties.size} (${[...parties].join(', ')})`)
+const last = POLLS.slice(-1)[0]
+console.log(`CHECK pesquisa mais recente (esperado ~Union 28-29 / AfD 20-21 / SPD 15-16 / Grüne 12 / Linke 8): ${last ? last.poll_date + ' ' + last.pollster + ' ' + JSON.stringify(last.results.map((r) => [r.candidate, r.percent])) : 'n/a'}`)