Upload fast-st-us-v1 model-card.md

fast-st-us-v1/model-card.md

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+# FAST-ST US v1
+
+U.S.-only cross-domain checkpoint trained on 24-metro weather, Hugging Face METR-LA, and Hugging Face PEMS-BAY.
+
+Parameters: 17,073,141
+
+## Metrics
+
+```json
+{
+  "aggregate": {
+    "geometric_relative_mae_vs_persistence": 0.85365,
+    "geometric_relative_mae_vs_temporal_only": 0.941333,
+    "improvement_vs_persistence_pct": 14.635,
+    "joint_nll_per_target": 2.583812,
+    "mean_interval_80_coverage": 0.713562,
+    "normalized_energy_score": 30.509663,
+    "spatial_adapter_improvement_pct": 5.867
+  },
+  "by_series": {
+    "metr-la-hf-v1": {
+      "improvement_vs_persistence_pct": 1.5,
+      "interval_80_coverage": 0.819737,
+      "mae": 4.196768,
+      "persistence_mae": 4.260657,
+      "rmse": 8.30598,
+      "spatial_adapter_improvement_pct": 1.963,
+      "temporal_only_mae": 4.28082
+    },
+    "pems-bay-hf-v1": {
+      "improvement_vs_persistence_pct": -0.719,
+      "interval_80_coverage": 0.837067,
+      "mae": 2.129876,
+      "persistence_mae": 2.114676,
+      "rmse": 4.97047,
+      "spatial_adapter_improvement_pct": 5.399,
+      "temporal_only_mae": 2.251428
+    },
+    "relative_humidity_2m": {
+      "improvement_vs_persistence_pct": 19.518,
+      "interval_80_coverage": 0.561415,
+      "mae": 10.96932,
+      "persistence_mae": 13.629557,
+      "rmse": 14.757423,
+      "spatial_adapter_improvement_pct": 1.987,
+      "temporal_only_mae": 11.191728
+    },
+    "surface_pressure": {
+      "improvement_vs_persistence_pct": 16.744,
+      "interval_80_coverage": 0.805122,
+      "mae": 2.623894,
+      "persistence_mae": 3.151583,
+      "rmse": 3.847738,
+      "spatial_adapter_improvement_pct": 5.985,
+      "temporal_only_mae": 2.790937
+    },
+    "temperature_2m": {
+      "improvement_vs_persistence_pct": 29.927,
+      "interval_80_coverage": 0.717665,
+      "mae": 2.262233,
+      "persistence_mae": 3.228385,
+      "rmse": 3.03163,
+      "spatial_adapter_improvement_pct": 14.579,
+      "temporal_only_mae": 2.648331
+    },
+    "wind_speed_10m": {
+      "improvement_vs_persistence_pct": 16.927,
+      "interval_80_coverage": 0.540365,
+      "mae": 3.713698,
+      "persistence_mae": 4.470378,
+      "rmse": 5.043218,
+      "spatial_adapter_improvement_pct": 4.692,
+      "temporal_only_mae": 3.896505
+    }
+  }
+}
+```
+
+## Gates
+
+```json
+{
+  "beats_persistence_aggregate": true,
+  "coverage_calibrated": true,
+  "finite_joint_score": true,
+  "huggingface_corpora_present": true,
+  "spatial_adapter_material": true,
+  "us_only_manifests": true
+}
+```