FINAL-Bench/Darwin-Prediction-Weather
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š¦ļø Which weather model is most accurate? We score them every day, in the open.
We released two things on Hugging Face:
š Global Weather Model Leaderboard
Every day it records what each global model predicted for 24 world cities, compares it with what actually happened (ERA5), and updates the ranking. ECMWF IFS and AIFS, NOAA GFS and AIGFS, DWD ICON, JMA, ECCC GEM, MET Norway, side by side, on the same cases, since 1 January 2026.
Four elements, four tabs: max temperature, min temperature, wind, precipitation. Forecast leads from 1 to 7 days, with 8 to 10 days joining as they are verified.
š§¬ Darwin-Prediction-Weather
VIDRAFT's weather prediction system: a fusion engine that combines global forecasts, learning only from days already observed. It holds the lowest error in all four elements at every lead on the 2026 record, and the lowest error in all 15 evaluated cells of the WeatherBench 2 (2020) protocol.
What the 2026 record shows so far:
ā¢ AI models now lead physics models at the major centres (AIFS vs IFS, AIGFS vs GFS)
ā¢ Fusion goes further: 7-day max temperature RMSE 2.09 Ā°C vs 2.41 Ā°C for the next model
Also inside: yesterday's results with a daily WIN for the closest model, a 10-day outlook for every city, champions by city and by month, and a Live Earth map with wind, clouds, radar and temperature.
Every forecast and every observed value is open as CSV, so anyone can check the scores.
š Article: https://huggingface.co/blog/FINAL-Bench/which-weather-model-is-most-accurate-we-score-them
š Leaderboard: FINAL-Bench/Weather-Model-Leaderboard
š§¬ Model: FINAL-Bench/Darwin-Prediction-Weather
š Daily record: FINAL-Bench/Weather-Model-Forecast-Archive
Questions, corrections and new models to add are welcome.
We released two things on Hugging Face:
š Global Weather Model Leaderboard
Every day it records what each global model predicted for 24 world cities, compares it with what actually happened (ERA5), and updates the ranking. ECMWF IFS and AIFS, NOAA GFS and AIGFS, DWD ICON, JMA, ECCC GEM, MET Norway, side by side, on the same cases, since 1 January 2026.
Four elements, four tabs: max temperature, min temperature, wind, precipitation. Forecast leads from 1 to 7 days, with 8 to 10 days joining as they are verified.
š§¬ Darwin-Prediction-Weather
VIDRAFT's weather prediction system: a fusion engine that combines global forecasts, learning only from days already observed. It holds the lowest error in all four elements at every lead on the 2026 record, and the lowest error in all 15 evaluated cells of the WeatherBench 2 (2020) protocol.
What the 2026 record shows so far:
ā¢ AI models now lead physics models at the major centres (AIFS vs IFS, AIGFS vs GFS)
ā¢ Fusion goes further: 7-day max temperature RMSE 2.09 Ā°C vs 2.41 Ā°C for the next model
Also inside: yesterday's results with a daily WIN for the closest model, a 10-day outlook for every city, champions by city and by month, and a Live Earth map with wind, clouds, radar and temperature.
Every forecast and every observed value is open as CSV, so anyone can check the scores.
š Article: https://huggingface.co/blog/FINAL-Bench/which-weather-model-is-most-accurate-we-score-them
š Leaderboard: FINAL-Bench/Weather-Model-Leaderboard
š§¬ Model: FINAL-Bench/Darwin-Prediction-Weather
š Daily record: FINAL-Bench/Weather-Model-Forecast-Archive
Questions, corrections and new models to add are welcome.
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