# Datasheet — Colombia 2026 Electoral Divergence Electoral Divergence Dataset
Following Datasheets for Datasets (Gebru et al., 2021; arXiv:1803.09010). Part of the AFOS Analytics validated-cases collection, cross-referencing prediction market x opinion polls x press against the official result.
1. Motivation
Created by AFOS Analytics (independent, self-funded) to document, in an auditable form, the divergence between prediction markets, opinion polls and press narrative for this election (Abelardo de la Espriella × Iván Cepeda). Use for research on market-vs-poll calibration, teaching, and replication of the AFOS divergence method.
2. Composition
Several observational units, each in its own table: a poll x party/candidate estimate (polls/), a daily market-implied probability (market-odds-timeseries), a divergence record (divergence), structural context (structural-context), and press items (news/). Instance counts and columns are enumerated per file in datapackage.json and DATA_DICTIONARY.md. Values are transcribed from public aggregates; nothing is imputed. No personal or sensitive data.
3. Collection process
Polls parsed deterministically from the public Wikipedia polling aggregation (CC BY-SA) by the shipped parse/build scripts; original pollsters credited. Market data from Polymarket on-chain via the AFOS server-side proxy. Structural context from the World Bank (WGI, WDI). Official result from the national electoral authority. Election dates: first round 2026-05-31, runoff 2026-06-21; status completed.
4. Preprocessing / cleaning
Poll and market series are emitted in tidy long format (one row per poll x party/candidate, or date x party). Missing source values are left empty; nothing is smoothed except where a column is explicitly labelled as an average (e.g. a moving average). Raw market pulls are shipped as poly-raw JSON.
5. Uses
Supports the AFOS validated-case narrative and divergence analysis. Should NOT be read as a causal claim, nor as an official tally; the market-implied probability is not the same quantity as a vote share. Known limitation: poll aggregations may not carry sponsor/mode/question-wording/weighting per row (recoverable via each poll source).
6. Distribution
Hugging Face Hub (https://huggingface.co/datasets/AFOS-Analytics1/colombia-2026-electoral-divergence); mirrored on GitHub; Harvard Dataverse DOI 10.7910/DVN/X7JUEG. License: data CC BY 4.0, code Apache 2.0. Upstream provenance and terms: the poll numbers are facts released by the named pollsters, and they were read from the Wikipedia polling aggregation, which is published under CC BY-SA. AFOS releases its own contribution, meaning the parsing, the joining and the divergence tables, under CC BY 4.0. Anyone reusing the poll tables should credit the original pollsters and observe the terms of the Wikipedia aggregation the tables were read from. No redistribution-restricted source is included. Reproduction files across the two surfaces. The parser, and the raw snapshot where one is shipped, live in the Hugging Face repository above, which is the reference copy for reproduction. The Harvard Dataverse deposit is the citable archival copy and does not carry the parser, because that repository's upload filter rejects scripts of this kind; any reproduction input the deposit does not carry remains available on Hugging Face.
7. Maintenance
Maintained by AFOS Analytics (afos-analytics.com). Corrections and versioning via the repository; the shipped parser regenerates derived files from source. Country ISO3: COL.