import argparse import json import pandas as pd from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score, precision_score, recall_score, f1_score ALLOWED_SPLITS = { "train", "in_domain_test", "boundary_trap", "distribution_shift", "counterfactual_intervention" } ALLOWED_TRAPS = { "false_stability", "boundary_masking", "trajectory_aliasing", "temporal_alias", "intervention_decoy" } ALLOWED_DIFFICULTY = { "easy", "medium", "hard" } LOW_BOUNDARY_THRESHOLD = 0.10 HIGH_DRIFT_THRESHOLD = 0.05 def load_csv(path): return pd.read_csv(path) def validate_columns(preds, truth): if "scenario_id" not in preds.columns or "prediction" not in preds.columns: raise ValueError("Predictions must contain scenario_id and prediction columns") required_truth = { "scenario_id", "split_type", "pair_id", "pair_role", "difficulty_level", "pressure_obs_t0", "pressure_obs_t1", "pressure_obs_t2", "buffer_obs_t0", "buffer_obs_t1", "buffer_obs_t2", "true_label", "trap_type", "trap_active", "boundary_distance", "drift_gradient", "drift_acceleration", "recovery_feasibility", "regime_competition_ratio", "intervention_action", "intervention_magnitude", "boundary_distance_before", "boundary_distance_after", "intervention_effect_direction" } missing = required_truth - set(truth.columns) if missing: raise ValueError(f"Truth missing required columns: {sorted(missing)}") def validate_values(preds, truth): bad_pred = set(preds["prediction"].dropna().unique()) - {0, 1} if bad_pred: raise ValueError("Predictions must contain only 0 or 1") bad_label = set(truth["true_label"].dropna().unique()) - {0, 1} if bad_label: raise ValueError("true_label must contain only 0 or 1") bad_trap = set(truth["trap_active"].dropna().unique()) - {0, 1} if bad_trap: raise ValueError("trap_active must contain only 0 or 1") unknown_splits = set(truth["split_type"].dropna().unique()) - ALLOWED_SPLITS if unknown_splits: raise ValueError(f"Unknown split_type values: {sorted(unknown_splits)}") trap_values = set(truth["trap_type"].dropna().unique()) unknown_traps = trap_values - ALLOWED_TRAPS if unknown_traps: raise ValueError(f"Unknown trap_type values: {sorted(unknown_traps)}") unknown_difficulty = set(truth["difficulty_level"].dropna().unique()) - ALLOWED_DIFFICULTY if unknown_difficulty: raise ValueError(f"Unknown difficulty_level values: {sorted(unknown_difficulty)}") if "intervention_effect_direction" in preds.columns: bad_dir = set(preds["intervention_effect_direction"].dropna().unique()) - {-1, 0, 1} if bad_dir: raise ValueError("Predicted intervention_effect_direction must be one of -1, 0, 1") valid_pair_roles = {"safe_pair", "unstable_pair"} pair_roles = set(truth["pair_role"].dropna().unique()) - valid_pair_roles if pair_roles: raise ValueError(f"Unknown pair_role values: {sorted(pair_roles)}") def validate_ids(df, name): if df["scenario_id"].isna().any(): raise ValueError(f"{name} contains missing scenario_id values") ids = df["scenario_id"].astype(str).str.strip() if (ids == "").any(): raise ValueError(f"{name} contains blank scenario_id values") if ids.duplicated().any(): dupes = ids[ids.duplicated()].unique().tolist() raise ValueError(f"{name} duplicate scenario_id values: {dupes[:10]}") df = df.copy() df["scenario_id"] = ids return df def compute_basic_metrics(y_true, y_pred): return { "accuracy": float(accuracy_score(y_true, y_pred)), "precision": float(precision_score(y_true, y_pred, zero_division=0)), "recall": float(recall_score(y_true, y_pred, zero_division=0)), "f1": float(f1_score(y_true, y_pred, zero_division=0)), "rows_evaluated": int(len(y_true)) } def compute_split_accuracy(df, split_name): subset = df[df["split_type"] == split_name] if subset.empty: return None return float(accuracy_score(subset["true_label"], subset["prediction"])) def compute_trap_accuracy(df, trap_type=None): subset = df[df["trap_active"] == 1] if trap_type: subset = subset[subset["trap_type"] == trap_type] if subset.empty: return None return float(accuracy_score(subset["true_label"], subset["prediction"])) def compute_difficulty_accuracy(df, difficulty_level): subset = df[df["difficulty_level"] == difficulty_level] if subset.empty: return None return float(accuracy_score(subset["true_label"], subset["prediction"])) def compute_geometry_diagnostics(df): results = {} low_boundary = df[ (df["true_label"] == 1) & (df["boundary_distance"] <= LOW_BOUNDARY_THRESHOLD) ] if low_boundary.empty: results["low_boundary_distance_miss_rate"] = None else: misses = (low_boundary["prediction"] == 0).sum() results["low_boundary_distance_miss_rate"] = float(misses / len(low_boundary)) high_drift = df[ (df["true_label"] == 1) & (df["drift_gradient"] >= HIGH_DRIFT_THRESHOLD) ] if high_drift.empty: results["high_drift_gradient_miss_rate"] = None else: misses = (high_drift["prediction"] == 0).sum() results["high_drift_gradient_miss_rate"] = float(misses / len(high_drift)) return results def compute_counterfactual_metrics(df): results = { "counterfactual_intervention_accuracy": None, "intervention_effect_direction_accuracy": None } subset = df[df["split_type"] == "counterfactual_intervention"] if subset.empty: return results results["counterfactual_intervention_accuracy"] = float( accuracy_score(subset["true_label"], subset["prediction"]) ) if "predicted_intervention_effect_direction" in subset.columns: valid = subset.dropna(subset=["intervention_effect_direction", "predicted_intervention_effect_direction"]) if not valid.empty: results["intervention_effect_direction_accuracy"] = float( accuracy_score( valid["intervention_effect_direction"], valid["predicted_intervention_effect_direction"] ) ) return results def compute_pair_discrimination_accuracy(df): paired = df[df["pair_id"].notna()].copy() if paired.empty: return None correct = 0 total = 0 for pair_id, group in paired.groupby("pair_id"): if len(group) != 2: continue roles = set(group["pair_role"]) if roles != {"safe_pair", "unstable_pair"}: continue unstable_row = group[group["pair_role"] == "unstable_pair"].iloc[0] safe_row = group[group["pair_role"] == "safe_pair"].iloc[0] ok = (unstable_row["prediction"] == 1) and (safe_row["prediction"] == 0) correct += int(ok) total += 1 if total == 0: return None return float(correct / total) def compute_support_counts(df): return { "train_support": int((df["split_type"] == "train").sum()), "in_domain_test_support": int((df["split_type"] == "in_domain_test").sum()), "boundary_trap_support": int((df["split_type"] == "boundary_trap").sum()), "distribution_shift_support": int((df["split_type"] == "distribution_shift").sum()), "counterfactual_intervention_support": int((df["split_type"] == "counterfactual_intervention").sum()), "trap_support": int((df["trap_active"] == 1).sum()) } def compute_casses_score(results): weights = { "in_domain_test_accuracy": 0.18, "boundary_trap_accuracy": 0.20, "distribution_shift_accuracy": 0.17, "trap_accuracy": 0.15, "counterfactual_intervention_accuracy": 0.15, "trajectory_pair_discrimination_accuracy": 0.15 } score = 0 weight_sum = 0 for metric, weight in weights.items(): value = results.get(metric) if value is not None: score += value * weight weight_sum += weight if weight_sum == 0: return None return score / weight_sum def score(predictions_path, truth_path): preds = load_csv(predictions_path) truth = load_csv(truth_path) validate_columns(preds, truth) validate_values(preds, truth) preds = validate_ids(preds, "Predictions") truth = validate_ids(truth, "Truth") if "intervention_effect_direction" in preds.columns: preds = preds.rename(columns={ "intervention_effect_direction": "predicted_intervention_effect_direction" }) pred_ids = set(preds["scenario_id"]) truth_ids = set(truth["scenario_id"]) if pred_ids != truth_ids: missing = sorted(list(truth_ids - pred_ids))[:10] extra = sorted(list(pred_ids - truth_ids))[:10] raise ValueError( f"scenario_id mismatch. Missing in predictions: {missing}. Extra in predictions: {extra}" ) merged = truth.merge(preds, on="scenario_id", how="inner", validate="one_to_one") merged = merged.sort_values("scenario_id").reset_index(drop=True) y_true = merged["true_label"] y_pred = merged["prediction"] results = compute_basic_metrics(y_true, y_pred) results["train_accuracy"] = compute_split_accuracy(merged, "train") results["in_domain_test_accuracy"] = compute_split_accuracy(merged, "in_domain_test") results["boundary_trap_accuracy"] = compute_split_accuracy(merged, "boundary_trap") results["distribution_shift_accuracy"] = compute_split_accuracy(merged, "distribution_shift") results["trap_accuracy"] = compute_trap_accuracy(merged) results["false_stability_accuracy"] = compute_trap_accuracy(merged, "false_stability") results["boundary_masking_accuracy"] = compute_trap_accuracy(merged, "boundary_masking") results["trajectory_aliasing_accuracy"] = compute_trap_accuracy(merged, "trajectory_aliasing") results["temporal_alias_accuracy"] = compute_trap_accuracy(merged, "temporal_alias") results["intervention_decoy_accuracy"] = compute_trap_accuracy(merged, "intervention_decoy") results["easy_accuracy"] = compute_difficulty_accuracy(merged, "easy") results["medium_accuracy"] = compute_difficulty_accuracy(merged, "medium") results["hard_accuracy"] = compute_difficulty_accuracy(merged, "hard") indomain = results["in_domain_test_accuracy"] shift = results["distribution_shift_accuracy"] if indomain is not None and shift is not None: results["manifold_generalization_gap"] = float(indomain - shift) else: results["manifold_generalization_gap"] = None results.update(compute_geometry_diagnostics(merged)) results.update(compute_counterfactual_metrics(merged)) results["trajectory_pair_discrimination_accuracy"] = compute_pair_discrimination_accuracy(merged) results.update(compute_support_counts(merged)) results["casses_score"] = compute_casses_score(results) return results def main(): parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() parser.add_argument("--predictions", required=True) parser.add_argument("--truth", required=True) args = parser.parse_args() results = score(args.predictions, args.truth) print(json.dumps(results, indent=2)) if __name__ == "__main__": main()