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Parent(s): cbf5a73
AFOS · USA 2024 Electoral Divergence — initial dataset (market × polls × press, honest two-market case)
Browse files- .gitattributes +1 -60
- CITATION.cff +30 -0
- DATA_DICTIONARY.md +83 -0
- LICENSE +45 -0
- LICENSE-APACHE-2.0 +190 -0
- LICENSE-CC-BY-4.0 +45 -0
- README.md +148 -0
- banner.png +3 -0
- build-usa-divergence.mjs +97 -0
- build-usa-press-timeline.mjs +59 -0
- data/usa-case-summary.json +32 -0
- data/usa-divergence-timeseries.csv +219 -0
- data/usa-poll-aggregate-timeseries.csv +1323 -0
- data/usa-popularvote-market-timeseries.csv +616 -0
- data/usa-popularvote-poly-raw.json +0 -0
- data/usa-winner-market-timeseries.csv +614 -0
- data/usa-winner-poly-raw.json +0 -0
- polls/usa-national-polls.csv +0 -0
- press/usa-2024-press-timeline.csv +8 -0
- press/usa-2024-press-timeline.json +92 -0
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CITATION.cff
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cff-version: 1.2.0
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message: "If you use this dataset, please cite it as below."
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title: "AFOS · USA 2024 Electoral Divergence Dataset"
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abstract: >-
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Open dataset cross-referencing opinion polls, prediction markets and press
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coverage for the 2024 U.S. presidential election (Harris vs Trump), with
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explicit poll-versus-market divergence rather than a blended average — and
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reported honestly, including where the market was wrong. On the eve of the
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vote the electoral-college winner market (US$3.7bn) favored Trump and was
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right, while the popular-vote market favored Harris and erred; the national
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polls were a near-tie. Poll toplines come from FiveThirtyEight's public 2024
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database (via the Internet Archive Wayback snapshot of 4 Nov 2024); market
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odds from Polymarket; press anchors are Wayback-archived.
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type: dataset
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authors:
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- name: "AFOS Analytics"
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website: "https://afos-analytics.com"
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keywords:
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- elections
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- United States
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- prediction markets
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- opinion polls
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- press
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- divergence
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- open data
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license: CC-BY-4.0
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repository: "https://huggingface.co/datasets/AFOS-Analytics1/usa-2024-electoral-divergence"
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url: "https://afos-analytics.com"
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version: "2026.06"
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date-released: "2026-06-19"
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DATA_DICTIONARY.md
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# Data Dictionary — AFOS USA 2024 Electoral Divergence
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> 🌐 **EN** — Data dictionary for the AFOS USA 2024 electoral-divergence dataset (polls × prediction markets × press). · **PT** — Dicionário de dados do dataset AFOS EUA 2024 (pesquisas × mercados de previsão × imprensa). · **ES** — Diccionario de datos del dataset AFOS EE. UU. 2024 (encuestas × mercados de predicción × prensa).
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> Column names and definitions below are kept in **English** (CSV/academic standard). · Os nomes e definições de coluna seguem em **inglês** (padrão dos CSVs). · Los nombres y definiciones se mantienen en **inglés**.
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Poll figures trace to a named pollster's published release, compiled from **FiveThirtyEight's** public 2024 president-poll database (Wayback snapshot of 4 Nov 2024). Market odds come from public Polymarket markets; press anchors are public articles archived in the Wayback Machine. Nothing is imputed or smoothed; missing values are left **blank**.
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## `polls/usa-national-polls.csv` (long format)
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One row per candidate per poll. National general-election polls only (state = blank, stage = general, cycle = 2024), Harris & Trump. 3,691 rows.
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| Column | Type | Notes |
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|--------|------|-------|
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| `poll_id` | integer | FiveThirtyEight poll identifier. |
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| `pollster` | string | Polling firm (e.g. "Siena/NYT", "Marquette Law School", "Emerson"). |
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| `end_date` | date | End of fieldwork (`YYYY-MM-DD`). |
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| `sample_size` | integer | Sample size. |
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| `population` | string | Sampled population: `lv` (likely voters), `rv` (registered voters), `a` (all adults). |
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| `numeric_grade` | number | FiveThirtyEight pollster quality rating (0–3 scale), where published. |
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| `methodology` | string | Survey mode (e.g. "Online Panel", "Live Phone", "IVR/Online"). |
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| `candidate` | string | `Harris` or `Trump`. |
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| `pct` | number | National voting intention for that candidate, %. |
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| `source_url` | string | Primary source URL for the poll, as recorded by FiveThirtyEight. |
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## `data/usa-winner-market-timeseries.csv` — PRIMARY AXIS (electoral college)
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Daily Polymarket win-probability from the **"Presidential Election Winner 2024"** market (who becomes president; total volume ≈ US$ 3.7 bn — the largest election market in history). 613 rows.
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| Column | Type | Notes |
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|--------|------|-------|
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| `date` | date | `YYYY-MM-DD` (daily fidelity). |
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| `candidate` | string | `Trump` or `Harris`. |
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| `win_prob_pct` | number | Implied probability of **winning the presidency**, % (0–100). |
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## `data/usa-popularvote-market-timeseries.csv` — COUNTERPOINT (popular vote)
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Daily Polymarket win-probability from the **"Popular Vote Winner 2024"** market (who wins more popular votes; total volume ≈ US$ 628 M). This is the market that favored Harris and **erred**. 615 rows. Same columns as the winner series; `win_prob_pct` = implied probability of **winning the popular vote**.
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## `data/usa-poll-aggregate-timeseries.csv`
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Trailing 7-day simple average of national poll vote share. 1,322 rows.
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| Column | Type | Notes |
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|--------|------|-------|
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| `date` | date | `YYYY-MM-DD`. |
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| `candidate` | string | `Trump` or `Harris`. |
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| `poll_vote_share_pct_7dma` | number | 7-day trailing average of national vote-share polls ending on or before `date`, %. |
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## `data/usa-divergence-timeseries.csv`
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Market × poll divergence for the Harris–Trump head-to-head period (after Biden withdrew, 21 Jul 2024). 218 rows. **Axis = the winner (electoral-college) market.**
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| Column | Type | Notes |
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|--------|------|-------|
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| `date` | date | `YYYY-MM-DD` (market date). |
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| `candidate` | string | `Trump` or `Harris`. |
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| `market_win_prob_pct` | number | Winner-market implied probability of **winning the presidency**, %. |
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| `poll_vote_share_pct` | number | National poll **vote share** (7-day trailing average), %. |
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| `naive_gap_pp` | number | `market_win_prob_pct − poll_vote_share_pct`, in percentage points. **Different units** (probability vs share): reported raw, **not scale-reconciled**. The sign and trajectory are the signal, not the magnitude. |
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## `press/usa-2024-press-timeline.csv`
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Curated, Wayback-archived press anchors cross-referencing the market×poll divergence. 7 rows.
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| Column | Type | Notes |
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|--------|------|-------|
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| `date` | date | Article publication date (`YYYY-MM-DD`). |
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| `outlet` | string | Publishing outlet (Fortune, Al Jazeera, NBC News, NPR, PBS NewsHour, CNN). |
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| `headline` | string | Exact article headline. |
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| `theme` | string | `market_poll_divergence` · `poll_near_tie` · `market_conviction_whale` · `result_validator` · `market_vindicated` · `poll_accuracy_postmortem`. |
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| `axis` | string | Which AFOS axis the anchor maps to (`market`, `poll`, `market×poll`, `result`). |
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| `tier` | string | `anchor` (core) or `secondary`. |
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| `primary_source` | string | Underlying primary source where the carrier differs (e.g. "Associated Press (race call)", "Wall Street Journal (original)"). |
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| `url` | string | Live article URL (verified HTTP 200). |
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| `wayback_url` | string | Internet Archive Wayback Machine snapshot (permanent citation). |
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## `data/usa-case-summary.json`
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Machine-readable summary of the validated case: result (electoral college + popular vote), both markets with eve-of-vote probabilities and verdict, final poll average, and the honesty note (two markets disagreed; the validator is the real result).
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## Raw provenance
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`data/usa-winner-poly-raw.json` and `data/usa-popularvote-poly-raw.json` — raw Polymarket payloads (event metadata + per-candidate daily price histories) for both markets, kept verbatim for provenance.
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
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=========================================================
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The DATA in this dataset (CSV files, JSON snapshots, polls, and news-link
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metadata) is licensed by AFOS Analytics under the Creative Commons
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Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
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The complete and legally binding text of this license is available at:
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
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and is incorporated here by reference. A human-readable summary is at:
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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------------------------------------------------------------------------
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You are free to:
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• Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format.
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• Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose,
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even commercially.
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The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the
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license terms.
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Under the following terms:
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• Attribution — You must give appropriate credit to AFOS Analytics,
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provide a link to this license, and indicate if changes were made.
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You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that
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| 31 |
+
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------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 38 |
+
Recommended attribution:
|
| 39 |
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|
| 40 |
+
"AFOS Analytics — Brazil 2026 Electoral Divergence Dataset
|
| 41 |
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(https://afos-analytics.com), CC BY 4.0."
|
| 42 |
+
|
| 43 |
+
NOTE ON SCOPE: This file governs the DATA. Any code or scripts distributed
|
| 44 |
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in this repository are licensed separately under the Apache License 2.0
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| 45 |
+
(see LICENSE-APACHE-2.0).
|
LICENSE-APACHE-2.0
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,190 @@
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Copyright 2026 AFOS-Analytics
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LICENSE-CC-BY-4.0
ADDED
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|
| 1 |
+
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
|
| 2 |
+
=========================================================
|
| 3 |
+
|
| 4 |
+
The DATA in this dataset (CSV files, JSON snapshots, polls, and news-link
|
| 5 |
+
metadata) is licensed by AFOS Analytics under the Creative Commons
|
| 6 |
+
Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
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| 7 |
+
|
| 8 |
+
The complete and legally binding text of this license is available at:
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| 9 |
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode
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| 11 |
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|
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+
and is incorporated here by reference. A human-readable summary is at:
|
| 13 |
+
|
| 14 |
+
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
|
| 15 |
+
|
| 16 |
+
------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 17 |
+
You are free to:
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| 18 |
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+
• Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format.
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| 20 |
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• Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose,
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+
even commercially.
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+
The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the
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license terms.
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Under the following terms:
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| 27 |
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|
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+
• Attribution — You must give appropriate credit to AFOS Analytics,
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provide a link to this license, and indicate if changes were made.
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You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that
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suggests AFOS Analytics endorses you or your use.
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+
• No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or
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technological measures that legally restrict others from doing
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+
anything the license permits.
|
| 36 |
+
|
| 37 |
+
------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
| 38 |
+
Recommended attribution:
|
| 39 |
+
|
| 40 |
+
"AFOS Analytics — Brazil 2026 Electoral Divergence Dataset
|
| 41 |
+
(https://afos-analytics.com), CC BY 4.0."
|
| 42 |
+
|
| 43 |
+
NOTE ON SCOPE: This file governs the DATA. Any code or scripts distributed
|
| 44 |
+
in this repository are licensed separately under the Apache License 2.0
|
| 45 |
+
(see LICENSE-APACHE-2.0).
|
README.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,148 @@
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| 1 |
+
---
|
| 2 |
+
license:
|
| 3 |
+
- cc-by-4.0
|
| 4 |
+
- apache-2.0
|
| 5 |
+
language:
|
| 6 |
+
- en
|
| 7 |
+
- es
|
| 8 |
+
- pt
|
| 9 |
+
pretty_name: "AFOS · USA 2024 Electoral Divergence"
|
| 10 |
+
tags:
|
| 11 |
+
- elections
|
| 12 |
+
- usa
|
| 13 |
+
- prediction-markets
|
| 14 |
+
- polls
|
| 15 |
+
- press
|
| 16 |
+
- political-risk
|
| 17 |
+
- divergence
|
| 18 |
+
- open-data
|
| 19 |
+
---
|
| 20 |
+
|
| 21 |
+
|
| 22 |
+
|
| 23 |
+
# AFOS · USA 2024 Electoral Divergence Dataset
|
| 24 |
+
|
| 25 |
+
🌐 **[English](#english) · [Español](#español) · [Português](#português)**
|
| 26 |
+
|
| 27 |
+
Open dataset cross-referencing **opinion polls × prediction markets × press coverage** for the **2024 U.S. presidential election** (election day 5 November 2024, Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump), built in the same spirit as the AFOS Brazil 2026 dataset: sources are reported side by side with **explicit divergence**, not blended into a single average — **including where the market was wrong.**
|
| 28 |
+
|
| 29 |
+
Maintained by **[AFOS Analytics](https://afos-analytics.com)**. Part of AFOS's expansion of its electoral-divergence method beyond Brazil. *No personal data — only public electoral information.*
|
| 30 |
+
|
| 31 |
+
---
|
| 32 |
+
|
| 33 |
+
## English
|
| 34 |
+
|
| 35 |
+
**What makes 2024 a uniquely honest case: two markets disagreed.**
|
| 36 |
+
|
| 37 |
+
On the eve of the vote (4 Nov 2024), Polymarket's two big election markets pointed in **opposite directions** — and the result vindicated one while refuting the other:
|
| 38 |
+
|
| 39 |
+
| Signal | Eve of vote (4 Nov) | Result | Verdict |
|
| 40 |
+
|--------|--------------------|--------|---------|
|
| 41 |
+
| **Winner market** (electoral college, **US$ 3.7 bn** — the largest election market in history) | **Trump 56.4%** × Harris 43.5% | Trump won the presidency (312–226) | ✅ **right** |
|
| 42 |
+
| **Popular-vote market** (US$ 628 M) | Trump 25.7% × **Harris 74.1%** | Trump won the popular vote | ❌ **wrong** |
|
| 43 |
+
| **National polls** (7-day avg vote share) | Trump 47.8% × Harris 48.4% (near-tie) | Trump +1.5pp (49.8% × 48.3%) | within margin of error |
|
| 44 |
+
|
| 45 |
+
The winner market's **conviction that Trump would win** ran well ahead of a poll near-tie — and was validated. The popular-vote market did the opposite, favoring Harris, and **missed** (a Republican had not won the popular vote since 2004). The polls, often maligned, landed close. **We report all three — the market's hit and its miss — because the validator is the real result, not a flattering narrative.**
|
| 46 |
+
|
| 47 |
+
**Contents (start with the polls):**
|
| 48 |
+
|
| 49 |
+
| Path | Rows | Content |
|
| 50 |
+
|------|------|---------|
|
| 51 |
+
| `polls/usa-national-polls.csv` | 3,691 | National general-election voting intention (**Harris & Trump**), long format (one row per candidate × poll), from **FiveThirtyEight's** 2024 poll database. Full provenance: pollster, rating, methodology, sample, population (LV/RV/A), source URL. |
|
| 52 |
+
| `data/usa-winner-market-timeseries.csv` | 613 | **PRIMARY AXIS.** Daily Polymarket win-probability (Trump & Harris) from the **"Presidential Election Winner 2024"** market — electoral college, **US$ 3.7 bn** total volume. |
|
| 53 |
+
| `data/usa-popularvote-market-timeseries.csv` | 615 | **COUNTERPOINT.** Daily win-probability from the **"Popular Vote Winner 2024"** market (US$ 628 M) — the market that favored Harris and erred. |
|
| 54 |
+
| `data/usa-poll-aggregate-timeseries.csv` | 1,322 | 7-day trailing average of national poll vote share (Trump & Harris). |
|
| 55 |
+
| `data/usa-divergence-timeseries.csv` | 218 | **Market × poll divergence** — winner-market win-probability vs poll vote share, daily, for the Harris–Trump head-to-head period (after Biden withdrew, 21 Jul 2024). |
|
| 56 |
+
| `press/usa-2024-press-timeline.csv` | 7 | **Curated, Wayback-archived press timeline** cross-referencing the market×poll tension as it unfolded (the AFOS press axis). |
|
| 57 |
+
| `data/usa-case-summary.json` | — | Validated-case summary (result, both markets, polls, honesty note). |
|
| 58 |
+
| `data/usa-winner-poly-raw.json`, `data/usa-popularvote-poly-raw.json` | — | Raw Polymarket payloads (event + per-candidate price histories), kept for provenance. |
|
| 59 |
+
|
| 60 |
+
<sub>Market data fetched from Polymarket's gamma-api + clob (US-resolving function). The divergence axis uses the **winner (electoral-college) market**, because that is where the market diverged from the poll near-tie and was validated; the popular-vote market is included in full as an honest counterpoint. `naive_gap_pp` = market *win-probability* − poll *vote share*: different units (probability vs share), reported raw and **not scale-reconciled**.</sub>
|
| 61 |
+
|
| 62 |
+
### ⚖️ The reading — why divergence (and honesty) beats the average
|
| 63 |
+
|
| 64 |
+
- **Winner market × polls — the validated signal.** Through the Harris–Trump race the winner market kept Trump favored to *win* (probability ~49–63%) while national polls measured a near-tie in *vote share* (Trump ~45–48%). The market's conviction led the poll near-tie by roughly **+3 to +16 points** of win-probability, and the result (Trump) validated it.
|
| 65 |
+
- **Popular-vote market — the honest miss.** The same platform's popular-vote market favored **Harris (74% on the eve)** and was wrong: Trump won the popular vote (49.8% × 48.3%). Two markets, opposite calls, one right and one wrong — a caution that prediction markets are **not monolithic and not infallible.**
|
| 66 |
+
- **The polls were close.** 2024 national polls clustered around a tie; Trump's +1.5pp popular-vote win sat within normal polling error. This was **not** a "polling failure" — a point the post-election coverage makes explicitly (see the press timeline).
|
| 67 |
+
|
| 68 |
+
### 📰 Press timeline — the third axis (market × poll × **press**)
|
| 69 |
+
|
| 70 |
+
The defining meta-story of 2024 was the **market-versus-polls divergence itself**, covered in real time. Each anchor below was verified live and **preserved in the Internet Archive Wayback Machine** for permanent citation. Primary sources (AP race call, WSJ "Théo" original) are attributed even where linked via an accessible carrier (NPR/PBS/NBC).
|
| 71 |
+
|
| 72 |
+
| Date | Outlet | Maps to | Headline |
|
| 73 |
+
|------|--------|---------|----------|
|
| 74 |
+
| 18 Oct 2024 | Fortune | market × poll diverge | "A handful of pro-Trump bettors have dumped more than $25 million into Polymarket, swaying election odds in his favor" |
|
| 75 |
+
| 21 Oct 2024 | Al Jazeera | poll near-tie | "Early voting in full swing… Harris and Trump tied in polls" |
|
| 76 |
+
| 24 Oct 2024 | NBC News *(orig. WSJ)* | market conviction | "French trader bet over $28 million on Trump election win using 4 Polymarket accounts" |
|
| 77 |
+
| 6 Nov 2024 | NPR *(orig. AP)* | result (validator) | "Donald Trump wins the White House, according to AP race call" |
|
| 78 |
+
| 6 Nov 2024 | PBS NewsHour *(orig. AP)* | result (validator) | "AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania" |
|
| 79 |
+
| 8 Nov 2024 | CNN | market vindicated | "How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn't" |
|
| 80 |
+
| 30 Nov 2024 | NBC News | poll post-mortem (honesty) | "What the 2024 polls got right — and what they got wrong" |
|
| 81 |
+
|
| 82 |
+
Full URLs and Wayback snapshots in [`press/usa-2024-press-timeline.csv`](press/usa-2024-press-timeline.csv) / [`.json`](press/usa-2024-press-timeline.json).
|
| 83 |
+
|
| 84 |
+
### Provenance, attribution & license
|
| 85 |
+
|
| 86 |
+
**Polls — FiveThirtyEight (CC BY 4.0).** Poll toplines come from FiveThirtyEight's public 2024 president-poll database. FiveThirtyEight was wound down in 2025 and its live endpoint no longer serves the CSV; this dataset uses the **Internet Archive Wayback Machine snapshot of 4 Nov 2024** ([archived CSV](https://web.archive.org/web/20241104120000id_/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/data/president_polls.csv)) — a frozen, permanently citable copy. The CC BY 4.0 attribution obligation does not lapse with the site: please credit **FiveThirtyEight / ABC News** (compiler) and the **original polling firms** (e.g. NYT/Siena, Marquette, Emerson, Quinnipiac). Nothing is imputed or smoothed; missing values are left blank.
|
| 87 |
+
|
| 88 |
+
**Market odds** come from the public Polymarket markets. **Press** anchors are public articles, archived in the Wayback Machine.
|
| 89 |
+
|
| 90 |
+
**License (dual):** **data** → CC BY 4.0 (`LICENSE-CC-BY-4.0`); **code/scripts** → Apache 2.0 (`LICENSE-APACHE-2.0`), matching the AFOS repo root and Hugging Face mirror. Please attribute **AFOS Analytics**, **FiveThirtyEight / ABC News**, and the **original pollsters**.
|
| 91 |
+
|
| 92 |
+
**Cite:** *AFOS Analytics. USA 2024 Electoral Divergence Dataset. Hugging Face, 2026. CC BY 4.0.* (see `CITATION.cff`)
|
| 93 |
+
|
| 94 |
+
**Disclaimer:** observational research. Not investment advice, not voting guidance.
|
| 95 |
+
|
| 96 |
+
---
|
| 97 |
+
|
| 98 |
+
## Español
|
| 99 |
+
|
| 100 |
+
Dataset abierto que cruza **encuestas × mercados de predicción × cobertura de prensa** para la **elección presidencial de EE. UU. 2024** (5 nov 2024, Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump), con **divergencia explícita** entre fuentes — **incluido dónde el mercado se equivocó.**
|
| 101 |
+
|
| 102 |
+
**Lo que hace de 2024 un caso singularmente honesto: dos mercados se contradijeron.** En la víspera (4 nov):
|
| 103 |
+
|
| 104 |
+
- **Mercado de ganador** (colegio electoral, **US$ 3,7 bn**, el mayor mercado electoral de la historia): **Trump 56,4%** × Harris 43,5% → **acertó** (Trump ganó la presidencia, 312–226).
|
| 105 |
+
- **Mercado de voto popular** (US$ 628 M): Trump 25,7% × **Harris 74,1%** → **se equivocó** (Trump ganó el voto popular; ningún republicano lo ganaba desde 2004).
|
| 106 |
+
- **Encuestas** (promedio 7 días): Trump 47,8% × Harris 48,4% (empate técnico); resultado Trump +1,5pp (49,8% × 48,3%), dentro del margen de error.
|
| 107 |
+
|
| 108 |
+
El eje de divergencia usa el **mercado de ganador** (donde el mercado divergió del empate de las encuestas y fue validado); el de voto popular se incluye completo como **contrapunto honesto**. `naive_gap_pp` = *probabilidad de ganar* del mercado − *voto* de la encuesta (unidades distintas, sin reconciliar).
|
| 109 |
+
|
| 110 |
+
- `polls/usa-national-polls.csv` — intención de voto nacional (Harris & Trump), formato largo, de la base de FiveThirtyEight (3.691 filas).
|
| 111 |
+
- `data/usa-winner-market-timeseries.csv` / `usa-popularvote-market-timeseries.csv` — probabilidad diaria de Polymarket (colegio = eje; voto popular = contrapunto).
|
| 112 |
+
- `data/usa-divergence-timeseries.csv` — divergencia mercado × encuesta (probabilidad de ganar vs voto), periodo Harris–Trump.
|
| 113 |
+
- `press/usa-2024-press-timeline.csv` — **línea de tiempo de prensa curada y archivada en Wayback** (mercado × encuesta × prensa).
|
| 114 |
+
|
| 115 |
+
**La lectura:** el mercado de ganador acertó frente al empate de las encuestas (señal validada); el de voto popular falló (contrapunto honesto); las encuestas quedaron cerca. **El validador es el resultado real, no un relato favorable.**
|
| 116 |
+
|
| 117 |
+
**Fuentes/licencia:** encuestas de FiveThirtyEight / ABC News (CC BY 4.0, vía snapshot de Wayback del 4 nov 2024) — atribuir a FiveThirtyEight y a las encuestadoras originales; odds de Polymarket; prensa archivada en Wayback. Licencia dual: datos CC BY 4.0, scripts Apache 2.0. Atribuir a **AFOS Analytics**. Investigación observacional; no es asesoría de inversión ni orientación de voto.
|
| 118 |
+
|
| 119 |
+
---
|
| 120 |
+
|
| 121 |
+
## Português
|
| 122 |
+
|
| 123 |
+
Dataset aberto cruzando **pesquisas × mercados de previsão × cobertura de imprensa** para a **eleição presidencial dos EUA 2024** (5/nov/2024, Kamala Harris × Donald Trump), com **divergência explícita** entre fontes — **inclusive onde o mercado errou.**
|
| 124 |
+
|
| 125 |
+
**O que torna 2024 um caso singularmente honesto: dois mercados se contradisseram.** Na véspera (4/nov):
|
| 126 |
+
|
| 127 |
+
- **Mercado de vencedor** (colégio eleitoral, **US$ 3,7 bi**, o maior mercado eleitoral da história): **Trump 56,4%** × Harris 43,5% → **acertou** (Trump venceu a presidência, 312–226).
|
| 128 |
+
- **Mercado de voto popular** (US$ 628 M): Trump 25,7% × **Harris 74,1%** → **errou** (Trump venceu o voto popular; republicano não ganhava o voto popular desde 2004).
|
| 129 |
+
- **Pesquisas** (média de 7 dias): Trump 47,8% × Harris 48,4% (empate técnico); resultado Trump +1,5pp (49,8% × 48,3%), dentro da margem de erro.
|
| 130 |
+
|
| 131 |
+
O eixo de divergência usa o **mercado de vencedor** (onde o mercado divergiu do empate das pesquisas e foi validado); o de voto popular entra completo como **contraponto honesto**. `naive_gap_pp` = *probabilidade de vencer* do mercado − *voto* da pesquisa (unidades diferentes, não reconciliado).
|
| 132 |
+
|
| 133 |
+
- `polls/usa-national-polls.csv` — intenção de voto nacional (Harris & Trump), formato longo, da base do FiveThirtyEight (3.691 linhas).
|
| 134 |
+
- `data/usa-winner-market-timeseries.csv` / `usa-popularvote-market-timeseries.csv` — probabilidade diária do Polymarket (colégio = eixo; voto popular = contraponto).
|
| 135 |
+
- `data/usa-divergence-timeseries.csv` — divergência mercado × pesquisa (probabilidade de vencer vs voto), período Harris–Trump.
|
| 136 |
+
- `press/usa-2024-press-timeline.csv` — **linha do tempo de imprensa curada e arquivada no Wayback** (mercado × pesquisa × imprensa).
|
| 137 |
+
|
| 138 |
+
### ⚖️ A leitura — por que a divergência (e a honestidade) supera a média
|
| 139 |
+
|
| 140 |
+
- **Mercado de vencedor × pesquisas — o sinal validado.** O mercado manteve Trump favorito a *vencer* (~49–63%) enquanto as pesquisas mediam empate no *voto* (~45–48%). A convicção do mercado ia +3 a +16 pontos à frente do empate — e o resultado (Trump) validou.
|
| 141 |
+
- **Mercado de voto popular — o erro honesto.** O mesmo Polymarket dava **Harris (74% na véspera)** e errou. Dois mercados, chamadas opostas, um certo e um errado — alerta de que mercados de previsão **não são monolíticos nem infalíveis.**
|
| 142 |
+
- **As pesquisas ficaram perto.** Trump +1,5pp no voto popular ficou dentro do erro amostral; não foi "pesquisa furada" (a imprensa pós-eleição diz isso explicitamente).
|
| 143 |
+
|
| 144 |
+
**Fontes/licença:** pesquisas do FiveThirtyEight / ABC News (CC BY 4.0, via snapshot do Wayback de 4/nov/2024) — atribuir ao FiveThirtyEight e aos institutos originais; odds do Polymarket; imprensa arquivada no Wayback. Licença dual: dados CC BY 4.0, scripts Apache 2.0. Atribuir a **AFOS Analytics**. Pesquisa observacional; não é recomendação de investimento nem orientação de voto.
|
| 145 |
+
|
| 146 |
+
---
|
| 147 |
+
|
| 148 |
+
**Sources / Fuentes / Fontes:** [FiveThirtyEight 2024 president polls](https://web.archive.org/web/20241104120000id_/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/data/president_polls.csv) (CC BY 4.0, via Wayback) · Polymarket (winner + popular-vote markets) · curated press (AP/NPR/PBS, Fortune, CNN, NBC, Al Jazeera — Wayback-archived). Column definitions in [`DATA_DICTIONARY.md`](DATA_DICTIONARY.md).
|
banner.png
ADDED
|
Git LFS Details
|
build-usa-divergence.mjs
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, copyFileSync } from 'node:fs'
|
| 2 |
+
const OUT = '.cache/usa2024/dataset'
|
| 3 |
+
const day = t => new Date(t*1000).toISOString().slice(0,10)
|
| 4 |
+
|
| 5 |
+
// ---------- helper: extrai série diária Trump/Harris de um mercado ----------
|
| 6 |
+
function marketSeries(path, label){
|
| 7 |
+
const j = JSON.parse(readFileSync(path,'utf8'))
|
| 8 |
+
const want = {'Donald Trump':'Trump','Kamala Harris':'Harris'}
|
| 9 |
+
const byDate = {}
|
| 10 |
+
for (const o of j.odds){
|
| 11 |
+
const cn = want[o.candidate]; if(!cn) continue
|
| 12 |
+
for (const h of (o.history||[])){ const d=day(h.t); byDate[d]=byDate[d]||{}; byDate[d][cn]=h.p*100 }
|
| 13 |
+
}
|
| 14 |
+
// CSV
|
| 15 |
+
let csv='date,candidate,win_prob_pct\n'
|
| 16 |
+
const dates=Object.keys(byDate).sort()
|
| 17 |
+
for(const d of dates) for(const c of ['Trump','Harris']) if(byDate[d][c]!=null) csv+=`${d},${c},${byDate[d][c].toFixed(2)}\n`
|
| 18 |
+
return {byDate, dates, csv, title:j.title, totalVol:j.odds.reduce((s,o)=>s+(o.volume||0),0)}
|
| 19 |
+
}
|
| 20 |
+
|
| 21 |
+
const winner = marketSeries('.cache/usa2024/poly-winner-raw.json','winner') // EIXO PRIMÁRIO (colégio)
|
| 22 |
+
const popvote = marketSeries('.cache/usa2024/poly-popularvote-raw.json','popvote') // CONTRAPONTO (voto popular)
|
| 23 |
+
writeFileSync(`${OUT}/data/usa-winner-market-timeseries.csv`, winner.csv)
|
| 24 |
+
writeFileSync(`${OUT}/data/usa-popularvote-market-timeseries.csv`, popvote.csv)
|
| 25 |
+
copyFileSync('.cache/usa2024/poly-winner-raw.json', `${OUT}/data/usa-winner-poly-raw.json`)
|
| 26 |
+
copyFileSync('.cache/usa2024/poly-popularvote-raw.json', `${OUT}/data/usa-popularvote-poly-raw.json`)
|
| 27 |
+
|
| 28 |
+
// ---------- 538 national polls (Harris/Trump general 2024) ----------
|
| 29 |
+
const txt = readFileSync('.cache/usa2024/president_polls.csv','utf8')
|
| 30 |
+
function parse(line){const out=[];let cur='';let q=false;for(let i=0;i<line.length;i++){const c=line[i];if(c==='"'){if(q&&line[i+1]==='"'){cur+='"';i++}else q=!q}else if(c===','&&!q){out.push(cur);cur=''}else cur+=c}out.push(cur);return out}
|
| 31 |
+
const L=txt.split(/\r?\n/); const H=parse(L[0]); const ix=n=>H.indexOf(n)
|
| 32 |
+
const C={cycle:ix('cycle'),stage:ix('stage'),state:ix('state'),cand:ix('candidate_name'),pct:ix('pct'),end:ix('end_date'),poll:ix('pollster'),samp:ix('sample_size'),pop:ix('population'),grade:ix('numeric_grade'),meth:ix('methodology'),url:ix('url'),pid:ix('poll_id')}
|
| 33 |
+
const norm=d=>{const m=(d||'').match(/^(\d+)\/(\d+)\/(\d+)/);if(!m)return null;return `${2000+ +m[3]}-${String(+m[1]).padStart(2,'0')}-${String(+m[2]).padStart(2,'0')}`}
|
| 34 |
+
let polls='poll_id,pollster,end_date,sample_size,population,numeric_grade,methodology,candidate,pct,source_url\n'
|
| 35 |
+
const rows=[]
|
| 36 |
+
for(let k=1;k<L.length;k++){
|
| 37 |
+
if(!L[k])continue; const f=parse(L[k])
|
| 38 |
+
if(f[C.cycle]!=='2024')continue
|
| 39 |
+
if(!/general/i.test(f[C.stage]||''))continue
|
| 40 |
+
if((f[C.state]||'').trim()!=='')continue
|
| 41 |
+
const cand=f[C.cand]||''; const key=/Harris/.test(cand)?'Harris':(/Trump/.test(cand)?'Trump':null); if(!key)continue
|
| 42 |
+
const ed=norm(f[C.end]); if(!ed)continue
|
| 43 |
+
const pct=parseFloat(f[C.pct]); if(isNaN(pct))continue
|
| 44 |
+
const esc=s=>{s=String(s||'');return /[",\n]/.test(s)?'"'+s.replace(/"/g,'""')+'"':s}
|
| 45 |
+
polls+=[f[C.pid],esc(f[C.poll]),ed,f[C.samp],f[C.pop],f[C.grade],esc(f[C.meth]),key,pct,esc(f[C.url])].join(',')+'\n'
|
| 46 |
+
rows.push({date:ed,cand:key,pct})
|
| 47 |
+
}
|
| 48 |
+
writeFileSync(`${OUT}/polls/usa-national-polls.csv`, polls)
|
| 49 |
+
|
| 50 |
+
// aggregate: média móvel trailing 7d por data
|
| 51 |
+
const datesPoll=[...new Set(rows.map(r=>r.date))].sort()
|
| 52 |
+
function trailingAvg(d,cand){
|
| 53 |
+
const lo=new Date(new Date(d)-6*86400000).toISOString().slice(0,10)
|
| 54 |
+
const a=rows.filter(r=>r.cand===cand&&r.date<=d&&r.date>=lo).map(r=>r.pct)
|
| 55 |
+
return a.length?a.reduce((s,x)=>s+x,0)/a.length:null
|
| 56 |
+
}
|
| 57 |
+
let aggCsv='date,candidate,poll_vote_share_pct_7dma\n'
|
| 58 |
+
for(const d of datesPoll) for(const c of ['Trump','Harris']){const v=trailingAvg(d,c); if(v!=null) aggCsv+=`${d},${c},${v.toFixed(2)}\n`}
|
| 59 |
+
writeFileSync(`${OUT}/data/usa-poll-aggregate-timeseries.csv`, aggCsv)
|
| 60 |
+
|
| 61 |
+
// ---------- DIVERGÊNCIA: EIXO = colégio (P win) × pesquisa (vote share 7dma) ----------
|
| 62 |
+
// só período Harris×Trump (pós-saída de Biden: 2024-07-21). Honestidade: naive_gap = P(win) - vote_share (unidades diferentes)
|
| 63 |
+
const START='2024-07-21'
|
| 64 |
+
let div='date,candidate,market_win_prob_pct,poll_vote_share_pct,naive_gap_pp\n'
|
| 65 |
+
let n=0
|
| 66 |
+
for(const d of winner.dates){
|
| 67 |
+
if(d<START) continue
|
| 68 |
+
for(const c of ['Trump','Harris']){
|
| 69 |
+
const mp=winner.byDate[d]?.[c]; const pp=trailingAvg(d,c)
|
| 70 |
+
if(mp==null||pp==null)continue
|
| 71 |
+
div+=`${d},${c},${mp.toFixed(2)},${pp.toFixed(2)},${(mp-pp).toFixed(2)}\n`; n++
|
| 72 |
+
}
|
| 73 |
+
}
|
| 74 |
+
writeFileSync(`${OUT}/data/usa-divergence-timeseries.csv`, div)
|
| 75 |
+
|
| 76 |
+
// ---------- RESUMO (caso validado) ----------
|
| 77 |
+
const eve='2024-11-04'
|
| 78 |
+
const summary={
|
| 79 |
+
case:'USA 2024 Presidential Election',
|
| 80 |
+
result:{winner:'Donald Trump',electoral_college:'Trump 312 × Harris 226',popular_vote:'Trump 49.8% × Harris 48.3% (Trump +1.5pp)'},
|
| 81 |
+
winner_market:{slug:'presidential-election-winner-2024',total_volume_usd:Math.round(winner.totalVol),eve_2024_11_04:{Trump:winner.byDate[eve]?.Trump,Harris:winner.byDate[eve]?.Harris},verdict:'RIGHT — favored Trump, Trump won'},
|
| 82 |
+
popularvote_market:{slug:'presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024',total_volume_usd:Math.round(popvote.totalVol),eve_2024_11_04:{Trump:popvote.byDate[eve]?.Trump,Harris:popvote.byDate[eve]?.Harris},verdict:'WRONG — favored Harris, Trump won the popular vote'},
|
| 83 |
+
polls_final:{Trump:trailingAvg('2024-11-04','Trump')?.toFixed(2),Harris:trailingAvg('2024-11-04','Harris')?.toFixed(2),note:'near-tie / slight Trump in 7dma; within MoE'},
|
| 84 |
+
honesty:'Two markets disagreed: the winner (EC) market called Trump (right) vs the poll near-tie; the popular-vote market favored Harris (wrong). Result vindicated the EC market and refuted the popular-vote market. naive_gap = P(win) − vote_share (different units, not scale-reconciled).'
|
| 85 |
+
}
|
| 86 |
+
writeFileSync(`${OUT}/data/usa-case-summary.json`, JSON.stringify(summary,null,2))
|
| 87 |
+
|
| 88 |
+
// console
|
| 89 |
+
console.log('WINNER (EC) US$', (winner.totalVol/1e9).toFixed(2)+'bi | véspera: Trump', winner.byDate[eve].Trump.toFixed(1)+'% Harris', winner.byDate[eve].Harris.toFixed(1)+'% → CERTO')
|
| 90 |
+
console.log('POP-VOTE US$', Math.round(popvote.totalVol/1e6)+'M | véspera: Trump', popvote.byDate[eve].Trump.toFixed(1)+'% Harris', popvote.byDate[eve].Harris.toFixed(1)+'% → ERRADO')
|
| 91 |
+
console.log('PESQUISAS 7dma véspera: Trump', trailingAvg('2024-11-04','Trump').toFixed(1)+'% Harris', trailingAvg('2024-11-04','Harris').toFixed(1)+'%')
|
| 92 |
+
console.log('538 polls:', rows.length, 'linhas |', datesPoll.length, 'datas | divergência (Harris×Trump pós-21/Jul):', n, 'linhas')
|
| 93 |
+
console.log('\n=== trajetória DIVERGÊNCIA (colégio P-win Trump × pesquisa voto Trump) ===')
|
| 94 |
+
for(const D of ['2024-08-01','2024-09-01','2024-10-01','2024-11-01','2024-11-04']){
|
| 95 |
+
const l=div.split('\n').find(x=>x.startsWith(D+',Trump,'))
|
| 96 |
+
if(l){const[,, m,p,g]=l.split(','); console.log(` ${D} mercado P(win)=${m}% pesquisa voto=${p}% gap=${g}pp`)}
|
| 97 |
+
}
|
build-usa-press-timeline.mjs
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
import { writeFileSync, mkdirSync } from 'node:fs'
|
| 2 |
+
mkdirSync('.cache/usa2024/dataset/press', { recursive: true })
|
| 3 |
+
|
| 4 |
+
const wb = ts => u => `https://web.archive.org/web/${ts}/${u}`
|
| 5 |
+
const items = [
|
| 6 |
+
{ date:'2024-10-18', outlet:'Fortune', headline:'A handful of pro-Trump bettors have dumped more than $25 million into Polymarket, swaying election odds in his favor',
|
| 7 |
+
theme:'market_poll_divergence', axis:'market×poll', tier:'anchor', primary_source:'Fortune',
|
| 8 |
+
url:'https://fortune.com/2024/10/18/presidential-election-odds-pro-trump-bettors-polymarket-political-polls-harris/',
|
| 9 |
+
wayback:'https://web.archive.org/web/20241129060301/https://fortune.com/2024/10/18/presidential-election-odds-pro-trump-bettors-polymarket-political-polls-harris/',
|
| 10 |
+
note:'A imprensa documenta o sinal AFOS em tempo real: a Polymarket precifica Trump enquanto as pesquisas dão empate.' },
|
| 11 |
+
{ date:'2024-10-21', outlet:'Al Jazeera', headline:'Early voting in full swing in US election, Harris and Trump tied in polls',
|
| 12 |
+
theme:'poll_near_tie', axis:'poll', tier:'secondary', primary_source:'Al Jazeera',
|
| 13 |
+
url:'https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/21/early-voting-in-full-swing-in-us-election-harris-and-trump-tied-in-polls',
|
| 14 |
+
wayback:'https://web.archive.org/web/20241216020649/https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/21/early-voting-in-full-swing-in-us-election-harris-and-trump-tied-in-polls',
|
| 15 |
+
note:'O eixo das pesquisas: empate técnico nacional na reta final.' },
|
| 16 |
+
{ date:'2024-10-24', outlet:'NBC News', headline:'French trader bet over $28 million on Trump election win using 4 Polymarket accounts',
|
| 17 |
+
theme:'market_conviction_whale', axis:'market', tier:'anchor', primary_source:'Wall Street Journal (original)',
|
| 18 |
+
url:'https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/french-trader-bet-28-million-trump-election-win-4-polymarket-accounts-rcna177106',
|
| 19 |
+
wayback:'https://web.archive.org/web/20241108234051/https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/french-trader-bet-28-million-trump-election-win-4-polymarket-accounts-rcna177106',
|
| 20 |
+
note:'O apostador "Théo" move o mercado de vencedor; debate sobre convicção do mercado vs. ruído.' },
|
| 21 |
+
{ date:'2024-11-06', outlet:'NPR', headline:'Donald Trump wins the White House, according to AP race call',
|
| 22 |
+
theme:'result_validator', axis:'result', tier:'anchor', primary_source:'Associated Press (race call)',
|
| 23 |
+
url:'https://www.npr.org/2024/11/06/nx-s1-5173680/donald-trump-wins-the-white-house-according-to-ap-race-call',
|
| 24 |
+
wayback:'https://web.archive.org/web/20241127010218/https://www.npr.org/2024/11/06/nx-s1-5173680/donald-trump-wins-the-white-house-according-to-ap-race-call',
|
| 25 |
+
note:'O validador: a AP declara Trump vencedor. Confirma o mercado de colégio, refuta o de voto popular.' },
|
| 26 |
+
{ date:'2024-11-06', outlet:'PBS NewsHour', headline:'AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania',
|
| 27 |
+
theme:'result_validator', axis:'result', tier:'anchor', primary_source:'Associated Press (race call)',
|
| 28 |
+
url:'https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ap-race-call-donald-trump-wins-pennsylvania',
|
| 29 |
+
wayback:'https://web.archive.org/web/20241216191106/https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ap-race-call-donald-trump-wins-pennsylvania',
|
| 30 |
+
note:'A chamada decisiva da Pensilvânia, que selou o colégio eleitoral.' },
|
| 31 |
+
{ date:'2024-11-08', outlet:'CNN Business', headline:'How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t',
|
| 32 |
+
theme:'market_vindicated', axis:'market×poll', tier:'anchor', primary_source:'CNN',
|
| 33 |
+
url:'https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/business/polymarket-election-trump-nightcap',
|
| 34 |
+
wayback:'https://web.archive.org/web/20241213142942/https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/business/polymarket-election-trump-nightcap/',
|
| 35 |
+
note:'Pós-resultado: o mercado de colégio acertou onde a pesquisa via empate. (Mas o de voto popular errou, ver contraponto.)' },
|
| 36 |
+
{ date:'2024-11-30', outlet:'NBC News', headline:'What the 2024 polls got right — and what they got wrong',
|
| 37 |
+
theme:'poll_accuracy_postmortem', axis:'poll', tier:'anchor', primary_source:'NBC News',
|
| 38 |
+
url:'https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/2024-polls-got-right-got-wrong-trump-harris-rcna181105',
|
| 39 |
+
wayback:'https://web.archive.org/web/20241213221827/https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/2024-polls-got-right-got-wrong-trump-harris-rcna181105',
|
| 40 |
+
note:'Honestidade: as pesquisas de 2024 ficaram perto (empate, Trump +1,5 no limite do erro). Não foi "pesquisa furada".' },
|
| 41 |
+
]
|
| 42 |
+
|
| 43 |
+
// CSV
|
| 44 |
+
let csv = 'date,outlet,headline,theme,axis,tier,primary_source,url,wayback_url\n'
|
| 45 |
+
const esc = s => { s=String(s||''); return /[",\n]/.test(s)?'"'+s.replace(/"/g,'""')+'"':s }
|
| 46 |
+
for (const i of items) csv += [i.date,esc(i.outlet),esc(i.headline),i.theme,esc(i.axis),i.tier,esc(i.primary_source),i.url,i.wayback].join(',')+'\n'
|
| 47 |
+
writeFileSync('.cache/usa2024/dataset/press/usa-2024-press-timeline.csv', csv)
|
| 48 |
+
|
| 49 |
+
// JSON (pro app)
|
| 50 |
+
writeFileSync('.cache/usa2024/dataset/press/usa-2024-press-timeline.json', JSON.stringify({
|
| 51 |
+
case:'USA 2024 Presidential Election',
|
| 52 |
+
description:'Curated, Wayback-archived press coverage cross-referencing the market×poll divergence as it unfolded. Anchors map to AFOS axes: poll near-tie, market conviction (winner market favored Trump), result (AP race call), and honest post-mortem.',
|
| 53 |
+
method:'Each anchor verified live (HTTP 200) and preserved via the Internet Archive Wayback Machine for permanent citation. Prestige primary sources (AP race call, WSJ Théo original) attributed even where linked via an accessible carrier (NPR/PBS/NBC).',
|
| 54 |
+
count: items.length,
|
| 55 |
+
items
|
| 56 |
+
}, null, 2))
|
| 57 |
+
|
| 58 |
+
console.log('=== LINHA DO TEMPO DE IMPRENSA (', items.length, 'âncoras, todas Wayback-arquivadas) ===')
|
| 59 |
+
for (const i of items) console.log(`${i.date} [${i.tier}] ${i.outlet}: ${i.headline.slice(0,70)}... (${i.theme})`)
|
data/usa-case-summary.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"case": "USA 2024 Presidential Election",
|
| 3 |
+
"result": {
|
| 4 |
+
"winner": "Donald Trump",
|
| 5 |
+
"electoral_college": "Trump 312 × Harris 226",
|
| 6 |
+
"popular_vote": "Trump 49.8% × Harris 48.3% (Trump +1.5pp)"
|
| 7 |
+
},
|
| 8 |
+
"winner_market": {
|
| 9 |
+
"slug": "presidential-election-winner-2024",
|
| 10 |
+
"total_volume_usd": 3686335059,
|
| 11 |
+
"eve_2024_11_04": {
|
| 12 |
+
"Trump": 56.35,
|
| 13 |
+
"Harris": 43.5
|
| 14 |
+
},
|
| 15 |
+
"verdict": "RIGHT — favored Trump, Trump won"
|
| 16 |
+
},
|
| 17 |
+
"popularvote_market": {
|
| 18 |
+
"slug": "presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024",
|
| 19 |
+
"total_volume_usd": 628163458,
|
| 20 |
+
"eve_2024_11_04": {
|
| 21 |
+
"Trump": 25.650000000000002,
|
| 22 |
+
"Harris": 74.1
|
| 23 |
+
},
|
| 24 |
+
"verdict": "WRONG — favored Harris, Trump won the popular vote"
|
| 25 |
+
},
|
| 26 |
+
"polls_final": {
|
| 27 |
+
"Trump": "47.83",
|
| 28 |
+
"Harris": "48.38",
|
| 29 |
+
"note": "near-tie / slight Trump in 7dma; within MoE"
|
| 30 |
+
},
|
| 31 |
+
"honesty": "Two markets disagreed: the winner (EC) market called Trump (right) vs the poll near-tie; the popular-vote market favored Harris (wrong). Result vindicated the EC market and refuted the popular-vote market. naive_gap = P(win) − vote_share (different units, not scale-reconciled)."
|
| 32 |
+
}
|
data/usa-divergence-timeseries.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,219 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
| 1 |
+
date,candidate,market_win_prob_pct,poll_vote_share_pct,naive_gap_pp
|
| 2 |
+
2024-07-21,Trump,64.00,46.52,17.48
|
| 3 |
+
2024-07-21,Harris,18.25,43.19,-24.94
|
| 4 |
+
2024-07-22,Trump,63.00,46.38,16.62
|
| 5 |
+
2024-07-22,Harris,29.15,43.08,-13.93
|
| 6 |
+
2024-07-23,Trump,62.50,46.69,15.81
|
| 7 |
+
2024-07-23,Harris,32.35,43.28,-10.93
|
| 8 |
+
2024-07-24,Trump,60.50,45.93,14.57
|
| 9 |
+
2024-07-24,Harris,37.05,43.28,-6.23
|
| 10 |
+
2024-07-25,Trump,62.50,45.77,16.73
|
| 11 |
+
2024-07-25,Harris,32.15,43.84,-11.69
|
| 12 |
+
2024-07-26,Trump,61.50,45.78,15.72
|
| 13 |
+
2024-07-26,Harris,34.70,44.15,-9.45
|
| 14 |
+
2024-07-27,Trump,58.50,45.70,12.80
|
| 15 |
+
2024-07-27,Harris,39.75,44.34,-4.59
|
| 16 |
+
2024-07-28,Trump,57.50,45.06,12.44
|
| 17 |
+
2024-07-28,Harris,39.40,45.01,-5.61
|
| 18 |
+
2024-07-29,Trump,58.50,45.21,13.29
|
| 19 |
+
2024-07-29,Harris,39.30,45.23,-5.93
|
| 20 |
+
2024-07-30,Trump,59.50,45.46,14.04
|
| 21 |
+
2024-07-30,Harris,38.00,45.62,-7.62
|
| 22 |
+
2024-07-31,Trump,58.50,45.70,12.80
|
| 23 |
+
2024-07-31,Harris,38.55,46.14,-7.59
|
| 24 |
+
2024-08-01,Trump,55.50,45.49,10.01
|
| 25 |
+
2024-08-01,Harris,41.70,46.69,-4.99
|
| 26 |
+
2024-08-02,Trump,53.50,45.48,8.02
|
| 27 |
+
2024-08-02,Harris,44.15,46.66,-2.51
|
| 28 |
+
2024-08-03,Trump,52.50,45.61,6.89
|
| 29 |
+
2024-08-03,Harris,43.95,46.78,-2.83
|
| 30 |
+
2024-08-04,Trump,54.50,45.32,9.18
|
| 31 |
+
2024-08-04,Harris,43.15,47.24,-4.09
|
| 32 |
+
2024-08-05,Trump,51.50,45.06,6.44
|
| 33 |
+
2024-08-05,Harris,44.60,47.65,-3.05
|
| 34 |
+
2024-08-06,Trump,53.50,45.19,8.31
|
| 35 |
+
2024-08-06,Harris,43.70,47.79,-4.09
|
| 36 |
+
2024-08-07,Trump,51.50,45.19,6.31
|
| 37 |
+
2024-08-07,Harris,45.85,47.79,-1.94
|
| 38 |
+
2024-08-08,Trump,48.50,45.32,3.18
|
| 39 |
+
2024-08-08,Harris,49.15,47.53,1.62
|
| 40 |
+
2024-08-09,Trump,49.15,45.21,3.94
|
| 41 |
+
2024-08-09,Harris,48.75,47.66,1.09
|
| 42 |
+
2024-08-10,Trump,47.60,45.06,2.54
|
| 43 |
+
2024-08-10,Harris,49.15,47.83,1.32
|
| 44 |
+
2024-08-11,Trump,45.30,44.47,0.83
|
| 45 |
+
2024-08-11,Harris,51.50,47.16,4.34
|
| 46 |
+
2024-08-12,Trump,45.55,44.64,0.91
|
| 47 |
+
2024-08-12,Harris,51.55,47.12,4.43
|
| 48 |
+
2024-08-13,Trump,45.85,44.55,1.30
|
| 49 |
+
2024-08-13,Harris,51.20,47.34,3.86
|
| 50 |
+
2024-08-14,Trump,45.55,44.85,0.70
|
| 51 |
+
2024-08-14,Harris,52.45,47.60,4.85
|
| 52 |
+
2024-08-15,Trump,44.70,44.70,-0.00
|
| 53 |
+
2024-08-15,Harris,53.35,47.79,5.56
|
| 54 |
+
2024-08-16,Trump,44.30,44.84,-0.54
|
| 55 |
+
2024-08-16,Harris,53.90,47.90,6.00
|
| 56 |
+
2024-08-17,Trump,45.45,44.84,0.61
|
| 57 |
+
2024-08-17,Harris,52.25,47.90,4.35
|
| 58 |
+
2024-08-18,Trump,48.65,44.84,3.80
|
| 59 |
+
2024-08-18,Harris,49.75,48.15,1.60
|
| 60 |
+
2024-08-19,Trump,48.35,44.71,3.64
|
| 61 |
+
2024-08-19,Harris,49.35,48.21,1.14
|
| 62 |
+
2024-08-20,Trump,48.60,44.67,3.93
|
| 63 |
+
2024-08-20,Harris,49.60,48.18,1.42
|
| 64 |
+
2024-08-21,Trump,50.25,44.03,6.22
|
| 65 |
+
2024-08-21,Harris,48.10,47.88,0.23
|
| 66 |
+
2024-08-22,Trump,52.15,44.19,7.96
|
| 67 |
+
2024-08-22,Harris,46.80,47.94,-1.14
|
| 68 |
+
2024-08-23,Trump,51.75,43.89,7.86
|
| 69 |
+
2024-08-23,Harris,47.15,47.83,-0.68
|
| 70 |
+
2024-08-24,Trump,50.15,43.98,6.17
|
| 71 |
+
2024-08-24,Harris,48.40,48.05,0.35
|
| 72 |
+
2024-08-25,Trump,50.20,44.69,5.51
|
| 73 |
+
2024-08-25,Harris,48.65,48.44,0.21
|
| 74 |
+
2024-08-26,Trump,49.55,44.37,5.18
|
| 75 |
+
2024-08-26,Harris,49.60,47.97,1.63
|
| 76 |
+
2024-08-27,Trump,49.45,44.69,4.76
|
| 77 |
+
2024-08-27,Harris,49.45,48.26,1.19
|
| 78 |
+
2024-08-28,Trump,50.35,44.19,6.16
|
| 79 |
+
2024-08-28,Harris,48.35,48.03,0.32
|
| 80 |
+
2024-08-29,Trump,50.30,44.14,6.16
|
| 81 |
+
2024-08-29,Harris,48.40,47.99,0.41
|
| 82 |
+
2024-08-30,Trump,49.80,44.22,5.58
|
| 83 |
+
2024-08-30,Harris,48.30,47.95,0.35
|
| 84 |
+
2024-08-31,Trump,49.95,44.21,5.74
|
| 85 |
+
2024-08-31,Harris,48.55,47.84,0.71
|
| 86 |
+
2024-09-01,Trump,50.25,44.08,6.17
|
| 87 |
+
2024-09-01,Harris,48.25,47.67,0.58
|
| 88 |
+
2024-09-02,Trump,50.85,44.55,6.30
|
| 89 |
+
2024-09-02,Harris,47.75,48.12,-0.37
|
| 90 |
+
2024-09-03,Trump,51.75,44.58,7.17
|
| 91 |
+
2024-09-03,Harris,47.05,47.89,-0.84
|
| 92 |
+
2024-09-04,Trump,51.15,45.26,5.89
|
| 93 |
+
2024-09-04,Harris,47.65,47.86,-0.21
|
| 94 |
+
2024-09-05,Trump,52.95,45.72,7.23
|
| 95 |
+
2024-09-05,Harris,46.00,48.11,-2.11
|
| 96 |
+
2024-09-06,Trump,52.80,45.96,6.84
|
| 97 |
+
2024-09-06,Harris,45.90,47.90,-2.00
|
| 98 |
+
2024-09-07,Trump,50.55,45.99,4.56
|
| 99 |
+
2024-09-07,Harris,47.75,47.87,-0.12
|
| 100 |
+
2024-09-08,Trump,50.00,45.73,4.27
|
| 101 |
+
2024-09-08,Harris,47.55,47.90,-0.35
|
| 102 |
+
2024-09-09,Trump,51.30,45.67,5.63
|
| 103 |
+
2024-09-09,Harris,46.40,47.82,-1.42
|
| 104 |
+
2024-09-10,Trump,52.25,45.42,6.83
|
| 105 |
+
2024-09-10,Harris,46.05,47.75,-1.70
|
| 106 |
+
2024-09-11,Trump,51.95,46.14,5.81
|
| 107 |
+
2024-09-11,Harris,46.40,48.38,-1.98
|
| 108 |
+
2024-09-12,Trump,49.60,45.54,4.06
|
| 109 |
+
2024-09-12,Harris,49.45,47.70,1.75
|
| 110 |
+
2024-09-13,Trump,49.10,45.18,3.92
|
| 111 |
+
2024-09-13,Harris,49.85,48.77,1.08
|
| 112 |
+
2024-09-14,Trump,49.10,45.16,3.94
|
| 113 |
+
2024-09-14,Harris,50.05,48.79,1.26
|
| 114 |
+
2024-09-15,Trump,48.85,45.02,3.83
|
| 115 |
+
2024-09-15,Harris,50.35,48.89,1.46
|
| 116 |
+
2024-09-16,Trump,49.40,45.36,4.04
|
| 117 |
+
2024-09-16,Harris,49.60,48.72,0.88
|
| 118 |
+
2024-09-17,Trump,49.45,45.25,4.20
|
| 119 |
+
2024-09-17,Harris,49.25,48.85,0.40
|
| 120 |
+
2024-09-18,Trump,48.05,45.28,2.77
|
| 121 |
+
2024-09-18,Harris,50.05,48.87,1.18
|
| 122 |
+
2024-09-19,Trump,46.75,45.40,1.35
|
| 123 |
+
2024-09-19,Harris,51.75,49.24,2.51
|
| 124 |
+
2024-09-20,Trump,47.15,45.59,1.56
|
| 125 |
+
2024-09-20,Harris,51.25,49.13,2.12
|
| 126 |
+
2024-09-21,Trump,47.90,45.59,2.31
|
| 127 |
+
2024-09-21,Harris,51.00,49.13,1.87
|
| 128 |
+
2024-09-22,Trump,47.55,45.74,1.81
|
| 129 |
+
2024-09-22,Harris,51.20,48.86,2.34
|
| 130 |
+
2024-09-23,Trump,46.95,45.41,1.54
|
| 131 |
+
2024-09-23,Harris,52.00,49.30,2.70
|
| 132 |
+
2024-09-24,Trump,48.25,45.67,2.58
|
| 133 |
+
2024-09-24,Harris,50.50,49.70,0.80
|
| 134 |
+
2024-09-25,Trump,48.10,45.43,2.67
|
| 135 |
+
2024-09-25,Harris,50.30,49.62,0.68
|
| 136 |
+
2024-09-26,Trump,48.85,45.23,3.62
|
| 137 |
+
2024-09-26,Harris,50.15,49.56,0.59
|
| 138 |
+
2024-09-27,Trump,48.95,45.09,3.86
|
| 139 |
+
2024-09-27,Harris,50.20,49.47,0.73
|
| 140 |
+
2024-09-28,Trump,48.55,45.09,3.46
|
| 141 |
+
2024-09-28,Harris,50.65,49.47,1.18
|
| 142 |
+
2024-09-29,Trump,48.25,45.47,2.78
|
| 143 |
+
2024-09-29,Harris,50.60,50.18,0.42
|
| 144 |
+
2024-09-30,Trump,49.05,45.39,3.66
|
| 145 |
+
2024-09-30,Harris,50.25,50.08,0.17
|
| 146 |
+
2024-10-01,Trump,48.85,45.63,3.22
|
| 147 |
+
2024-10-01,Harris,49.65,49.64,0.01
|
| 148 |
+
2024-10-02,Trump,48.25,46.09,2.16
|
| 149 |
+
2024-10-02,Harris,49.85,49.80,0.05
|
| 150 |
+
2024-10-03,Trump,49.25,46.29,2.96
|
| 151 |
+
2024-10-03,Harris,49.45,49.56,-0.11
|
| 152 |
+
2024-10-04,Trump,49.65,46.00,3.65
|
| 153 |
+
2024-10-04,Harris,49.55,49.01,0.54
|
| 154 |
+
2024-10-05,Trump,49.75,46.00,3.75
|
| 155 |
+
2024-10-05,Harris,49.25,49.04,0.21
|
| 156 |
+
2024-10-06,Trump,50.15,45.94,4.21
|
| 157 |
+
2024-10-06,Harris,48.95,48.90,0.05
|
| 158 |
+
2024-10-07,Trump,50.75,45.73,5.02
|
| 159 |
+
2024-10-07,Harris,48.35,48.67,-0.32
|
| 160 |
+
2024-10-08,Trump,53.95,46.13,7.82
|
| 161 |
+
2024-10-08,Harris,45.75,48.65,-2.90
|
| 162 |
+
2024-10-09,Trump,52.90,46.08,6.82
|
| 163 |
+
2024-10-09,Harris,46.55,48.55,-2.00
|
| 164 |
+
2024-10-10,Trump,53.35,46.05,7.30
|
| 165 |
+
2024-10-10,Harris,46.05,48.53,-2.48
|
| 166 |
+
2024-10-11,Trump,55.45,46.58,8.87
|
| 167 |
+
2024-10-11,Harris,43.95,48.92,-4.97
|
| 168 |
+
2024-10-12,Trump,54.05,46.60,7.45
|
| 169 |
+
2024-10-12,Harris,45.50,48.89,-3.39
|
| 170 |
+
2024-10-13,Trump,54.95,46.45,8.50
|
| 171 |
+
2024-10-13,Harris,44.70,48.74,-4.04
|
| 172 |
+
2024-10-14,Trump,53.95,46.92,7.03
|
| 173 |
+
2024-10-14,Harris,45.45,48.94,-3.49
|
| 174 |
+
2024-10-15,Trump,55.05,46.49,8.56
|
| 175 |
+
2024-10-15,Harris,44.35,48.95,-4.60
|
| 176 |
+
2024-10-16,Trump,57.65,46.60,11.05
|
| 177 |
+
2024-10-16,Harris,42.20,49.04,-6.84
|
| 178 |
+
2024-10-17,Trump,58.55,47.03,11.52
|
| 179 |
+
2024-10-17,Harris,41.05,49.13,-8.08
|
| 180 |
+
2024-10-18,Trump,61.85,46.78,15.07
|
| 181 |
+
2024-10-18,Harris,38.15,48.83,-10.68
|
| 182 |
+
2024-10-19,Trump,59.95,46.86,13.09
|
| 183 |
+
2024-10-19,Harris,40.05,48.71,-8.66
|
| 184 |
+
2024-10-20,Trump,60.05,47.26,12.79
|
| 185 |
+
2024-10-20,Harris,39.85,48.89,-9.04
|
| 186 |
+
2024-10-21,Trump,60.65,46.24,14.41
|
| 187 |
+
2024-10-21,Harris,39.25,48.04,-8.79
|
| 188 |
+
2024-10-22,Trump,64.90,46.69,18.21
|
| 189 |
+
2024-10-22,Harris,35.15,48.03,-12.88
|
| 190 |
+
2024-10-23,Trump,64.75,46.48,18.27
|
| 191 |
+
2024-10-23,Harris,35.15,48.00,-12.85
|
| 192 |
+
2024-10-24,Trump,61.55,46.36,15.19
|
| 193 |
+
2024-10-24,Harris,38.45,47.99,-9.54
|
| 194 |
+
2024-10-25,Trump,64.10,46.42,17.68
|
| 195 |
+
2024-10-25,Harris,36.05,48.14,-12.09
|
| 196 |
+
2024-10-26,Trump,63.85,46.36,17.49
|
| 197 |
+
2024-10-26,Harris,36.05,48.19,-12.14
|
| 198 |
+
2024-10-27,Trump,64.55,46.26,18.29
|
| 199 |
+
2024-10-27,Harris,35.30,48.03,-12.73
|
| 200 |
+
2024-10-28,Trump,64.95,46.86,18.09
|
| 201 |
+
2024-10-28,Harris,34.85,48.54,-13.69
|
| 202 |
+
2024-10-29,Trump,65.85,47.03,18.82
|
| 203 |
+
2024-10-29,Harris,34.15,48.54,-14.39
|
| 204 |
+
2024-10-30,Trump,66.55,47.35,19.20
|
| 205 |
+
2024-10-30,Harris,33.45,48.51,-15.06
|
| 206 |
+
2024-10-31,Trump,64.75,47.48,17.27
|
| 207 |
+
2024-10-31,Harris,35.20,48.35,-13.15
|
| 208 |
+
2024-11-01,Trump,63.25,47.39,15.86
|
| 209 |
+
2024-11-01,Harris,36.80,48.27,-11.47
|
| 210 |
+
2024-11-02,Trump,58.25,47.68,10.57
|
| 211 |
+
2024-11-02,Harris,41.85,48.35,-6.50
|
| 212 |
+
2024-11-03,Trump,55.85,47.75,8.10
|
| 213 |
+
2024-11-03,Harris,44.15,48.44,-4.29
|
| 214 |
+
2024-11-04,Trump,56.35,47.83,8.52
|
| 215 |
+
2024-11-04,Harris,43.50,48.38,-4.88
|
| 216 |
+
2024-11-05,Trump,58.55,47.75,10.80
|
| 217 |
+
2024-11-05,Harris,41.45,48.37,-6.92
|
| 218 |
+
2024-11-06,Trump,58.00,47.80,10.20
|
| 219 |
+
2024-11-06,Harris,42.15,48.43,-6.28
|
data/usa-poll-aggregate-timeseries.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,1323 @@
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|
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|
|
| 1 |
+
date,candidate,poll_vote_share_pct_7dma
|
| 2 |
+
2021-04-07,Trump,42.20
|
| 3 |
+
2021-04-16,Trump,28.00
|
| 4 |
+
2021-04-23,Harris,43.00
|
| 5 |
+
2021-05-13,Trump,36.00
|
| 6 |
+
2021-05-18,Trump,42.50
|
| 7 |
+
2021-05-18,Harris,45.00
|
| 8 |
+
2021-05-26,Trump,36.00
|
| 9 |
+
2021-06-05,Trump,40.00
|
| 10 |
+
2021-06-20,Trump,49.00
|
| 11 |
+
2021-06-20,Harris,45.00
|
| 12 |
+
2021-06-22,Trump,44.50
|
| 13 |
+
2021-06-22,Harris,45.67
|
| 14 |
+
2021-06-24,Trump,41.33
|
| 15 |
+
2021-06-24,Harris,45.67
|
| 16 |
+
2021-07-08,Trump,43.30
|
| 17 |
+
2021-08-02,Trump,37.00
|
| 18 |
+
2021-08-03,Trump,43.00
|
| 19 |
+
2021-08-03,Harris,46.00
|
| 20 |
+
2021-08-17,Trump,43.00
|
| 21 |
+
2021-09-01,Trump,46.60
|
| 22 |
+
2021-09-05,Trump,41.53
|
| 23 |
+
2021-09-14,Trump,49.50
|
| 24 |
+
2021-09-14,Harris,47.00
|
| 25 |
+
2021-09-20,Trump,43.25
|
| 26 |
+
2021-09-20,Harris,47.00
|
| 27 |
+
2021-09-22,Trump,44.25
|
| 28 |
+
2021-09-22,Harris,39.00
|
| 29 |
+
2021-09-23,Trump,43.20
|
| 30 |
+
2021-09-23,Harris,39.00
|
| 31 |
+
2021-10-05,Trump,38.50
|
| 32 |
+
2021-10-17,Trump,38.33
|
| 33 |
+
2021-10-18,Trump,41.00
|
| 34 |
+
2021-10-18,Harris,46.00
|
| 35 |
+
2021-10-19,Trump,41.00
|
| 36 |
+
2021-10-19,Harris,46.00
|
| 37 |
+
2021-10-21,Trump,40.86
|
| 38 |
+
2021-10-21,Harris,46.00
|
| 39 |
+
2021-10-28,Trump,46.00
|
| 40 |
+
2021-10-28,Harris,40.00
|
| 41 |
+
2021-10-31,Trump,42.00
|
| 42 |
+
2021-10-31,Harris,40.00
|
| 43 |
+
2021-11-04,Trump,41.53
|
| 44 |
+
2021-11-05,Trump,42.05
|
| 45 |
+
2021-11-08,Trump,42.40
|
| 46 |
+
2021-11-10,Trump,40.30
|
| 47 |
+
2021-11-15,Trump,39.00
|
| 48 |
+
2021-11-15,Harris,33.00
|
| 49 |
+
2021-11-16,Trump,43.20
|
| 50 |
+
2021-11-16,Harris,37.50
|
| 51 |
+
2021-11-18,Trump,45.40
|
| 52 |
+
2021-11-18,Harris,37.50
|
| 53 |
+
2021-11-22,Trump,47.25
|
| 54 |
+
2021-11-22,Harris,42.00
|
| 55 |
+
2021-11-23,Trump,45.00
|
| 56 |
+
2021-12-02,Trump,48.67
|
| 57 |
+
2021-12-02,Harris,41.50
|
| 58 |
+
2021-12-05,Trump,43.14
|
| 59 |
+
2021-12-05,Harris,39.00
|
| 60 |
+
2021-12-13,Trump,38.00
|
| 61 |
+
2021-12-18,Trump,39.00
|
| 62 |
+
2021-12-19,Trump,40.25
|
| 63 |
+
2022-01-05,Trump,46.00
|
| 64 |
+
2022-01-06,Trump,44.85
|
| 65 |
+
2022-01-09,Trump,41.45
|
| 66 |
+
2022-01-09,Harris,39.00
|
| 67 |
+
2022-01-18,Trump,50.33
|
| 68 |
+
2022-01-18,Harris,40.00
|
| 69 |
+
2022-01-20,Trump,49.20
|
| 70 |
+
2022-01-20,Harris,39.33
|
| 71 |
+
2022-01-21,Trump,46.50
|
| 72 |
+
2022-01-21,Harris,39.33
|
| 73 |
+
2022-01-23,Trump,45.56
|
| 74 |
+
2022-01-23,Harris,39.33
|
| 75 |
+
2022-01-24,Trump,44.82
|
| 76 |
+
2022-01-24,Harris,39.33
|
| 77 |
+
2022-02-06,Trump,40.00
|
| 78 |
+
2022-02-06,Harris,38.00
|
| 79 |
+
2022-02-09,Trump,41.33
|
| 80 |
+
2022-02-09,Harris,40.67
|
| 81 |
+
2022-02-20,Trump,48.00
|
| 82 |
+
2022-02-22,Trump,49.00
|
| 83 |
+
2022-02-22,Harris,43.00
|
| 84 |
+
2022-02-23,Trump,42.44
|
| 85 |
+
2022-02-23,Harris,39.67
|
| 86 |
+
2022-02-24,Trump,43.47
|
| 87 |
+
2022-02-24,Harris,39.80
|
| 88 |
+
2022-02-27,Trump,42.67
|
| 89 |
+
2022-02-27,Harris,39.80
|
| 90 |
+
2022-03-07,Trump,45.00
|
| 91 |
+
2022-03-08,Trump,41.20
|
| 92 |
+
2022-03-08,Harris,34.50
|
| 93 |
+
2022-03-09,Trump,42.88
|
| 94 |
+
2022-03-09,Harris,37.33
|
| 95 |
+
2022-03-14,Trump,41.56
|
| 96 |
+
2022-03-14,Harris,37.33
|
| 97 |
+
2022-03-20,Trump,39.56
|
| 98 |
+
2022-03-20,Harris,37.00
|
| 99 |
+
2022-03-21,Trump,42.19
|
| 100 |
+
2022-03-21,Harris,37.00
|
| 101 |
+
2022-03-22,Trump,44.14
|
| 102 |
+
2022-03-22,Harris,38.67
|
| 103 |
+
2022-03-24,Trump,44.18
|
| 104 |
+
2022-03-24,Harris,38.80
|
| 105 |
+
2022-04-03,Trump,40.50
|
| 106 |
+
2022-04-03,Harris,33.50
|
| 107 |
+
2022-04-04,Trump,40.00
|
| 108 |
+
2022-04-04,Harris,33.50
|
| 109 |
+
2022-04-18,Trump,44.00
|
| 110 |
+
2022-04-18,Harris,39.00
|
| 111 |
+
2022-04-20,Trump,44.83
|
| 112 |
+
2022-04-20,Harris,41.67
|
| 113 |
+
2022-04-21,Trump,45.13
|
| 114 |
+
2022-04-21,Harris,41.60
|
| 115 |
+
2022-04-22,Trump,44.00
|
| 116 |
+
2022-04-22,Harris,41.60
|
| 117 |
+
2022-04-23,Trump,44.27
|
| 118 |
+
2022-04-23,Harris,41.60
|
| 119 |
+
2022-04-25,Trump,44.18
|
| 120 |
+
2022-04-25,Harris,42.25
|
| 121 |
+
2022-04-26,Trump,45.52
|
| 122 |
+
2022-04-26,Harris,42.00
|
| 123 |
+
2022-04-27,Trump,45.67
|
| 124 |
+
2022-04-27,Harris,43.25
|
| 125 |
+
2022-05-01,Trump,44.65
|
| 126 |
+
2022-05-01,Harris,41.25
|
| 127 |
+
2022-05-02,Trump,45.28
|
| 128 |
+
2022-05-02,Harris,41.25
|
| 129 |
+
2022-05-17,Trump,39.75
|
| 130 |
+
2022-05-17,Harris,35.00
|
| 131 |
+
2022-05-19,Trump,41.83
|
| 132 |
+
2022-05-19,Harris,37.75
|
| 133 |
+
2022-05-22,Trump,41.50
|
| 134 |
+
2022-05-22,Harris,37.75
|
| 135 |
+
2022-05-23,Trump,42.00
|
| 136 |
+
2022-05-23,Harris,37.75
|
| 137 |
+
2022-05-25,Trump,43.63
|
| 138 |
+
2022-05-25,Harris,40.50
|
| 139 |
+
2022-05-30,Trump,42.08
|
| 140 |
+
2022-05-30,Harris,38.00
|
| 141 |
+
2022-06-13,Trump,43.00
|
| 142 |
+
2022-06-15,Trump,39.67
|
| 143 |
+
2022-06-15,Harris,35.00
|
| 144 |
+
2022-06-20,Trump,39.75
|
| 145 |
+
2022-06-20,Harris,35.00
|
| 146 |
+
2022-06-22,Trump,44.17
|
| 147 |
+
2022-06-22,Harris,42.00
|
| 148 |
+
2022-06-27,Trump,43.75
|
| 149 |
+
2022-06-27,Harris,42.60
|
| 150 |
+
2022-06-29,Trump,42.13
|
| 151 |
+
2022-06-29,Harris,42.75
|
| 152 |
+
2022-06-30,Trump,42.54
|
| 153 |
+
2022-06-30,Harris,41.50
|
| 154 |
+
2022-07-07,Trump,41.00
|
| 155 |
+
2022-07-09,Trump,40.00
|
| 156 |
+
2022-07-09,Harris,36.00
|
| 157 |
+
2022-07-11,Trump,40.43
|
| 158 |
+
2022-07-11,Harris,36.00
|
| 159 |
+
2022-07-14,Trump,41.41
|
| 160 |
+
2022-07-14,Harris,36.00
|
| 161 |
+
2022-07-16,Trump,45.98
|
| 162 |
+
2022-07-18,Trump,45.98
|
| 163 |
+
2022-07-18,Harris,44.25
|
| 164 |
+
2022-07-20,Trump,45.81
|
| 165 |
+
2022-07-20,Harris,44.25
|
| 166 |
+
2022-07-25,Trump,43.83
|
| 167 |
+
2022-07-27,Trump,43.45
|
| 168 |
+
2022-07-28,Trump,41.61
|
| 169 |
+
2022-07-28,Harris,37.75
|
| 170 |
+
2022-08-01,Trump,41.64
|
| 171 |
+
2022-08-01,Harris,39.67
|
| 172 |
+
2022-08-08,Trump,38.50
|
| 173 |
+
2022-08-17,Trump,40.00
|
| 174 |
+
2022-08-17,Harris,35.50
|
| 175 |
+
2022-08-22,Trump,35.70
|
| 176 |
+
2022-08-22,Harris,35.50
|
| 177 |
+
2022-08-24,Trump,36.65
|
| 178 |
+
2022-08-24,Harris,43.00
|
| 179 |
+
2022-08-25,Trump,37.02
|
| 180 |
+
2022-08-25,Harris,43.00
|
| 181 |
+
2022-08-28,Trump,37.30
|
| 182 |
+
2022-08-28,Harris,40.00
|
| 183 |
+
2022-09-05,Trump,46.75
|
| 184 |
+
2022-09-06,Trump,44.83
|
| 185 |
+
2022-09-07,Trump,44.86
|
| 186 |
+
2022-09-08,Trump,45.11
|
| 187 |
+
2022-09-08,Harris,40.50
|
| 188 |
+
2022-09-14,Trump,41.20
|
| 189 |
+
2022-09-14,Harris,40.50
|
| 190 |
+
2022-09-15,Trump,38.43
|
| 191 |
+
2022-09-15,Harris,38.00
|
| 192 |
+
2022-09-19,Trump,40.50
|
| 193 |
+
2022-09-19,Harris,38.00
|
| 194 |
+
2022-09-21,Trump,42.89
|
| 195 |
+
2022-09-21,Harris,38.00
|
| 196 |
+
2022-09-22,Trump,46.74
|
| 197 |
+
2022-09-22,Harris,42.00
|
| 198 |
+
2022-09-27,Trump,46.13
|
| 199 |
+
2022-09-27,Harris,42.00
|
| 200 |
+
2022-10-03,Trump,39.17
|
| 201 |
+
2022-10-03,Harris,39.50
|
| 202 |
+
2022-10-05,Trump,37.80
|
| 203 |
+
2022-10-05,Harris,39.50
|
| 204 |
+
2022-10-11,Trump,40.67
|
| 205 |
+
2022-10-11,Harris,54.00
|
| 206 |
+
2022-10-12,Trump,41.11
|
| 207 |
+
2022-10-12,Harris,43.00
|
| 208 |
+
2022-10-13,Trump,42.33
|
| 209 |
+
2022-10-13,Harris,41.60
|
| 210 |
+
2022-10-17,Trump,43.25
|
| 211 |
+
2022-10-17,Harris,41.67
|
| 212 |
+
2022-10-19,Trump,45.26
|
| 213 |
+
2022-10-19,Harris,40.33
|
| 214 |
+
2022-10-24,Trump,40.90
|
| 215 |
+
2022-10-26,Trump,44.92
|
| 216 |
+
2022-10-30,Trump,44.54
|
| 217 |
+
2022-10-31,Trump,43.17
|
| 218 |
+
2022-11-02,Trump,43.11
|
| 219 |
+
2022-11-02,Harris,37.50
|
| 220 |
+
2022-11-07,Trump,44.29
|
| 221 |
+
2022-11-07,Harris,37.50
|
| 222 |
+
2022-11-08,Trump,44.75
|
| 223 |
+
2022-11-08,Harris,37.50
|
| 224 |
+
2022-11-09,Trump,46.00
|
| 225 |
+
2022-11-13,Trump,42.75
|
| 226 |
+
2022-11-17,Trump,40.71
|
| 227 |
+
2022-11-17,Harris,40.50
|
| 228 |
+
2022-11-19,Trump,41.59
|
| 229 |
+
2022-11-19,Harris,40.50
|
| 230 |
+
2022-11-20,Trump,42.99
|
| 231 |
+
2022-11-20,Harris,40.50
|
| 232 |
+
2022-11-22,Trump,41.49
|
| 233 |
+
2022-11-22,Harris,40.50
|
| 234 |
+
2022-12-02,Trump,40.00
|
| 235 |
+
2022-12-03,Trump,40.00
|
| 236 |
+
2022-12-04,Trump,40.00
|
| 237 |
+
2022-12-05,Trump,39.60
|
| 238 |
+
2022-12-05,Harris,38.50
|
| 239 |
+
2022-12-06,Trump,39.73
|
| 240 |
+
2022-12-06,Harris,38.50
|
| 241 |
+
2022-12-07,Trump,40.00
|
| 242 |
+
2022-12-07,Harris,38.50
|
| 243 |
+
2022-12-08,Trump,40.00
|
| 244 |
+
2022-12-08,Harris,38.50
|
| 245 |
+
2022-12-09,Trump,40.00
|
| 246 |
+
2022-12-09,Harris,38.50
|
| 247 |
+
2022-12-10,Trump,40.07
|
| 248 |
+
2022-12-10,Harris,38.50
|
| 249 |
+
2022-12-11,Trump,40.10
|
| 250 |
+
2022-12-11,Harris,38.50
|
| 251 |
+
2022-12-12,Trump,40.72
|
| 252 |
+
2022-12-13,Trump,40.61
|
| 253 |
+
2022-12-14,Trump,42.21
|
| 254 |
+
2022-12-14,Harris,42.00
|
| 255 |
+
2022-12-15,Trump,42.75
|
| 256 |
+
2022-12-15,Harris,40.67
|
| 257 |
+
2022-12-16,Trump,42.82
|
| 258 |
+
2022-12-16,Harris,40.67
|
| 259 |
+
2022-12-17,Trump,42.75
|
| 260 |
+
2022-12-17,Harris,40.67
|
| 261 |
+
2022-12-18,Trump,43.00
|
| 262 |
+
2022-12-18,Harris,40.67
|
| 263 |
+
2022-12-19,Trump,42.79
|
| 264 |
+
2022-12-19,Harris,40.67
|
| 265 |
+
2022-12-20,Trump,42.79
|
| 266 |
+
2022-12-20,Harris,40.67
|
| 267 |
+
2022-12-21,Trump,41.50
|
| 268 |
+
2022-12-21,Harris,40.00
|
| 269 |
+
2022-12-22,Trump,40.38
|
| 270 |
+
2022-12-23,Trump,40.25
|
| 271 |
+
2022-12-24,Trump,40.38
|
| 272 |
+
2022-12-25,Trump,40.56
|
| 273 |
+
2022-12-26,Trump,40.63
|
| 274 |
+
2022-12-27,Trump,40.63
|
| 275 |
+
2022-12-28,Trump,40.63
|
| 276 |
+
2022-12-29,Trump,41.11
|
| 277 |
+
2022-12-30,Trump,41.11
|
| 278 |
+
2022-12-31,Trump,41.00
|
| 279 |
+
2023-01-01,Trump,40.75
|
| 280 |
+
2023-01-02,Trump,40.63
|
| 281 |
+
2023-01-03,Trump,40.63
|
| 282 |
+
2023-01-04,Trump,40.63
|
| 283 |
+
2023-01-05,Trump,40.13
|
| 284 |
+
2023-01-06,Trump,40.25
|
| 285 |
+
2023-01-07,Trump,40.25
|
| 286 |
+
2023-01-08,Trump,42.18
|
| 287 |
+
2023-01-09,Trump,42.18
|
| 288 |
+
2023-01-10,Trump,42.18
|
| 289 |
+
2023-01-11,Trump,42.18
|
| 290 |
+
2023-01-12,Trump,42.30
|
| 291 |
+
2023-01-16,Trump,39.25
|
| 292 |
+
2023-01-16,Harris,37.50
|
| 293 |
+
2023-01-17,Trump,39.11
|
| 294 |
+
2023-01-17,Harris,37.50
|
| 295 |
+
2023-01-18,Trump,39.33
|
| 296 |
+
2023-01-18,Harris,37.50
|
| 297 |
+
2023-01-19,Trump,40.73
|
| 298 |
+
2023-01-19,Harris,38.75
|
| 299 |
+
2023-01-20,Trump,40.73
|
| 300 |
+
2023-01-20,Harris,38.75
|
| 301 |
+
2023-01-21,Trump,40.87
|
| 302 |
+
2023-01-21,Harris,38.75
|
| 303 |
+
2023-01-22,Trump,40.88
|
| 304 |
+
2023-01-22,Harris,38.75
|
| 305 |
+
2023-01-23,Trump,42.55
|
| 306 |
+
2023-01-23,Harris,40.00
|
| 307 |
+
2023-01-24,Trump,43.64
|
| 308 |
+
2023-01-24,Harris,40.00
|
| 309 |
+
2023-01-25,Trump,43.49
|
| 310 |
+
2023-01-25,Harris,40.00
|
| 311 |
+
2023-01-26,Trump,43.05
|
| 312 |
+
2023-01-26,Harris,40.00
|
| 313 |
+
2023-01-27,Trump,43.61
|
| 314 |
+
2023-01-27,Harris,40.00
|
| 315 |
+
2023-01-28,Trump,43.58
|
| 316 |
+
2023-01-28,Harris,40.00
|
| 317 |
+
2023-01-29,Trump,42.50
|
| 318 |
+
2023-01-29,Harris,37.67
|
| 319 |
+
2023-01-30,Trump,41.50
|
| 320 |
+
2023-01-30,Harris,37.67
|
| 321 |
+
2023-01-31,Trump,40.25
|
| 322 |
+
2023-01-31,Harris,36.50
|
| 323 |
+
2023-02-01,Trump,40.75
|
| 324 |
+
2023-02-01,Harris,36.50
|
| 325 |
+
2023-02-02,Trump,40.83
|
| 326 |
+
2023-02-02,Harris,36.50
|
| 327 |
+
2023-02-03,Trump,40.83
|
| 328 |
+
2023-02-03,Harris,36.50
|
| 329 |
+
2023-02-04,Trump,40.92
|
| 330 |
+
2023-02-04,Harris,36.50
|
| 331 |
+
2023-02-05,Trump,41.63
|
| 332 |
+
2023-02-06,Trump,42.00
|
| 333 |
+
2023-02-07,Trump,42.00
|
| 334 |
+
2023-02-08,Trump,41.40
|
| 335 |
+
2023-02-09,Trump,41.30
|
| 336 |
+
2023-02-10,Trump,41.20
|
| 337 |
+
2023-02-11,Trump,42.36
|
| 338 |
+
2023-02-11,Harris,47.00
|
| 339 |
+
2023-02-12,Trump,42.56
|
| 340 |
+
2023-02-12,Harris,44.50
|
| 341 |
+
2023-02-13,Trump,41.88
|
| 342 |
+
2023-02-13,Harris,44.50
|
| 343 |
+
2023-02-14,Trump,42.11
|
| 344 |
+
2023-02-14,Harris,44.50
|
| 345 |
+
2023-02-15,Trump,42.11
|
| 346 |
+
2023-02-15,Harris,44.50
|
| 347 |
+
2023-02-16,Trump,42.70
|
| 348 |
+
2023-02-16,Harris,42.00
|
| 349 |
+
2023-02-17,Trump,42.75
|
| 350 |
+
2023-02-17,Harris,42.00
|
| 351 |
+
2023-02-18,Trump,42.13
|
| 352 |
+
2023-02-18,Harris,40.33
|
| 353 |
+
2023-02-19,Trump,41.33
|
| 354 |
+
2023-02-19,Harris,39.25
|
| 355 |
+
2023-02-20,Trump,41.71
|
| 356 |
+
2023-02-20,Harris,39.25
|
| 357 |
+
2023-02-21,Trump,41.44
|
| 358 |
+
2023-02-21,Harris,39.25
|
| 359 |
+
2023-02-22,Trump,41.44
|
| 360 |
+
2023-02-22,Harris,39.25
|
| 361 |
+
2023-02-23,Trump,41.65
|
| 362 |
+
2023-02-23,Harris,40.33
|
| 363 |
+
2023-02-24,Trump,41.65
|
| 364 |
+
2023-02-24,Harris,40.33
|
| 365 |
+
2023-02-25,Trump,41.87
|
| 366 |
+
2023-02-25,Harris,40.33
|
| 367 |
+
2023-02-26,Trump,42.63
|
| 368 |
+
2023-02-26,Harris,43.00
|
| 369 |
+
2023-02-27,Trump,42.79
|
| 370 |
+
2023-02-27,Harris,41.67
|
| 371 |
+
2023-02-28,Trump,42.79
|
| 372 |
+
2023-02-28,Harris,41.67
|
| 373 |
+
2023-03-01,Trump,42.79
|
| 374 |
+
2023-03-01,Harris,41.67
|
| 375 |
+
2023-03-02,Trump,41.89
|
| 376 |
+
2023-03-02,Harris,41.00
|
| 377 |
+
2023-03-03,Trump,41.97
|
| 378 |
+
2023-03-03,Harris,41.00
|
| 379 |
+
2023-03-04,Trump,41.83
|
| 380 |
+
2023-03-04,Harris,41.00
|
| 381 |
+
2023-03-05,Trump,42.27
|
| 382 |
+
2023-03-05,Harris,41.00
|
| 383 |
+
2023-03-06,Trump,41.86
|
| 384 |
+
2023-03-07,Trump,42.44
|
| 385 |
+
2023-03-08,Trump,42.36
|
| 386 |
+
2023-03-09,Trump,42.38
|
| 387 |
+
2023-03-10,Trump,42.29
|
| 388 |
+
2023-03-11,Trump,42.21
|
| 389 |
+
2023-03-12,Trump,42.13
|
| 390 |
+
2023-03-13,Trump,42.35
|
| 391 |
+
2023-03-14,Trump,41.95
|
| 392 |
+
2023-03-15,Trump,41.94
|
| 393 |
+
2023-03-16,Trump,41.88
|
| 394 |
+
2023-03-17,Trump,41.88
|
| 395 |
+
2023-03-18,Trump,41.75
|
| 396 |
+
2023-03-19,Trump,41.63
|
| 397 |
+
2023-03-20,Trump,40.63
|
| 398 |
+
2023-03-20,Harris,38.33
|
| 399 |
+
2023-03-21,Trump,41.33
|
| 400 |
+
2023-03-21,Harris,38.33
|
| 401 |
+
2023-03-22,Trump,41.00
|
| 402 |
+
2023-03-22,Harris,38.33
|
| 403 |
+
2023-03-23,Trump,41.50
|
| 404 |
+
2023-03-23,Harris,38.17
|
| 405 |
+
2023-03-24,Trump,41.55
|
| 406 |
+
2023-03-24,Harris,38.17
|
| 407 |
+
2023-03-25,Trump,41.55
|
| 408 |
+
2023-03-25,Harris,38.17
|
| 409 |
+
2023-03-26,Trump,41.59
|
| 410 |
+
2023-03-26,Harris,38.17
|
| 411 |
+
2023-03-27,Trump,42.83
|
| 412 |
+
2023-03-27,Harris,38.00
|
| 413 |
+
2023-03-28,Trump,42.27
|
| 414 |
+
2023-03-28,Harris,38.00
|
| 415 |
+
2023-03-29,Trump,42.35
|
| 416 |
+
2023-03-29,Harris,38.00
|
| 417 |
+
2023-03-30,Trump,41.68
|
| 418 |
+
2023-03-31,Trump,41.71
|
| 419 |
+
2023-04-01,Trump,42.12
|
| 420 |
+
2023-04-02,Trump,42.04
|
| 421 |
+
2023-04-03,Trump,42.07
|
| 422 |
+
2023-04-04,Trump,41.75
|
| 423 |
+
2023-04-04,Harris,34.50
|
| 424 |
+
2023-04-05,Trump,42.17
|
| 425 |
+
2023-04-05,Harris,34.50
|
| 426 |
+
2023-04-06,Trump,41.84
|
| 427 |
+
2023-04-06,Harris,34.50
|
| 428 |
+
2023-04-07,Trump,41.78
|
| 429 |
+
2023-04-07,Harris,34.50
|
| 430 |
+
2023-04-08,Trump,41.53
|
| 431 |
+
2023-04-08,Harris,34.50
|
| 432 |
+
2023-04-09,Trump,41.59
|
| 433 |
+
2023-04-09,Harris,34.50
|
| 434 |
+
2023-04-10,Trump,41.20
|
| 435 |
+
2023-04-10,Harris,34.50
|
| 436 |
+
2023-04-11,Trump,41.36
|
| 437 |
+
2023-04-12,Trump,41.27
|
| 438 |
+
2023-04-13,Trump,41.85
|
| 439 |
+
2023-04-14,Trump,41.85
|
| 440 |
+
2023-04-15,Trump,41.76
|
| 441 |
+
2023-04-16,Trump,41.58
|
| 442 |
+
2023-04-17,Trump,41.56
|
| 443 |
+
2023-04-18,Trump,41.63
|
| 444 |
+
2023-04-19,Trump,42.26
|
| 445 |
+
2023-04-19,Harris,39.50
|
| 446 |
+
2023-04-20,Trump,42.42
|
| 447 |
+
2023-04-20,Harris,39.50
|
| 448 |
+
2023-04-21,Trump,42.48
|
| 449 |
+
2023-04-21,Harris,39.50
|
| 450 |
+
2023-04-22,Trump,42.54
|
| 451 |
+
2023-04-22,Harris,39.50
|
| 452 |
+
2023-04-23,Trump,42.77
|
| 453 |
+
2023-04-23,Harris,39.92
|
| 454 |
+
2023-04-24,Trump,41.53
|
| 455 |
+
2023-04-24,Harris,39.31
|
| 456 |
+
2023-04-25,Trump,41.46
|
| 457 |
+
2023-04-25,Harris,39.31
|
| 458 |
+
2023-04-26,Trump,40.96
|
| 459 |
+
2023-04-26,Harris,39.25
|
| 460 |
+
2023-04-27,Trump,41.05
|
| 461 |
+
2023-04-27,Harris,39.25
|
| 462 |
+
2023-04-28,Trump,41.05
|
| 463 |
+
2023-04-28,Harris,39.25
|
| 464 |
+
2023-04-29,Trump,41.05
|
| 465 |
+
2023-04-29,Harris,39.25
|
| 466 |
+
2023-04-30,Trump,40.54
|
| 467 |
+
2023-04-30,Harris,37.50
|
| 468 |
+
2023-05-01,Trump,42.47
|
| 469 |
+
2023-05-02,Trump,42.94
|
| 470 |
+
2023-05-03,Trump,43.74
|
| 471 |
+
2023-05-04,Trump,43.67
|
| 472 |
+
2023-05-05,Trump,43.67
|
| 473 |
+
2023-05-06,Trump,43.67
|
| 474 |
+
2023-05-07,Trump,43.67
|
| 475 |
+
2023-05-08,Trump,43.69
|
| 476 |
+
2023-05-09,Trump,43.58
|
| 477 |
+
2023-05-10,Trump,42.11
|
| 478 |
+
2023-05-11,Trump,42.00
|
| 479 |
+
2023-05-12,Trump,42.13
|
| 480 |
+
2023-05-13,Trump,41.94
|
| 481 |
+
2023-05-14,Trump,41.25
|
| 482 |
+
2023-05-15,Trump,39.84
|
| 483 |
+
2023-05-16,Trump,40.12
|
| 484 |
+
2023-05-17,Trump,40.06
|
| 485 |
+
2023-05-17,Harris,38.00
|
| 486 |
+
2023-05-18,Trump,41.64
|
| 487 |
+
2023-05-18,Harris,39.60
|
| 488 |
+
2023-05-19,Trump,41.57
|
| 489 |
+
2023-05-19,Harris,39.60
|
| 490 |
+
2023-05-20,Trump,41.63
|
| 491 |
+
2023-05-20,Harris,39.60
|
| 492 |
+
2023-05-21,Trump,41.99
|
| 493 |
+
2023-05-21,Harris,39.60
|
| 494 |
+
2023-05-22,Trump,43.56
|
| 495 |
+
2023-05-22,Harris,39.60
|
| 496 |
+
2023-05-23,Trump,43.69
|
| 497 |
+
2023-05-23,Harris,39.60
|
| 498 |
+
2023-05-24,Trump,44.29
|
| 499 |
+
2023-05-24,Harris,40.67
|
| 500 |
+
2023-05-25,Trump,42.38
|
| 501 |
+
2023-05-26,Trump,42.46
|
| 502 |
+
2023-05-27,Trump,42.54
|
| 503 |
+
2023-05-28,Trump,42.81
|
| 504 |
+
2023-05-29,Trump,42.80
|
| 505 |
+
2023-05-30,Trump,42.75
|
| 506 |
+
2023-05-31,Trump,41.96
|
| 507 |
+
2023-05-31,Harris,40.00
|
| 508 |
+
2023-06-01,Trump,41.96
|
| 509 |
+
2023-06-01,Harris,40.00
|
| 510 |
+
2023-06-02,Trump,41.84
|
| 511 |
+
2023-06-02,Harris,40.00
|
| 512 |
+
2023-06-03,Trump,41.73
|
| 513 |
+
2023-06-03,Harris,40.00
|
| 514 |
+
2023-06-04,Trump,41.31
|
| 515 |
+
2023-06-04,Harris,40.00
|
| 516 |
+
2023-06-05,Trump,41.56
|
| 517 |
+
2023-06-05,Harris,40.00
|
| 518 |
+
2023-06-06,Trump,41.59
|
| 519 |
+
2023-06-06,Harris,40.00
|
| 520 |
+
2023-06-07,Trump,42.64
|
| 521 |
+
2023-06-08,Trump,42.20
|
| 522 |
+
2023-06-09,Trump,41.64
|
| 523 |
+
2023-06-10,Trump,41.73
|
| 524 |
+
2023-06-11,Trump,41.42
|
| 525 |
+
2023-06-11,Harris,38.00
|
| 526 |
+
2023-06-12,Trump,41.45
|
| 527 |
+
2023-06-12,Harris,38.00
|
| 528 |
+
2023-06-13,Trump,41.25
|
| 529 |
+
2023-06-13,Harris,38.00
|
| 530 |
+
2023-06-14,Trump,41.60
|
| 531 |
+
2023-06-14,Harris,38.00
|
| 532 |
+
2023-06-15,Trump,42.13
|
| 533 |
+
2023-06-15,Harris,39.00
|
| 534 |
+
2023-06-16,Trump,42.48
|
| 535 |
+
2023-06-16,Harris,39.00
|
| 536 |
+
2023-06-17,Trump,42.48
|
| 537 |
+
2023-06-17,Harris,39.00
|
| 538 |
+
2023-06-18,Trump,42.97
|
| 539 |
+
2023-06-18,Harris,40.00
|
| 540 |
+
2023-06-19,Trump,43.22
|
| 541 |
+
2023-06-19,Harris,40.00
|
| 542 |
+
2023-06-20,Trump,43.52
|
| 543 |
+
2023-06-20,Harris,40.00
|
| 544 |
+
2023-06-21,Trump,43.39
|
| 545 |
+
2023-06-21,Harris,40.00
|
| 546 |
+
2023-06-22,Trump,43.05
|
| 547 |
+
2023-06-23,Trump,43.19
|
| 548 |
+
2023-06-24,Trump,43.19
|
| 549 |
+
2023-06-25,Trump,42.53
|
| 550 |
+
2023-06-25,Harris,38.50
|
| 551 |
+
2023-06-26,Trump,42.14
|
| 552 |
+
2023-06-26,Harris,38.50
|
| 553 |
+
2023-06-27,Trump,42.05
|
| 554 |
+
2023-06-27,Harris,38.50
|
| 555 |
+
2023-06-28,Trump,42.38
|
| 556 |
+
2023-06-28,Harris,38.50
|
| 557 |
+
2023-06-29,Trump,42.57
|
| 558 |
+
2023-06-29,Harris,38.50
|
| 559 |
+
2023-06-30,Trump,42.45
|
| 560 |
+
2023-06-30,Harris,38.50
|
| 561 |
+
2023-07-01,Trump,42.45
|
| 562 |
+
2023-07-01,Harris,38.50
|
| 563 |
+
2023-07-02,Trump,42.89
|
| 564 |
+
2023-07-03,Trump,42.94
|
| 565 |
+
2023-07-04,Trump,42.86
|
| 566 |
+
2023-07-05,Trump,42.38
|
| 567 |
+
2023-07-06,Trump,41.33
|
| 568 |
+
2023-07-06,Harris,37.50
|
| 569 |
+
2023-07-07,Trump,41.33
|
| 570 |
+
2023-07-07,Harris,37.50
|
| 571 |
+
2023-07-08,Trump,41.33
|
| 572 |
+
2023-07-08,Harris,37.50
|
| 573 |
+
2023-07-09,Trump,41.42
|
| 574 |
+
2023-07-09,Harris,37.50
|
| 575 |
+
2023-07-10,Trump,41.50
|
| 576 |
+
2023-07-10,Harris,37.50
|
| 577 |
+
2023-07-11,Trump,41.50
|
| 578 |
+
2023-07-11,Harris,37.50
|
| 579 |
+
2023-07-12,Trump,42.63
|
| 580 |
+
2023-07-12,Harris,37.50
|
| 581 |
+
2023-07-13,Trump,43.36
|
| 582 |
+
2023-07-14,Trump,43.00
|
| 583 |
+
2023-07-15,Trump,42.92
|
| 584 |
+
2023-07-16,Trump,42.85
|
| 585 |
+
2023-07-17,Trump,40.32
|
| 586 |
+
2023-07-18,Trump,40.29
|
| 587 |
+
2023-07-19,Trump,39.00
|
| 588 |
+
2023-07-20,Trump,39.76
|
| 589 |
+
2023-07-20,Harris,38.50
|
| 590 |
+
2023-07-21,Trump,39.60
|
| 591 |
+
2023-07-21,Harris,38.50
|
| 592 |
+
2023-07-22,Trump,39.60
|
| 593 |
+
2023-07-22,Harris,38.50
|
| 594 |
+
2023-07-23,Trump,39.60
|
| 595 |
+
2023-07-23,Harris,38.50
|
| 596 |
+
2023-07-24,Trump,43.36
|
| 597 |
+
2023-07-24,Harris,39.00
|
| 598 |
+
2023-07-25,Trump,42.75
|
| 599 |
+
2023-07-25,Harris,39.00
|
| 600 |
+
2023-07-26,Trump,42.67
|
| 601 |
+
2023-07-26,Harris,39.00
|
| 602 |
+
2023-07-27,Trump,42.40
|
| 603 |
+
2023-07-27,Harris,40.00
|
| 604 |
+
2023-07-28,Trump,42.40
|
| 605 |
+
2023-07-28,Harris,40.00
|
| 606 |
+
2023-07-29,Trump,42.45
|
| 607 |
+
2023-07-29,Harris,40.00
|
| 608 |
+
2023-07-30,Trump,42.45
|
| 609 |
+
2023-07-30,Harris,40.00
|
| 610 |
+
2023-07-31,Trump,41.84
|
| 611 |
+
2023-08-01,Trump,41.90
|
| 612 |
+
2023-08-02,Trump,41.83
|
| 613 |
+
2023-08-03,Trump,41.58
|
| 614 |
+
2023-08-04,Trump,41.58
|
| 615 |
+
2023-08-05,Trump,41.49
|
| 616 |
+
2023-08-06,Trump,41.16
|
| 617 |
+
2023-08-06,Harris,35.50
|
| 618 |
+
2023-08-07,Trump,41.14
|
| 619 |
+
2023-08-07,Harris,35.50
|
| 620 |
+
2023-08-08,Trump,41.29
|
| 621 |
+
2023-08-08,Harris,35.50
|
| 622 |
+
2023-08-09,Trump,41.16
|
| 623 |
+
2023-08-09,Harris,35.50
|
| 624 |
+
2023-08-10,Trump,41.00
|
| 625 |
+
2023-08-10,Harris,35.50
|
| 626 |
+
2023-08-11,Trump,41.00
|
| 627 |
+
2023-08-11,Harris,35.50
|
| 628 |
+
2023-08-12,Trump,41.08
|
| 629 |
+
2023-08-12,Harris,35.50
|
| 630 |
+
2023-08-13,Trump,41.44
|
| 631 |
+
2023-08-14,Trump,42.30
|
| 632 |
+
2023-08-15,Trump,41.92
|
| 633 |
+
2023-08-16,Trump,42.08
|
| 634 |
+
2023-08-17,Trump,42.09
|
| 635 |
+
2023-08-18,Trump,42.03
|
| 636 |
+
2023-08-19,Trump,41.97
|
| 637 |
+
2023-08-20,Trump,41.97
|
| 638 |
+
2023-08-21,Trump,41.88
|
| 639 |
+
2023-08-22,Trump,42.08
|
| 640 |
+
2023-08-23,Trump,42.50
|
| 641 |
+
2023-08-23,Harris,40.00
|
| 642 |
+
2023-08-24,Trump,42.56
|
| 643 |
+
2023-08-24,Harris,40.00
|
| 644 |
+
2023-08-25,Trump,42.42
|
| 645 |
+
2023-08-25,Harris,40.00
|
| 646 |
+
2023-08-26,Trump,42.79
|
| 647 |
+
2023-08-26,Harris,40.00
|
| 648 |
+
2023-08-27,Trump,42.85
|
| 649 |
+
2023-08-27,Harris,40.00
|
| 650 |
+
2023-08-28,Trump,42.90
|
| 651 |
+
2023-08-28,Harris,40.00
|
| 652 |
+
2023-08-29,Trump,43.02
|
| 653 |
+
2023-08-29,Harris,40.00
|
| 654 |
+
2023-08-30,Trump,42.59
|
| 655 |
+
2023-08-31,Trump,43.01
|
| 656 |
+
2023-09-01,Trump,43.22
|
| 657 |
+
2023-09-02,Trump,42.94
|
| 658 |
+
2023-09-03,Trump,42.87
|
| 659 |
+
2023-09-04,Trump,42.53
|
| 660 |
+
2023-09-05,Trump,42.44
|
| 661 |
+
2023-09-06,Trump,42.52
|
| 662 |
+
2023-09-07,Trump,41.77
|
| 663 |
+
2023-09-08,Trump,41.77
|
| 664 |
+
2023-09-09,Trump,41.77
|
| 665 |
+
2023-09-10,Trump,41.86
|
| 666 |
+
2023-09-11,Trump,43.18
|
| 667 |
+
2023-09-12,Trump,43.24
|
| 668 |
+
2023-09-13,Trump,43.07
|
| 669 |
+
2023-09-14,Trump,42.83
|
| 670 |
+
2023-09-14,Harris,41.00
|
| 671 |
+
2023-09-15,Trump,43.21
|
| 672 |
+
2023-09-15,Harris,41.00
|
| 673 |
+
2023-09-16,Trump,43.21
|
| 674 |
+
2023-09-16,Harris,41.00
|
| 675 |
+
2023-09-17,Trump,42.86
|
| 676 |
+
2023-09-17,Harris,41.00
|
| 677 |
+
2023-09-18,Trump,42.10
|
| 678 |
+
2023-09-18,Harris,41.00
|
| 679 |
+
2023-09-19,Trump,42.55
|
| 680 |
+
2023-09-19,Harris,41.00
|
| 681 |
+
2023-09-20,Trump,43.21
|
| 682 |
+
2023-09-20,Harris,41.00
|
| 683 |
+
2023-09-21,Trump,43.41
|
| 684 |
+
2023-09-22,Trump,43.13
|
| 685 |
+
2023-09-23,Trump,43.13
|
| 686 |
+
2023-09-24,Trump,43.23
|
| 687 |
+
2023-09-25,Trump,44.94
|
| 688 |
+
2023-09-26,Trump,44.32
|
| 689 |
+
2023-09-26,Harris,41.00
|
| 690 |
+
2023-09-27,Trump,43.72
|
| 691 |
+
2023-09-27,Harris,41.00
|
| 692 |
+
2023-09-28,Trump,43.64
|
| 693 |
+
2023-09-28,Harris,41.00
|
| 694 |
+
2023-09-29,Trump,43.67
|
| 695 |
+
2023-09-29,Harris,41.00
|
| 696 |
+
2023-09-30,Trump,43.71
|
| 697 |
+
2023-09-30,Harris,41.00
|
| 698 |
+
2023-10-01,Trump,44.00
|
| 699 |
+
2023-10-01,Harris,41.00
|
| 700 |
+
2023-10-02,Trump,42.90
|
| 701 |
+
2023-10-02,Harris,41.00
|
| 702 |
+
2023-10-03,Trump,43.07
|
| 703 |
+
2023-10-04,Trump,42.16
|
| 704 |
+
2023-10-05,Trump,41.85
|
| 705 |
+
2023-10-06,Trump,41.62
|
| 706 |
+
2023-10-07,Trump,41.74
|
| 707 |
+
2023-10-08,Trump,41.47
|
| 708 |
+
2023-10-09,Trump,41.73
|
| 709 |
+
2023-10-10,Trump,41.34
|
| 710 |
+
2023-10-11,Trump,41.83
|
| 711 |
+
2023-10-12,Trump,42.05
|
| 712 |
+
2023-10-13,Trump,42.05
|
| 713 |
+
2023-10-14,Trump,41.86
|
| 714 |
+
2023-10-15,Trump,42.45
|
| 715 |
+
2023-10-16,Trump,42.07
|
| 716 |
+
2023-10-17,Trump,42.50
|
| 717 |
+
2023-10-18,Trump,43.35
|
| 718 |
+
2023-10-18,Harris,41.33
|
| 719 |
+
2023-10-19,Trump,42.98
|
| 720 |
+
2023-10-19,Harris,41.33
|
| 721 |
+
2023-10-20,Trump,42.41
|
| 722 |
+
2023-10-20,Harris,41.33
|
| 723 |
+
2023-10-21,Trump,42.48
|
| 724 |
+
2023-10-21,Harris,41.33
|
| 725 |
+
2023-10-22,Trump,42.40
|
| 726 |
+
2023-10-22,Harris,41.33
|
| 727 |
+
2023-10-23,Trump,42.48
|
| 728 |
+
2023-10-23,Harris,41.33
|
| 729 |
+
2023-10-24,Trump,42.50
|
| 730 |
+
2023-10-24,Harris,41.50
|
| 731 |
+
2023-10-25,Trump,41.67
|
| 732 |
+
2023-10-25,Harris,42.00
|
| 733 |
+
2023-10-26,Trump,43.15
|
| 734 |
+
2023-10-26,Harris,43.33
|
| 735 |
+
2023-10-27,Trump,43.70
|
| 736 |
+
2023-10-27,Harris,43.33
|
| 737 |
+
2023-10-28,Trump,43.70
|
| 738 |
+
2023-10-28,Harris,43.33
|
| 739 |
+
2023-10-29,Trump,43.03
|
| 740 |
+
2023-10-29,Harris,43.33
|
| 741 |
+
2023-10-30,Trump,42.60
|
| 742 |
+
2023-10-30,Harris,43.33
|
| 743 |
+
2023-10-31,Trump,42.28
|
| 744 |
+
2023-10-31,Harris,44.00
|
| 745 |
+
2023-11-01,Trump,42.69
|
| 746 |
+
2023-11-01,Harris,44.00
|
| 747 |
+
2023-11-02,Trump,41.73
|
| 748 |
+
2023-11-03,Trump,41.98
|
| 749 |
+
2023-11-04,Trump,42.02
|
| 750 |
+
2023-11-05,Trump,42.26
|
| 751 |
+
2023-11-06,Trump,42.81
|
| 752 |
+
2023-11-07,Trump,43.64
|
| 753 |
+
2023-11-08,Trump,43.35
|
| 754 |
+
2023-11-09,Trump,43.08
|
| 755 |
+
2023-11-10,Trump,43.02
|
| 756 |
+
2023-11-11,Trump,42.22
|
| 757 |
+
2023-11-11,Harris,31.50
|
| 758 |
+
2023-11-12,Trump,42.64
|
| 759 |
+
2023-11-12,Harris,31.50
|
| 760 |
+
2023-11-13,Trump,43.60
|
| 761 |
+
2023-11-13,Harris,34.20
|
| 762 |
+
2023-11-14,Trump,43.19
|
| 763 |
+
2023-11-14,Harris,34.20
|
| 764 |
+
2023-11-15,Trump,43.19
|
| 765 |
+
2023-11-15,Harris,34.20
|
| 766 |
+
2023-11-16,Trump,43.83
|
| 767 |
+
2023-11-16,Harris,36.88
|
| 768 |
+
2023-11-17,Trump,43.90
|
| 769 |
+
2023-11-17,Harris,36.88
|
| 770 |
+
2023-11-18,Trump,44.34
|
| 771 |
+
2023-11-18,Harris,42.25
|
| 772 |
+
2023-11-19,Trump,44.90
|
| 773 |
+
2023-11-19,Harris,42.25
|
| 774 |
+
2023-11-20,Trump,44.65
|
| 775 |
+
2023-11-20,Harris,41.00
|
| 776 |
+
2023-11-21,Trump,44.92
|
| 777 |
+
2023-11-21,Harris,41.00
|
| 778 |
+
2023-11-22,Trump,44.92
|
| 779 |
+
2023-11-22,Harris,41.00
|
| 780 |
+
2023-11-23,Trump,44.16
|
| 781 |
+
2023-11-23,Harris,40.00
|
| 782 |
+
2023-11-24,Trump,43.97
|
| 783 |
+
2023-11-24,Harris,40.00
|
| 784 |
+
2023-11-25,Trump,43.83
|
| 785 |
+
2023-11-25,Harris,40.00
|
| 786 |
+
2023-11-26,Trump,42.46
|
| 787 |
+
2023-11-26,Harris,40.00
|
| 788 |
+
2023-11-27,Trump,40.64
|
| 789 |
+
2023-11-28,Trump,41.62
|
| 790 |
+
2023-11-29,Trump,41.62
|
| 791 |
+
2023-11-30,Trump,41.77
|
| 792 |
+
2023-12-01,Trump,42.31
|
| 793 |
+
2023-12-02,Trump,42.50
|
| 794 |
+
2023-12-03,Trump,42.53
|
| 795 |
+
2023-12-04,Trump,43.21
|
| 796 |
+
2023-12-05,Trump,42.53
|
| 797 |
+
2023-12-06,Trump,42.91
|
| 798 |
+
2023-12-07,Trump,43.52
|
| 799 |
+
2023-12-08,Trump,43.10
|
| 800 |
+
2023-12-09,Trump,43.06
|
| 801 |
+
2023-12-10,Trump,43.65
|
| 802 |
+
2023-12-11,Trump,42.92
|
| 803 |
+
2023-12-12,Trump,43.23
|
| 804 |
+
2023-12-13,Trump,43.23
|
| 805 |
+
2023-12-14,Trump,43.32
|
| 806 |
+
2023-12-15,Trump,43.65
|
| 807 |
+
2023-12-16,Trump,43.68
|
| 808 |
+
2023-12-17,Trump,43.38
|
| 809 |
+
2023-12-18,Trump,44.23
|
| 810 |
+
2023-12-19,Trump,44.14
|
| 811 |
+
2023-12-19,Harris,42.00
|
| 812 |
+
2023-12-20,Trump,43.98
|
| 813 |
+
2023-12-20,Harris,42.00
|
| 814 |
+
2023-12-21,Trump,43.60
|
| 815 |
+
2023-12-21,Harris,42.00
|
| 816 |
+
2023-12-22,Trump,43.57
|
| 817 |
+
2023-12-22,Harris,42.00
|
| 818 |
+
2023-12-23,Trump,43.46
|
| 819 |
+
2023-12-23,Harris,42.00
|
| 820 |
+
2023-12-24,Trump,43.60
|
| 821 |
+
2023-12-24,Harris,42.00
|
| 822 |
+
2023-12-25,Trump,43.00
|
| 823 |
+
2023-12-25,Harris,42.00
|
| 824 |
+
2023-12-26,Trump,42.17
|
| 825 |
+
2023-12-27,Trump,42.00
|
| 826 |
+
2023-12-28,Trump,42.00
|
| 827 |
+
2023-12-29,Trump,42.00
|
| 828 |
+
2023-12-30,Trump,42.11
|
| 829 |
+
2023-12-31,Trump,42.22
|
| 830 |
+
2024-01-01,Trump,42.22
|
| 831 |
+
2024-01-02,Trump,42.88
|
| 832 |
+
2024-01-03,Trump,44.00
|
| 833 |
+
2024-01-04,Trump,43.62
|
| 834 |
+
2024-01-05,Trump,43.00
|
| 835 |
+
2024-01-06,Trump,42.93
|
| 836 |
+
2024-01-07,Trump,42.57
|
| 837 |
+
2024-01-08,Trump,42.63
|
| 838 |
+
2024-01-09,Trump,41.90
|
| 839 |
+
2024-01-10,Trump,41.32
|
| 840 |
+
2024-01-11,Trump,40.98
|
| 841 |
+
2024-01-12,Trump,41.78
|
| 842 |
+
2024-01-13,Trump,41.88
|
| 843 |
+
2024-01-14,Trump,42.18
|
| 844 |
+
2024-01-15,Trump,42.18
|
| 845 |
+
2024-01-16,Trump,43.34
|
| 846 |
+
2024-01-17,Trump,44.01
|
| 847 |
+
2024-01-18,Trump,44.36
|
| 848 |
+
2024-01-19,Trump,44.50
|
| 849 |
+
2024-01-20,Trump,44.50
|
| 850 |
+
2024-01-21,Trump,44.61
|
| 851 |
+
2024-01-22,Trump,44.84
|
| 852 |
+
2024-01-23,Trump,45.10
|
| 853 |
+
2024-01-24,Trump,43.95
|
| 854 |
+
2024-01-25,Trump,43.56
|
| 855 |
+
2024-01-26,Trump,43.63
|
| 856 |
+
2024-01-27,Trump,43.63
|
| 857 |
+
2024-01-28,Trump,41.79
|
| 858 |
+
2024-01-29,Trump,41.69
|
| 859 |
+
2024-01-30,Trump,42.10
|
| 860 |
+
2024-01-31,Trump,42.79
|
| 861 |
+
2024-01-31,Harris,42.00
|
| 862 |
+
2024-02-01,Trump,42.97
|
| 863 |
+
2024-02-01,Harris,42.00
|
| 864 |
+
2024-02-02,Trump,43.06
|
| 865 |
+
2024-02-02,Harris,42.00
|
| 866 |
+
2024-02-03,Trump,43.04
|
| 867 |
+
2024-02-03,Harris,42.00
|
| 868 |
+
2024-02-04,Trump,43.97
|
| 869 |
+
2024-02-04,Harris,42.00
|
| 870 |
+
2024-02-05,Trump,44.40
|
| 871 |
+
2024-02-05,Harris,42.00
|
| 872 |
+
2024-02-06,Trump,44.21
|
| 873 |
+
2024-02-06,Harris,42.00
|
| 874 |
+
2024-02-07,Trump,43.24
|
| 875 |
+
2024-02-08,Trump,43.21
|
| 876 |
+
2024-02-09,Trump,43.21
|
| 877 |
+
2024-02-10,Trump,43.39
|
| 878 |
+
2024-02-11,Trump,43.27
|
| 879 |
+
2024-02-12,Trump,42.96
|
| 880 |
+
2024-02-13,Trump,42.91
|
| 881 |
+
2024-02-14,Trump,45.00
|
| 882 |
+
2024-02-14,Harris,42.70
|
| 883 |
+
2024-02-15,Trump,45.34
|
| 884 |
+
2024-02-15,Harris,42.70
|
| 885 |
+
2024-02-16,Trump,45.59
|
| 886 |
+
2024-02-16,Harris,42.70
|
| 887 |
+
2024-02-17,Trump,45.68
|
| 888 |
+
2024-02-17,Harris,42.70
|
| 889 |
+
2024-02-18,Trump,45.74
|
| 890 |
+
2024-02-18,Harris,42.70
|
| 891 |
+
2024-02-19,Trump,45.75
|
| 892 |
+
2024-02-19,Harris,42.70
|
| 893 |
+
2024-02-20,Trump,45.72
|
| 894 |
+
2024-02-20,Harris,42.70
|
| 895 |
+
2024-02-21,Trump,45.11
|
| 896 |
+
2024-02-22,Trump,44.18
|
| 897 |
+
2024-02-23,Trump,43.89
|
| 898 |
+
2024-02-24,Trump,43.84
|
| 899 |
+
2024-02-25,Trump,43.64
|
| 900 |
+
2024-02-26,Trump,44.26
|
| 901 |
+
2024-02-27,Trump,44.34
|
| 902 |
+
2024-02-28,Trump,44.68
|
| 903 |
+
2024-02-28,Harris,41.50
|
| 904 |
+
2024-02-29,Trump,45.00
|
| 905 |
+
2024-02-29,Harris,41.50
|
| 906 |
+
2024-03-01,Trump,44.48
|
| 907 |
+
2024-03-01,Harris,41.50
|
| 908 |
+
2024-03-02,Trump,44.43
|
| 909 |
+
2024-03-02,Harris,41.50
|
| 910 |
+
2024-03-03,Trump,44.51
|
| 911 |
+
2024-03-03,Harris,41.50
|
| 912 |
+
2024-03-04,Trump,44.20
|
| 913 |
+
2024-03-04,Harris,41.50
|
| 914 |
+
2024-03-05,Trump,44.14
|
| 915 |
+
2024-03-05,Harris,41.50
|
| 916 |
+
2024-03-06,Trump,43.61
|
| 917 |
+
2024-03-07,Trump,43.56
|
| 918 |
+
2024-03-08,Trump,43.94
|
| 919 |
+
2024-03-09,Trump,43.93
|
| 920 |
+
2024-03-10,Trump,44.71
|
| 921 |
+
2024-03-11,Trump,44.35
|
| 922 |
+
2024-03-12,Trump,44.33
|
| 923 |
+
2024-03-13,Trump,42.29
|
| 924 |
+
2024-03-14,Trump,42.46
|
| 925 |
+
2024-03-14,Harris,41.00
|
| 926 |
+
2024-03-15,Trump,42.65
|
| 927 |
+
2024-03-15,Harris,41.00
|
| 928 |
+
2024-03-16,Trump,42.65
|
| 929 |
+
2024-03-16,Harris,41.00
|
| 930 |
+
2024-03-17,Trump,42.47
|
| 931 |
+
2024-03-17,Harris,41.00
|
| 932 |
+
2024-03-18,Trump,42.45
|
| 933 |
+
2024-03-18,Harris,41.00
|
| 934 |
+
2024-03-19,Trump,42.52
|
| 935 |
+
2024-03-19,Harris,41.00
|
| 936 |
+
2024-03-20,Trump,43.64
|
| 937 |
+
2024-03-20,Harris,41.00
|
| 938 |
+
2024-03-21,Trump,44.16
|
| 939 |
+
2024-03-22,Trump,44.80
|
| 940 |
+
2024-03-23,Trump,44.80
|
| 941 |
+
2024-03-24,Trump,44.93
|
| 942 |
+
2024-03-25,Trump,45.03
|
| 943 |
+
2024-03-25,Harris,45.00
|
| 944 |
+
2024-03-26,Trump,44.81
|
| 945 |
+
2024-03-26,Harris,45.00
|
| 946 |
+
2024-03-27,Trump,45.01
|
| 947 |
+
2024-03-27,Harris,45.00
|
| 948 |
+
2024-03-28,Trump,44.83
|
| 949 |
+
2024-03-28,Harris,45.00
|
| 950 |
+
2024-03-29,Trump,44.59
|
| 951 |
+
2024-03-29,Harris,45.00
|
| 952 |
+
2024-03-30,Trump,44.59
|
| 953 |
+
2024-03-30,Harris,45.00
|
| 954 |
+
2024-03-31,Trump,43.86
|
| 955 |
+
2024-03-31,Harris,45.00
|
| 956 |
+
2024-04-01,Trump,43.37
|
| 957 |
+
2024-04-02,Trump,43.28
|
| 958 |
+
2024-04-03,Trump,43.26
|
| 959 |
+
2024-04-04,Trump,42.41
|
| 960 |
+
2024-04-05,Trump,41.91
|
| 961 |
+
2024-04-06,Trump,41.96
|
| 962 |
+
2024-04-07,Trump,42.77
|
| 963 |
+
2024-04-08,Trump,42.22
|
| 964 |
+
2024-04-09,Trump,42.22
|
| 965 |
+
2024-04-10,Trump,42.48
|
| 966 |
+
2024-04-11,Trump,42.89
|
| 967 |
+
2024-04-12,Trump,43.20
|
| 968 |
+
2024-04-13,Trump,43.20
|
| 969 |
+
2024-04-14,Trump,43.52
|
| 970 |
+
2024-04-15,Trump,43.83
|
| 971 |
+
2024-04-16,Trump,43.96
|
| 972 |
+
2024-04-16,Harris,43.00
|
| 973 |
+
2024-04-17,Trump,43.93
|
| 974 |
+
2024-04-17,Harris,43.00
|
| 975 |
+
2024-04-18,Trump,43.76
|
| 976 |
+
2024-04-18,Harris,43.00
|
| 977 |
+
2024-04-19,Trump,43.76
|
| 978 |
+
2024-04-19,Harris,43.00
|
| 979 |
+
2024-04-20,Trump,43.85
|
| 980 |
+
2024-04-20,Harris,43.00
|
| 981 |
+
2024-04-21,Trump,43.57
|
| 982 |
+
2024-04-21,Harris,43.00
|
| 983 |
+
2024-04-22,Trump,43.86
|
| 984 |
+
2024-04-22,Harris,41.00
|
| 985 |
+
2024-04-23,Trump,43.87
|
| 986 |
+
2024-04-23,Harris,39.00
|
| 987 |
+
2024-04-24,Trump,43.60
|
| 988 |
+
2024-04-24,Harris,39.00
|
| 989 |
+
2024-04-25,Trump,44.26
|
| 990 |
+
2024-04-25,Harris,39.00
|
| 991 |
+
2024-04-26,Trump,44.26
|
| 992 |
+
2024-04-26,Harris,39.00
|
| 993 |
+
2024-04-27,Trump,44.15
|
| 994 |
+
2024-04-27,Harris,39.00
|
| 995 |
+
2024-04-28,Trump,43.76
|
| 996 |
+
2024-04-28,Harris,39.00
|
| 997 |
+
2024-04-29,Trump,43.80
|
| 998 |
+
2024-04-30,Trump,42.78
|
| 999 |
+
2024-05-01,Trump,42.87
|
| 1000 |
+
2024-05-02,Trump,42.25
|
| 1001 |
+
2024-05-03,Trump,41.90
|
| 1002 |
+
2024-05-04,Trump,41.94
|
| 1003 |
+
2024-05-05,Trump,42.01
|
| 1004 |
+
2024-05-06,Trump,42.12
|
| 1005 |
+
2024-05-07,Trump,42.62
|
| 1006 |
+
2024-05-08,Trump,42.11
|
| 1007 |
+
2024-05-09,Trump,41.79
|
| 1008 |
+
2024-05-10,Trump,42.37
|
| 1009 |
+
2024-05-11,Trump,42.37
|
| 1010 |
+
2024-05-12,Trump,42.37
|
| 1011 |
+
2024-05-13,Trump,42.76
|
| 1012 |
+
2024-05-14,Trump,42.27
|
| 1013 |
+
2024-05-15,Trump,43.15
|
| 1014 |
+
2024-05-15,Harris,41.00
|
| 1015 |
+
2024-05-16,Trump,43.82
|
| 1016 |
+
2024-05-16,Harris,41.00
|
| 1017 |
+
2024-05-17,Trump,43.85
|
| 1018 |
+
2024-05-17,Harris,41.00
|
| 1019 |
+
2024-05-18,Trump,43.85
|
| 1020 |
+
2024-05-18,Harris,41.00
|
| 1021 |
+
2024-05-19,Trump,43.85
|
| 1022 |
+
2024-05-19,Harris,41.00
|
| 1023 |
+
2024-05-20,Trump,43.80
|
| 1024 |
+
2024-05-20,Harris,41.00
|
| 1025 |
+
2024-05-21,Trump,44.67
|
| 1026 |
+
2024-05-21,Harris,41.00
|
| 1027 |
+
2024-05-22,Trump,44.46
|
| 1028 |
+
2024-05-23,Trump,44.37
|
| 1029 |
+
2024-05-24,Trump,44.37
|
| 1030 |
+
2024-05-25,Trump,44.37
|
| 1031 |
+
2024-05-26,Trump,44.11
|
| 1032 |
+
2024-05-27,Trump,44.12
|
| 1033 |
+
2024-05-28,Trump,43.88
|
| 1034 |
+
2024-05-29,Trump,43.94
|
| 1035 |
+
2024-05-30,Trump,41.69
|
| 1036 |
+
2024-05-31,Trump,40.92
|
| 1037 |
+
2024-06-01,Trump,40.92
|
| 1038 |
+
2024-06-02,Trump,40.92
|
| 1039 |
+
2024-06-03,Trump,41.00
|
| 1040 |
+
2024-06-04,Trump,41.60
|
| 1041 |
+
2024-06-05,Trump,41.88
|
| 1042 |
+
2024-06-06,Trump,42.77
|
| 1043 |
+
2024-06-07,Trump,44.66
|
| 1044 |
+
2024-06-08,Trump,44.66
|
| 1045 |
+
2024-06-09,Trump,43.96
|
| 1046 |
+
2024-06-10,Trump,43.64
|
| 1047 |
+
2024-06-11,Trump,43.23
|
| 1048 |
+
2024-06-12,Trump,42.24
|
| 1049 |
+
2024-06-13,Trump,41.91
|
| 1050 |
+
2024-06-14,Trump,41.39
|
| 1051 |
+
2024-06-15,Trump,41.34
|
| 1052 |
+
2024-06-16,Trump,41.60
|
| 1053 |
+
2024-06-17,Trump,42.22
|
| 1054 |
+
2024-06-18,Trump,42.22
|
| 1055 |
+
2024-06-19,Trump,43.00
|
| 1056 |
+
2024-06-20,Trump,43.27
|
| 1057 |
+
2024-06-21,Trump,44.49
|
| 1058 |
+
2024-06-22,Trump,44.55
|
| 1059 |
+
2024-06-23,Trump,44.61
|
| 1060 |
+
2024-06-24,Trump,44.27
|
| 1061 |
+
2024-06-24,Harris,42.00
|
| 1062 |
+
2024-06-25,Trump,44.17
|
| 1063 |
+
2024-06-25,Harris,42.00
|
| 1064 |
+
2024-06-26,Trump,43.85
|
| 1065 |
+
2024-06-26,Harris,42.00
|
| 1066 |
+
2024-06-27,Trump,43.11
|
| 1067 |
+
2024-06-27,Harris,42.00
|
| 1068 |
+
2024-06-28,Trump,43.47
|
| 1069 |
+
2024-06-28,Harris,43.50
|
| 1070 |
+
2024-06-29,Trump,43.48
|
| 1071 |
+
2024-06-29,Harris,43.50
|
| 1072 |
+
2024-06-30,Trump,43.88
|
| 1073 |
+
2024-06-30,Harris,42.83
|
| 1074 |
+
2024-07-01,Trump,44.05
|
| 1075 |
+
2024-07-01,Harris,43.33
|
| 1076 |
+
2024-07-02,Trump,43.38
|
| 1077 |
+
2024-07-02,Harris,42.50
|
| 1078 |
+
2024-07-03,Trump,43.61
|
| 1079 |
+
2024-07-03,Harris,42.40
|
| 1080 |
+
2024-07-04,Trump,43.77
|
| 1081 |
+
2024-07-04,Harris,42.40
|
| 1082 |
+
2024-07-05,Trump,43.42
|
| 1083 |
+
2024-07-05,Harris,42.11
|
| 1084 |
+
2024-07-06,Trump,43.23
|
| 1085 |
+
2024-07-06,Harris,42.10
|
| 1086 |
+
2024-07-07,Trump,42.49
|
| 1087 |
+
2024-07-07,Harris,41.83
|
| 1088 |
+
2024-07-08,Trump,43.31
|
| 1089 |
+
2024-07-08,Harris,40.83
|
| 1090 |
+
2024-07-09,Trump,44.30
|
| 1091 |
+
2024-07-09,Harris,42.23
|
| 1092 |
+
2024-07-10,Trump,44.82
|
| 1093 |
+
2024-07-10,Harris,43.98
|
| 1094 |
+
2024-07-11,Trump,45.05
|
| 1095 |
+
2024-07-11,Harris,43.88
|
| 1096 |
+
2024-07-12,Trump,45.05
|
| 1097 |
+
2024-07-12,Harris,43.88
|
| 1098 |
+
2024-07-13,Trump,45.52
|
| 1099 |
+
2024-07-13,Harris,43.53
|
| 1100 |
+
2024-07-14,Trump,45.22
|
| 1101 |
+
2024-07-14,Harris,41.44
|
| 1102 |
+
2024-07-15,Trump,44.99
|
| 1103 |
+
2024-07-15,Harris,42.35
|
| 1104 |
+
2024-07-16,Trump,44.60
|
| 1105 |
+
2024-07-16,Harris,41.69
|
| 1106 |
+
2024-07-17,Trump,44.49
|
| 1107 |
+
2024-07-17,Harris,40.81
|
| 1108 |
+
2024-07-18,Trump,44.71
|
| 1109 |
+
2024-07-18,Harris,40.95
|
| 1110 |
+
2024-07-21,Trump,46.52
|
| 1111 |
+
2024-07-21,Harris,43.19
|
| 1112 |
+
2024-07-22,Trump,46.38
|
| 1113 |
+
2024-07-22,Harris,43.08
|
| 1114 |
+
2024-07-23,Trump,46.69
|
| 1115 |
+
2024-07-23,Harris,43.28
|
| 1116 |
+
2024-07-24,Trump,45.93
|
| 1117 |
+
2024-07-24,Harris,43.28
|
| 1118 |
+
2024-07-25,Trump,45.77
|
| 1119 |
+
2024-07-25,Harris,43.84
|
| 1120 |
+
2024-07-26,Trump,45.78
|
| 1121 |
+
2024-07-26,Harris,44.15
|
| 1122 |
+
2024-07-27,Trump,45.70
|
| 1123 |
+
2024-07-27,Harris,44.34
|
| 1124 |
+
2024-07-28,Trump,45.06
|
| 1125 |
+
2024-07-28,Harris,45.01
|
| 1126 |
+
2024-07-29,Trump,45.21
|
| 1127 |
+
2024-07-29,Harris,45.23
|
| 1128 |
+
2024-07-30,Trump,45.46
|
| 1129 |
+
2024-07-30,Harris,45.62
|
| 1130 |
+
2024-07-31,Trump,45.70
|
| 1131 |
+
2024-07-31,Harris,46.14
|
| 1132 |
+
2024-08-01,Trump,45.49
|
| 1133 |
+
2024-08-01,Harris,46.69
|
| 1134 |
+
2024-08-02,Trump,45.48
|
| 1135 |
+
2024-08-02,Harris,46.66
|
| 1136 |
+
2024-08-03,Trump,45.61
|
| 1137 |
+
2024-08-03,Harris,46.78
|
| 1138 |
+
2024-08-04,Trump,45.32
|
| 1139 |
+
2024-08-04,Harris,47.24
|
| 1140 |
+
2024-08-05,Trump,45.06
|
| 1141 |
+
2024-08-05,Harris,47.65
|
| 1142 |
+
2024-08-06,Trump,45.19
|
| 1143 |
+
2024-08-06,Harris,47.79
|
| 1144 |
+
2024-08-07,Trump,45.19
|
| 1145 |
+
2024-08-07,Harris,47.79
|
| 1146 |
+
2024-08-08,Trump,45.32
|
| 1147 |
+
2024-08-08,Harris,47.53
|
| 1148 |
+
2024-08-09,Trump,45.21
|
| 1149 |
+
2024-08-09,Harris,47.66
|
| 1150 |
+
2024-08-10,Trump,45.06
|
| 1151 |
+
2024-08-10,Harris,47.83
|
| 1152 |
+
2024-08-11,Trump,44.47
|
| 1153 |
+
2024-08-11,Harris,47.16
|
| 1154 |
+
2024-08-12,Trump,44.64
|
| 1155 |
+
2024-08-12,Harris,47.12
|
| 1156 |
+
2024-08-13,Trump,44.55
|
| 1157 |
+
2024-08-13,Harris,47.34
|
| 1158 |
+
2024-08-14,Trump,44.85
|
| 1159 |
+
2024-08-14,Harris,47.60
|
| 1160 |
+
2024-08-15,Trump,44.70
|
| 1161 |
+
2024-08-15,Harris,47.79
|
| 1162 |
+
2024-08-16,Trump,44.84
|
| 1163 |
+
2024-08-16,Harris,47.90
|
| 1164 |
+
2024-08-17,Trump,44.84
|
| 1165 |
+
2024-08-17,Harris,47.90
|
| 1166 |
+
2024-08-18,Trump,44.84
|
| 1167 |
+
2024-08-18,Harris,48.15
|
| 1168 |
+
2024-08-19,Trump,44.71
|
| 1169 |
+
2024-08-19,Harris,48.21
|
| 1170 |
+
2024-08-20,Trump,44.67
|
| 1171 |
+
2024-08-20,Harris,48.18
|
| 1172 |
+
2024-08-21,Trump,44.03
|
| 1173 |
+
2024-08-21,Harris,47.88
|
| 1174 |
+
2024-08-22,Trump,44.19
|
| 1175 |
+
2024-08-22,Harris,47.94
|
| 1176 |
+
2024-08-23,Trump,43.89
|
| 1177 |
+
2024-08-23,Harris,47.83
|
| 1178 |
+
2024-08-24,Trump,43.98
|
| 1179 |
+
2024-08-24,Harris,48.05
|
| 1180 |
+
2024-08-25,Trump,44.69
|
| 1181 |
+
2024-08-25,Harris,48.44
|
| 1182 |
+
2024-08-26,Trump,44.37
|
| 1183 |
+
2024-08-26,Harris,47.97
|
| 1184 |
+
2024-08-27,Trump,44.69
|
| 1185 |
+
2024-08-27,Harris,48.26
|
| 1186 |
+
2024-08-28,Trump,44.19
|
| 1187 |
+
2024-08-28,Harris,48.03
|
| 1188 |
+
2024-08-29,Trump,44.14
|
| 1189 |
+
2024-08-29,Harris,47.99
|
| 1190 |
+
2024-08-30,Trump,44.22
|
| 1191 |
+
2024-08-30,Harris,47.95
|
| 1192 |
+
2024-08-31,Trump,44.21
|
| 1193 |
+
2024-08-31,Harris,47.84
|
| 1194 |
+
2024-09-01,Trump,44.08
|
| 1195 |
+
2024-09-01,Harris,47.67
|
| 1196 |
+
2024-09-02,Trump,44.55
|
| 1197 |
+
2024-09-02,Harris,48.12
|
| 1198 |
+
2024-09-03,Trump,44.58
|
| 1199 |
+
2024-09-03,Harris,47.89
|
| 1200 |
+
2024-09-04,Trump,45.26
|
| 1201 |
+
2024-09-04,Harris,47.86
|
| 1202 |
+
2024-09-05,Trump,45.72
|
| 1203 |
+
2024-09-05,Harris,48.11
|
| 1204 |
+
2024-09-06,Trump,45.96
|
| 1205 |
+
2024-09-06,Harris,47.90
|
| 1206 |
+
2024-09-07,Trump,45.99
|
| 1207 |
+
2024-09-07,Harris,47.87
|
| 1208 |
+
2024-09-08,Trump,45.73
|
| 1209 |
+
2024-09-08,Harris,47.90
|
| 1210 |
+
2024-09-09,Trump,45.67
|
| 1211 |
+
2024-09-09,Harris,47.82
|
| 1212 |
+
2024-09-10,Trump,45.42
|
| 1213 |
+
2024-09-10,Harris,47.75
|
| 1214 |
+
2024-09-11,Trump,46.14
|
| 1215 |
+
2024-09-11,Harris,48.38
|
| 1216 |
+
2024-09-12,Trump,45.54
|
| 1217 |
+
2024-09-12,Harris,47.70
|
| 1218 |
+
2024-09-13,Trump,45.18
|
| 1219 |
+
2024-09-13,Harris,48.77
|
| 1220 |
+
2024-09-14,Trump,45.16
|
| 1221 |
+
2024-09-14,Harris,48.79
|
| 1222 |
+
2024-09-15,Trump,45.02
|
| 1223 |
+
2024-09-15,Harris,48.89
|
| 1224 |
+
2024-09-16,Trump,45.36
|
| 1225 |
+
2024-09-16,Harris,48.72
|
| 1226 |
+
2024-09-17,Trump,45.25
|
| 1227 |
+
2024-09-17,Harris,48.85
|
| 1228 |
+
2024-09-18,Trump,45.28
|
| 1229 |
+
2024-09-18,Harris,48.87
|
| 1230 |
+
2024-09-19,Trump,45.40
|
| 1231 |
+
2024-09-19,Harris,49.24
|
| 1232 |
+
2024-09-20,Trump,45.59
|
| 1233 |
+
2024-09-20,Harris,49.13
|
| 1234 |
+
2024-09-21,Trump,45.59
|
| 1235 |
+
2024-09-21,Harris,49.13
|
| 1236 |
+
2024-09-22,Trump,45.74
|
| 1237 |
+
2024-09-22,Harris,48.86
|
| 1238 |
+
2024-09-23,Trump,45.41
|
| 1239 |
+
2024-09-23,Harris,49.30
|
| 1240 |
+
2024-09-24,Trump,45.67
|
| 1241 |
+
2024-09-24,Harris,49.70
|
| 1242 |
+
2024-09-25,Trump,45.43
|
| 1243 |
+
2024-09-25,Harris,49.62
|
| 1244 |
+
2024-09-26,Trump,45.23
|
| 1245 |
+
2024-09-26,Harris,49.56
|
| 1246 |
+
2024-09-27,Trump,45.09
|
| 1247 |
+
2024-09-27,Harris,49.47
|
| 1248 |
+
2024-09-28,Trump,45.09
|
| 1249 |
+
2024-09-28,Harris,49.47
|
| 1250 |
+
2024-09-29,Trump,45.47
|
| 1251 |
+
2024-09-29,Harris,50.18
|
| 1252 |
+
2024-09-30,Trump,45.39
|
| 1253 |
+
2024-09-30,Harris,50.08
|
| 1254 |
+
2024-10-01,Trump,45.63
|
| 1255 |
+
2024-10-01,Harris,49.64
|
| 1256 |
+
2024-10-02,Trump,46.09
|
| 1257 |
+
2024-10-02,Harris,49.80
|
| 1258 |
+
2024-10-03,Trump,46.29
|
| 1259 |
+
2024-10-03,Harris,49.56
|
| 1260 |
+
2024-10-04,Trump,46.00
|
| 1261 |
+
2024-10-04,Harris,49.01
|
| 1262 |
+
2024-10-05,Trump,46.00
|
| 1263 |
+
2024-10-05,Harris,49.04
|
| 1264 |
+
2024-10-06,Trump,45.94
|
| 1265 |
+
2024-10-06,Harris,48.90
|
| 1266 |
+
2024-10-07,Trump,45.73
|
| 1267 |
+
2024-10-07,Harris,48.67
|
| 1268 |
+
2024-10-08,Trump,46.13
|
| 1269 |
+
2024-10-08,Harris,48.65
|
| 1270 |
+
2024-10-09,Trump,46.08
|
| 1271 |
+
2024-10-09,Harris,48.55
|
| 1272 |
+
2024-10-10,Trump,46.05
|
| 1273 |
+
2024-10-10,Harris,48.53
|
| 1274 |
+
2024-10-11,Trump,46.58
|
| 1275 |
+
2024-10-11,Harris,48.92
|
| 1276 |
+
2024-10-12,Trump,46.60
|
| 1277 |
+
2024-10-12,Harris,48.89
|
| 1278 |
+
2024-10-13,Trump,46.45
|
| 1279 |
+
2024-10-13,Harris,48.74
|
| 1280 |
+
2024-10-14,Trump,46.92
|
| 1281 |
+
2024-10-14,Harris,48.94
|
| 1282 |
+
2024-10-15,Trump,46.49
|
| 1283 |
+
2024-10-15,Harris,48.95
|
| 1284 |
+
2024-10-16,Trump,46.60
|
| 1285 |
+
2024-10-16,Harris,49.04
|
| 1286 |
+
2024-10-17,Trump,47.03
|
| 1287 |
+
2024-10-17,Harris,49.13
|
| 1288 |
+
2024-10-18,Trump,46.78
|
| 1289 |
+
2024-10-18,Harris,48.83
|
| 1290 |
+
2024-10-19,Trump,46.86
|
| 1291 |
+
2024-10-19,Harris,48.71
|
| 1292 |
+
2024-10-20,Trump,47.26
|
| 1293 |
+
2024-10-20,Harris,48.89
|
| 1294 |
+
2024-10-21,Trump,46.24
|
| 1295 |
+
2024-10-21,Harris,48.04
|
| 1296 |
+
2024-10-22,Trump,46.69
|
| 1297 |
+
2024-10-22,Harris,48.03
|
| 1298 |
+
2024-10-23,Trump,46.48
|
| 1299 |
+
2024-10-23,Harris,48.00
|
| 1300 |
+
2024-10-24,Trump,46.36
|
| 1301 |
+
2024-10-24,Harris,47.99
|
| 1302 |
+
2024-10-25,Trump,46.42
|
| 1303 |
+
2024-10-25,Harris,48.14
|
| 1304 |
+
2024-10-26,Trump,46.36
|
| 1305 |
+
2024-10-26,Harris,48.19
|
| 1306 |
+
2024-10-27,Trump,46.26
|
| 1307 |
+
2024-10-27,Harris,48.03
|
| 1308 |
+
2024-10-28,Trump,46.86
|
| 1309 |
+
2024-10-28,Harris,48.54
|
| 1310 |
+
2024-10-29,Trump,47.03
|
| 1311 |
+
2024-10-29,Harris,48.54
|
| 1312 |
+
2024-10-30,Trump,47.35
|
| 1313 |
+
2024-10-30,Harris,48.51
|
| 1314 |
+
2024-10-31,Trump,47.48
|
| 1315 |
+
2024-10-31,Harris,48.35
|
| 1316 |
+
2024-11-01,Trump,47.39
|
| 1317 |
+
2024-11-01,Harris,48.27
|
| 1318 |
+
2024-11-02,Trump,47.68
|
| 1319 |
+
2024-11-02,Harris,48.35
|
| 1320 |
+
2024-11-03,Trump,47.75
|
| 1321 |
+
2024-11-03,Harris,48.44
|
| 1322 |
+
2024-11-04,Trump,47.83
|
| 1323 |
+
2024-11-04,Harris,48.38
|
data/usa-popularvote-market-timeseries.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,616 @@
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
| 1 |
+
date,candidate,win_prob_pct
|
| 2 |
+
2024-01-10,Trump,50.00
|
| 3 |
+
2024-01-10,Harris,50.00
|
| 4 |
+
2024-01-11,Trump,28.50
|
| 5 |
+
2024-01-11,Harris,1.95
|
| 6 |
+
2024-01-12,Trump,29.50
|
| 7 |
+
2024-01-12,Harris,1.95
|
| 8 |
+
2024-01-13,Trump,30.50
|
| 9 |
+
2024-01-13,Harris,1.90
|
| 10 |
+
2024-01-14,Trump,30.50
|
| 11 |
+
2024-01-14,Harris,1.85
|
| 12 |
+
2024-01-15,Trump,29.50
|
| 13 |
+
2024-01-15,Harris,1.85
|
| 14 |
+
2024-01-16,Trump,28.50
|
| 15 |
+
2024-01-16,Harris,1.85
|
| 16 |
+
2024-01-17,Trump,29.50
|
| 17 |
+
2024-01-17,Harris,1.85
|
| 18 |
+
2024-01-18,Trump,29.50
|
| 19 |
+
2024-01-18,Harris,1.85
|
| 20 |
+
2024-01-19,Trump,29.50
|
| 21 |
+
2024-01-19,Harris,1.85
|
| 22 |
+
2024-01-20,Trump,28.50
|
| 23 |
+
2024-01-20,Harris,2.10
|
| 24 |
+
2024-01-21,Trump,28.50
|
| 25 |
+
2024-01-21,Harris,2.20
|
| 26 |
+
2024-01-22,Trump,28.50
|
| 27 |
+
2024-01-22,Harris,2.20
|
| 28 |
+
2024-01-23,Trump,28.50
|
| 29 |
+
2024-01-23,Harris,2.15
|
| 30 |
+
2024-01-24,Trump,28.50
|
| 31 |
+
2024-01-24,Harris,2.15
|
| 32 |
+
2024-01-25,Trump,28.50
|
| 33 |
+
2024-01-25,Harris,2.15
|
| 34 |
+
2024-01-26,Trump,28.50
|
| 35 |
+
2024-01-26,Harris,2.15
|
| 36 |
+
2024-01-27,Trump,28.50
|
| 37 |
+
2024-01-27,Harris,2.05
|
| 38 |
+
2024-01-28,Trump,28.50
|
| 39 |
+
2024-01-28,Harris,1.70
|
| 40 |
+
2024-01-29,Trump,28.50
|
| 41 |
+
2024-01-29,Harris,1.65
|
| 42 |
+
2024-01-30,Trump,28.50
|
| 43 |
+
2024-01-30,Harris,1.65
|
| 44 |
+
2024-01-31,Trump,28.50
|
| 45 |
+
2024-01-31,Harris,1.45
|
| 46 |
+
2024-02-01,Trump,27.50
|
| 47 |
+
2024-02-01,Harris,1.40
|
| 48 |
+
2024-02-02,Trump,27.50
|
| 49 |
+
2024-02-02,Harris,0.70
|
| 50 |
+
2024-02-03,Trump,27.50
|
| 51 |
+
2024-02-03,Harris,0.75
|
| 52 |
+
2024-02-04,Trump,26.50
|
| 53 |
+
2024-02-04,Harris,0.75
|
| 54 |
+
2024-02-05,Trump,26.50
|
| 55 |
+
2024-02-05,Harris,0.80
|
| 56 |
+
2024-02-06,Trump,26.50
|
| 57 |
+
2024-02-06,Harris,0.80
|
| 58 |
+
2024-02-07,Trump,26.50
|
| 59 |
+
2024-02-07,Harris,0.85
|
| 60 |
+
2024-02-08,Trump,26.50
|
| 61 |
+
2024-02-08,Harris,0.90
|
| 62 |
+
2024-02-09,Trump,26.50
|
| 63 |
+
2024-02-09,Harris,0.90
|
| 64 |
+
2024-02-10,Trump,26.50
|
| 65 |
+
2024-02-10,Harris,2.20
|
| 66 |
+
2024-02-11,Trump,27.50
|
| 67 |
+
2024-02-11,Harris,2.45
|
| 68 |
+
2024-02-12,Trump,26.50
|
| 69 |
+
2024-02-12,Harris,2.45
|
| 70 |
+
2024-02-13,Trump,30.50
|
| 71 |
+
2024-02-13,Harris,2.50
|
| 72 |
+
2024-02-14,Trump,31.50
|
| 73 |
+
2024-02-14,Harris,2.50
|
| 74 |
+
2024-02-15,Trump,31.00
|
| 75 |
+
2024-02-15,Harris,2.50
|
| 76 |
+
2024-02-16,Trump,30.50
|
| 77 |
+
2024-02-16,Harris,2.15
|
| 78 |
+
2024-02-17,Trump,30.50
|
| 79 |
+
2024-02-17,Harris,2.45
|
| 80 |
+
2024-02-18,Trump,30.50
|
| 81 |
+
2024-02-18,Harris,2.50
|
| 82 |
+
2024-02-19,Trump,30.50
|
| 83 |
+
2024-02-19,Harris,2.50
|
| 84 |
+
2024-02-20,Trump,30.50
|
| 85 |
+
2024-02-20,Harris,2.45
|
| 86 |
+
2024-02-21,Trump,31.50
|
| 87 |
+
2024-02-21,Harris,2.45
|
| 88 |
+
2024-02-22,Trump,31.50
|
| 89 |
+
2024-02-22,Harris,2.45
|
| 90 |
+
2024-02-23,Trump,31.50
|
| 91 |
+
2024-02-23,Harris,2.50
|
| 92 |
+
2024-02-24,Trump,31.50
|
| 93 |
+
2024-02-24,Harris,2.50
|
| 94 |
+
2024-02-25,Trump,31.50
|
| 95 |
+
2024-02-25,Harris,2.50
|
| 96 |
+
2024-02-26,Trump,32.50
|
| 97 |
+
2024-02-26,Harris,2.45
|
| 98 |
+
2024-02-27,Trump,32.50
|
| 99 |
+
2024-02-27,Harris,2.45
|
| 100 |
+
2024-02-28,Trump,32.50
|
| 101 |
+
2024-02-28,Harris,2.45
|
| 102 |
+
2024-02-29,Trump,32.50
|
| 103 |
+
2024-02-29,Harris,2.40
|
| 104 |
+
2024-03-01,Trump,32.50
|
| 105 |
+
2024-03-01,Harris,2.45
|
| 106 |
+
2024-03-02,Trump,32.50
|
| 107 |
+
2024-03-02,Harris,2.60
|
| 108 |
+
2024-03-03,Trump,32.50
|
| 109 |
+
2024-03-03,Harris,2.60
|
| 110 |
+
2024-03-04,Trump,32.50
|
| 111 |
+
2024-03-04,Harris,2.90
|
| 112 |
+
2024-03-05,Trump,32.50
|
| 113 |
+
2024-03-05,Harris,2.75
|
| 114 |
+
2024-03-06,Trump,32.50
|
| 115 |
+
2024-03-06,Harris,2.85
|
| 116 |
+
2024-03-07,Trump,32.50
|
| 117 |
+
2024-03-07,Harris,2.85
|
| 118 |
+
2024-03-08,Trump,32.50
|
| 119 |
+
2024-03-08,Harris,2.85
|
| 120 |
+
2024-03-09,Trump,32.50
|
| 121 |
+
2024-03-09,Harris,2.85
|
| 122 |
+
2024-03-10,Trump,32.50
|
| 123 |
+
2024-03-10,Harris,2.85
|
| 124 |
+
2024-03-11,Trump,32.50
|
| 125 |
+
2024-03-11,Harris,2.85
|
| 126 |
+
2024-03-12,Trump,32.50
|
| 127 |
+
2024-03-12,Harris,2.85
|
| 128 |
+
2024-03-13,Trump,32.50
|
| 129 |
+
2024-03-13,Harris,2.85
|
| 130 |
+
2024-03-14,Trump,32.50
|
| 131 |
+
2024-03-14,Harris,2.35
|
| 132 |
+
2024-03-15,Trump,32.50
|
| 133 |
+
2024-03-15,Harris,2.30
|
| 134 |
+
2024-03-16,Trump,32.50
|
| 135 |
+
2024-03-16,Harris,2.30
|
| 136 |
+
2024-03-17,Trump,32.50
|
| 137 |
+
2024-03-17,Harris,2.35
|
| 138 |
+
2024-03-18,Trump,32.50
|
| 139 |
+
2024-03-18,Harris,2.35
|
| 140 |
+
2024-03-19,Trump,32.50
|
| 141 |
+
2024-03-19,Harris,2.35
|
| 142 |
+
2024-03-20,Trump,32.50
|
| 143 |
+
2024-03-20,Harris,2.35
|
| 144 |
+
2024-03-21,Trump,32.50
|
| 145 |
+
2024-03-21,Harris,2.35
|
| 146 |
+
2024-03-22,Trump,32.50
|
| 147 |
+
2024-03-22,Harris,2.35
|
| 148 |
+
2024-03-23,Trump,32.50
|
| 149 |
+
2024-03-23,Harris,2.50
|
| 150 |
+
2024-03-24,Trump,32.50
|
| 151 |
+
2024-03-24,Harris,2.50
|
| 152 |
+
2024-03-25,Trump,32.50
|
| 153 |
+
2024-03-25,Harris,2.50
|
| 154 |
+
2024-03-26,Trump,32.50
|
| 155 |
+
2024-03-26,Harris,2.50
|
| 156 |
+
2024-03-27,Trump,30.50
|
| 157 |
+
2024-03-27,Harris,2.50
|
| 158 |
+
2024-03-28,Trump,29.50
|
| 159 |
+
2024-03-28,Harris,2.50
|
| 160 |
+
2024-03-29,Trump,29.50
|
| 161 |
+
2024-03-29,Harris,2.50
|
| 162 |
+
2024-03-30,Trump,28.50
|
| 163 |
+
2024-03-30,Harris,2.50
|
| 164 |
+
2024-03-31,Trump,28.50
|
| 165 |
+
2024-03-31,Harris,1.95
|
| 166 |
+
2024-04-01,Trump,28.50
|
| 167 |
+
2024-04-01,Harris,1.95
|
| 168 |
+
2024-04-02,Trump,28.50
|
| 169 |
+
2024-04-02,Harris,1.95
|
| 170 |
+
2024-04-03,Trump,28.50
|
| 171 |
+
2024-04-03,Harris,1.95
|
| 172 |
+
2024-04-04,Trump,28.50
|
| 173 |
+
2024-04-04,Harris,2.20
|
| 174 |
+
2024-04-05,Trump,28.50
|
| 175 |
+
2024-04-05,Harris,2.20
|
| 176 |
+
2024-04-06,Trump,25.50
|
| 177 |
+
2024-04-06,Harris,2.15
|
| 178 |
+
2024-04-07,Trump,25.50
|
| 179 |
+
2024-04-07,Harris,2.10
|
| 180 |
+
2024-04-08,Trump,25.50
|
| 181 |
+
2024-04-08,Harris,2.10
|
| 182 |
+
2024-04-09,Trump,25.50
|
| 183 |
+
2024-04-09,Harris,2.10
|
| 184 |
+
2024-04-10,Trump,25.50
|
| 185 |
+
2024-04-10,Harris,2.10
|
| 186 |
+
2024-04-11,Trump,26.50
|
| 187 |
+
2024-04-11,Harris,2.10
|
| 188 |
+
2024-04-12,Trump,26.50
|
| 189 |
+
2024-04-12,Harris,2.10
|
| 190 |
+
2024-04-13,Trump,26.50
|
| 191 |
+
2024-04-13,Harris,2.10
|
| 192 |
+
2024-04-14,Trump,26.50
|
| 193 |
+
2024-04-14,Harris,2.10
|
| 194 |
+
2024-04-15,Trump,26.50
|
| 195 |
+
2024-04-15,Harris,2.05
|
| 196 |
+
2024-04-16,Trump,26.50
|
| 197 |
+
2024-04-16,Harris,2.05
|
| 198 |
+
2024-04-17,Trump,26.50
|
| 199 |
+
2024-04-17,Harris,1.75
|
| 200 |
+
2024-04-18,Trump,26.50
|
| 201 |
+
2024-04-18,Harris,1.65
|
| 202 |
+
2024-04-19,Trump,25.50
|
| 203 |
+
2024-04-19,Harris,1.70
|
| 204 |
+
2024-04-20,Trump,23.50
|
| 205 |
+
2024-04-20,Harris,1.75
|
| 206 |
+
2024-04-21,Trump,23.50
|
| 207 |
+
2024-04-21,Harris,1.75
|
| 208 |
+
2024-04-22,Trump,23.50
|
| 209 |
+
2024-04-22,Harris,1.75
|
| 210 |
+
2024-04-23,Trump,23.50
|
| 211 |
+
2024-04-23,Harris,1.75
|
| 212 |
+
2024-04-24,Trump,23.50
|
| 213 |
+
2024-04-24,Harris,1.75
|
| 214 |
+
2024-04-25,Trump,23.50
|
| 215 |
+
2024-04-25,Harris,1.75
|
| 216 |
+
2024-04-26,Trump,24.50
|
| 217 |
+
2024-04-26,Harris,1.75
|
| 218 |
+
2024-04-27,Trump,24.50
|
| 219 |
+
2024-04-27,Harris,1.75
|
| 220 |
+
2024-04-28,Trump,24.50
|
| 221 |
+
2024-04-28,Harris,1.75
|
| 222 |
+
2024-04-29,Trump,24.50
|
| 223 |
+
2024-04-29,Harris,1.75
|
| 224 |
+
2024-04-30,Trump,24.50
|
| 225 |
+
2024-04-30,Harris,1.75
|
| 226 |
+
2024-05-01,Trump,27.50
|
| 227 |
+
2024-05-01,Harris,1.70
|
| 228 |
+
2024-05-02,Trump,27.50
|
| 229 |
+
2024-05-02,Harris,1.55
|
| 230 |
+
2024-05-03,Trump,27.50
|
| 231 |
+
2024-05-03,Harris,1.45
|
| 232 |
+
2024-05-04,Trump,27.50
|
| 233 |
+
2024-05-04,Harris,1.45
|
| 234 |
+
2024-05-05,Trump,27.50
|
| 235 |
+
2024-05-05,Harris,1.45
|
| 236 |
+
2024-05-06,Trump,28.50
|
| 237 |
+
2024-05-06,Harris,1.20
|
| 238 |
+
2024-05-07,Trump,28.50
|
| 239 |
+
2024-05-07,Harris,1.20
|
| 240 |
+
2024-05-08,Trump,28.50
|
| 241 |
+
2024-05-08,Harris,1.35
|
| 242 |
+
2024-05-09,Trump,28.50
|
| 243 |
+
2024-05-09,Harris,1.35
|
| 244 |
+
2024-05-10,Trump,27.50
|
| 245 |
+
2024-05-10,Harris,1.35
|
| 246 |
+
2024-05-11,Trump,27.50
|
| 247 |
+
2024-05-11,Harris,1.35
|
| 248 |
+
2024-05-12,Trump,27.50
|
| 249 |
+
2024-05-12,Harris,1.30
|
| 250 |
+
2024-05-13,Trump,27.50
|
| 251 |
+
2024-05-13,Harris,1.30
|
| 252 |
+
2024-05-14,Trump,30.50
|
| 253 |
+
2024-05-14,Harris,1.25
|
| 254 |
+
2024-05-15,Trump,31.50
|
| 255 |
+
2024-05-15,Harris,1.25
|
| 256 |
+
2024-05-16,Trump,31.50
|
| 257 |
+
2024-05-16,Harris,1.35
|
| 258 |
+
2024-05-17,Trump,31.50
|
| 259 |
+
2024-05-17,Harris,1.60
|
| 260 |
+
2024-05-18,Trump,31.50
|
| 261 |
+
2024-05-18,Harris,1.60
|
| 262 |
+
2024-05-19,Trump,31.50
|
| 263 |
+
2024-05-19,Harris,1.60
|
| 264 |
+
2024-05-20,Trump,31.50
|
| 265 |
+
2024-05-20,Harris,1.60
|
| 266 |
+
2024-05-21,Trump,31.50
|
| 267 |
+
2024-05-21,Harris,1.55
|
| 268 |
+
2024-05-22,Trump,31.50
|
| 269 |
+
2024-05-22,Harris,1.55
|
| 270 |
+
2024-05-23,Trump,31.50
|
| 271 |
+
2024-05-23,Harris,1.55
|
| 272 |
+
2024-05-24,Trump,31.50
|
| 273 |
+
2024-05-24,Harris,1.55
|
| 274 |
+
2024-05-25,Trump,32.50
|
| 275 |
+
2024-05-25,Harris,1.55
|
| 276 |
+
2024-05-26,Trump,32.50
|
| 277 |
+
2024-05-26,Harris,1.55
|
| 278 |
+
2024-05-27,Trump,32.50
|
| 279 |
+
2024-05-27,Harris,1.55
|
| 280 |
+
2024-05-28,Trump,32.50
|
| 281 |
+
2024-05-28,Harris,1.55
|
| 282 |
+
2024-05-29,Trump,33.50
|
| 283 |
+
2024-05-29,Harris,1.55
|
| 284 |
+
2024-05-30,Trump,33.50
|
| 285 |
+
2024-05-30,Harris,1.50
|
| 286 |
+
2024-05-31,Trump,31.50
|
| 287 |
+
2024-05-31,Harris,1.50
|
| 288 |
+
2024-06-01,Trump,31.50
|
| 289 |
+
2024-06-01,Harris,1.50
|
| 290 |
+
2024-06-02,Trump,31.50
|
| 291 |
+
2024-06-02,Harris,1.50
|
| 292 |
+
2024-06-03,Trump,31.50
|
| 293 |
+
2024-06-03,Harris,1.55
|
| 294 |
+
2024-06-04,Trump,32.50
|
| 295 |
+
2024-06-04,Harris,1.60
|
| 296 |
+
2024-06-05,Trump,32.50
|
| 297 |
+
2024-06-05,Harris,1.65
|
| 298 |
+
2024-06-06,Trump,33.50
|
| 299 |
+
2024-06-06,Harris,1.55
|
| 300 |
+
2024-06-07,Trump,33.50
|
| 301 |
+
2024-06-07,Harris,1.70
|
| 302 |
+
2024-06-08,Trump,33.50
|
| 303 |
+
2024-06-08,Harris,1.70
|
| 304 |
+
2024-06-09,Trump,33.50
|
| 305 |
+
2024-06-09,Harris,1.70
|
| 306 |
+
2024-06-10,Trump,33.50
|
| 307 |
+
2024-06-10,Harris,1.75
|
| 308 |
+
2024-06-11,Trump,33.50
|
| 309 |
+
2024-06-11,Harris,1.75
|
| 310 |
+
2024-06-12,Trump,33.50
|
| 311 |
+
2024-06-12,Harris,1.75
|
| 312 |
+
2024-06-13,Trump,33.50
|
| 313 |
+
2024-06-13,Harris,1.75
|
| 314 |
+
2024-06-14,Trump,34.50
|
| 315 |
+
2024-06-14,Harris,1.70
|
| 316 |
+
2024-06-15,Trump,35.50
|
| 317 |
+
2024-06-15,Harris,1.65
|
| 318 |
+
2024-06-16,Trump,34.50
|
| 319 |
+
2024-06-16,Harris,1.70
|
| 320 |
+
2024-06-17,Trump,34.50
|
| 321 |
+
2024-06-17,Harris,1.70
|
| 322 |
+
2024-06-18,Trump,35.50
|
| 323 |
+
2024-06-18,Harris,1.70
|
| 324 |
+
2024-06-19,Trump,34.50
|
| 325 |
+
2024-06-19,Harris,1.70
|
| 326 |
+
2024-06-20,Trump,35.00
|
| 327 |
+
2024-06-20,Harris,1.70
|
| 328 |
+
2024-06-21,Trump,35.50
|
| 329 |
+
2024-06-21,Harris,1.80
|
| 330 |
+
2024-06-22,Trump,35.50
|
| 331 |
+
2024-06-22,Harris,1.85
|
| 332 |
+
2024-06-23,Trump,35.50
|
| 333 |
+
2024-06-23,Harris,1.95
|
| 334 |
+
2024-06-24,Trump,35.50
|
| 335 |
+
2024-06-24,Harris,1.80
|
| 336 |
+
2024-06-25,Trump,35.50
|
| 337 |
+
2024-06-25,Harris,1.80
|
| 338 |
+
2024-06-26,Trump,35.50
|
| 339 |
+
2024-06-26,Harris,1.80
|
| 340 |
+
2024-06-27,Trump,39.00
|
| 341 |
+
2024-06-27,Harris,1.55
|
| 342 |
+
2024-06-28,Trump,40.50
|
| 343 |
+
2024-06-28,Harris,1.35
|
| 344 |
+
2024-06-29,Trump,42.50
|
| 345 |
+
2024-06-29,Harris,4.05
|
| 346 |
+
2024-06-30,Trump,42.50
|
| 347 |
+
2024-06-30,Harris,3.30
|
| 348 |
+
2024-07-01,Trump,40.50
|
| 349 |
+
2024-07-01,Harris,6.35
|
| 350 |
+
2024-07-02,Trump,41.00
|
| 351 |
+
2024-07-02,Harris,5.80
|
| 352 |
+
2024-07-03,Trump,41.00
|
| 353 |
+
2024-07-03,Harris,15.75
|
| 354 |
+
2024-07-04,Trump,39.50
|
| 355 |
+
2024-07-04,Harris,22.90
|
| 356 |
+
2024-07-05,Trump,39.50
|
| 357 |
+
2024-07-05,Harris,26.85
|
| 358 |
+
2024-07-06,Trump,39.50
|
| 359 |
+
2024-07-06,Harris,24.70
|
| 360 |
+
2024-07-07,Trump,39.50
|
| 361 |
+
2024-07-07,Harris,24.25
|
| 362 |
+
2024-07-08,Trump,41.50
|
| 363 |
+
2024-07-08,Harris,18.35
|
| 364 |
+
2024-07-09,Trump,44.50
|
| 365 |
+
2024-07-09,Harris,10.30
|
| 366 |
+
2024-07-10,Trump,44.00
|
| 367 |
+
2024-07-10,Harris,11.30
|
| 368 |
+
2024-07-11,Trump,44.50
|
| 369 |
+
2024-07-11,Harris,20.70
|
| 370 |
+
2024-07-12,Trump,42.50
|
| 371 |
+
2024-07-12,Harris,25.80
|
| 372 |
+
2024-07-13,Trump,42.50
|
| 373 |
+
2024-07-13,Harris,22.20
|
| 374 |
+
2024-07-14,Trump,52.50
|
| 375 |
+
2024-07-14,Harris,14.45
|
| 376 |
+
2024-07-15,Trump,55.50
|
| 377 |
+
2024-07-15,Harris,6.95
|
| 378 |
+
2024-07-16,Trump,55.50
|
| 379 |
+
2024-07-16,Harris,9.20
|
| 380 |
+
2024-07-17,Trump,55.50
|
| 381 |
+
2024-07-17,Harris,9.10
|
| 382 |
+
2024-07-18,Trump,53.50
|
| 383 |
+
2024-07-18,Harris,17.60
|
| 384 |
+
2024-07-19,Trump,43.50
|
| 385 |
+
2024-07-19,Harris,36.25
|
| 386 |
+
2024-07-20,Trump,49.50
|
| 387 |
+
2024-07-20,Harris,26.55
|
| 388 |
+
2024-07-21,Trump,50.50
|
| 389 |
+
2024-07-21,Harris,26.00
|
| 390 |
+
2024-07-22,Trump,48.50
|
| 391 |
+
2024-07-22,Harris,40.90
|
| 392 |
+
2024-07-23,Trump,45.50
|
| 393 |
+
2024-07-23,Harris,45.85
|
| 394 |
+
2024-07-24,Trump,36.50
|
| 395 |
+
2024-07-24,Harris,59.50
|
| 396 |
+
2024-07-25,Trump,37.50
|
| 397 |
+
2024-07-25,Harris,56.60
|
| 398 |
+
2024-07-26,Trump,36.50
|
| 399 |
+
2024-07-26,Harris,58.65
|
| 400 |
+
2024-07-27,Trump,37.50
|
| 401 |
+
2024-07-27,Harris,61.60
|
| 402 |
+
2024-07-28,Trump,35.50
|
| 403 |
+
2024-07-28,Harris,61.80
|
| 404 |
+
2024-07-29,Trump,35.50
|
| 405 |
+
2024-07-29,Harris,62.15
|
| 406 |
+
2024-07-30,Trump,35.50
|
| 407 |
+
2024-07-30,Harris,61.25
|
| 408 |
+
2024-07-31,Trump,37.50
|
| 409 |
+
2024-07-31,Harris,61.30
|
| 410 |
+
2024-08-01,Trump,37.50
|
| 411 |
+
2024-08-01,Harris,60.70
|
| 412 |
+
2024-08-02,Trump,29.50
|
| 413 |
+
2024-08-02,Harris,70.00
|
| 414 |
+
2024-08-03,Trump,27.50
|
| 415 |
+
2024-08-03,Harris,70.15
|
| 416 |
+
2024-08-04,Trump,29.50
|
| 417 |
+
2024-08-04,Harris,68.25
|
| 418 |
+
2024-08-05,Trump,28.50
|
| 419 |
+
2024-08-05,Harris,68.95
|
| 420 |
+
2024-08-06,Trump,30.00
|
| 421 |
+
2024-08-06,Harris,66.75
|
| 422 |
+
2024-08-07,Trump,28.50
|
| 423 |
+
2024-08-07,Harris,69.70
|
| 424 |
+
2024-08-08,Trump,27.50
|
| 425 |
+
2024-08-08,Harris,70.25
|
| 426 |
+
2024-08-09,Trump,27.50
|
| 427 |
+
2024-08-09,Harris,70.65
|
| 428 |
+
2024-08-10,Trump,23.50
|
| 429 |
+
2024-08-10,Harris,73.35
|
| 430 |
+
2024-08-11,Trump,23.50
|
| 431 |
+
2024-08-11,Harris,74.60
|
| 432 |
+
2024-08-12,Trump,22.50
|
| 433 |
+
2024-08-12,Harris,75.55
|
| 434 |
+
2024-08-13,Trump,21.50
|
| 435 |
+
2024-08-13,Harris,77.10
|
| 436 |
+
2024-08-14,Trump,21.50
|
| 437 |
+
2024-08-14,Harris,77.15
|
| 438 |
+
2024-08-15,Trump,21.50
|
| 439 |
+
2024-08-15,Harris,77.35
|
| 440 |
+
2024-08-16,Trump,21.50
|
| 441 |
+
2024-08-16,Harris,77.40
|
| 442 |
+
2024-08-17,Trump,23.50
|
| 443 |
+
2024-08-17,Harris,75.35
|
| 444 |
+
2024-08-18,Trump,27.50
|
| 445 |
+
2024-08-18,Harris,71.35
|
| 446 |
+
2024-08-19,Trump,26.00
|
| 447 |
+
2024-08-19,Harris,71.65
|
| 448 |
+
2024-08-20,Trump,26.50
|
| 449 |
+
2024-08-20,Harris,72.30
|
| 450 |
+
2024-08-21,Trump,28.50
|
| 451 |
+
2024-08-21,Harris,70.35
|
| 452 |
+
2024-08-22,Trump,30.50
|
| 453 |
+
2024-08-22,Harris,68.40
|
| 454 |
+
2024-08-23,Trump,30.00
|
| 455 |
+
2024-08-23,Harris,68.25
|
| 456 |
+
2024-08-24,Trump,27.00
|
| 457 |
+
2024-08-24,Harris,71.85
|
| 458 |
+
2024-08-25,Trump,25.00
|
| 459 |
+
2024-08-25,Harris,73.35
|
| 460 |
+
2024-08-26,Trump,25.50
|
| 461 |
+
2024-08-26,Harris,73.60
|
| 462 |
+
2024-08-27,Trump,25.50
|
| 463 |
+
2024-08-27,Harris,74.05
|
| 464 |
+
2024-08-28,Trump,25.50
|
| 465 |
+
2024-08-28,Harris,72.85
|
| 466 |
+
2024-08-29,Trump,26.50
|
| 467 |
+
2024-08-29,Harris,73.15
|
| 468 |
+
2024-08-30,Trump,26.50
|
| 469 |
+
2024-08-30,Harris,72.30
|
| 470 |
+
2024-08-31,Trump,26.50
|
| 471 |
+
2024-08-31,Harris,72.95
|
| 472 |
+
2024-09-01,Trump,26.50
|
| 473 |
+
2024-09-01,Harris,72.95
|
| 474 |
+
2024-09-02,Trump,27.50
|
| 475 |
+
2024-09-02,Harris,72.05
|
| 476 |
+
2024-09-03,Trump,27.50
|
| 477 |
+
2024-09-03,Harris,71.85
|
| 478 |
+
2024-09-04,Trump,27.50
|
| 479 |
+
2024-09-04,Harris,71.55
|
| 480 |
+
2024-09-05,Trump,27.50
|
| 481 |
+
2024-09-05,Harris,71.10
|
| 482 |
+
2024-09-06,Trump,29.50
|
| 483 |
+
2024-09-06,Harris,70.30
|
| 484 |
+
2024-09-07,Trump,27.50
|
| 485 |
+
2024-09-07,Harris,70.95
|
| 486 |
+
2024-09-08,Trump,29.00
|
| 487 |
+
2024-09-08,Harris,70.00
|
| 488 |
+
2024-09-09,Trump,30.50
|
| 489 |
+
2024-09-09,Harris,68.55
|
| 490 |
+
2024-09-10,Trump,30.50
|
| 491 |
+
2024-09-10,Harris,68.70
|
| 492 |
+
2024-09-11,Trump,28.50
|
| 493 |
+
2024-09-11,Harris,70.35
|
| 494 |
+
2024-09-12,Trump,25.50
|
| 495 |
+
2024-09-12,Harris,73.20
|
| 496 |
+
2024-09-13,Trump,24.50
|
| 497 |
+
2024-09-13,Harris,74.50
|
| 498 |
+
2024-09-14,Trump,23.50
|
| 499 |
+
2024-09-14,Harris,75.15
|
| 500 |
+
2024-09-15,Trump,22.50
|
| 501 |
+
2024-09-15,Harris,75.65
|
| 502 |
+
2024-09-16,Trump,24.50
|
| 503 |
+
2024-09-16,Harris,75.05
|
| 504 |
+
2024-09-17,Trump,23.50
|
| 505 |
+
2024-09-17,Harris,75.05
|
| 506 |
+
2024-09-18,Trump,22.50
|
| 507 |
+
2024-09-18,Harris,76.95
|
| 508 |
+
2024-09-19,Trump,21.50
|
| 509 |
+
2024-09-19,Harris,76.95
|
| 510 |
+
2024-09-20,Trump,21.50
|
| 511 |
+
2024-09-20,Harris,76.90
|
| 512 |
+
2024-09-21,Trump,22.50
|
| 513 |
+
2024-09-21,Harris,76.70
|
| 514 |
+
2024-09-22,Trump,21.50
|
| 515 |
+
2024-09-22,Harris,76.70
|
| 516 |
+
2024-09-23,Trump,21.50
|
| 517 |
+
2024-09-23,Harris,76.85
|
| 518 |
+
2024-09-24,Trump,23.50
|
| 519 |
+
2024-09-24,Harris,75.55
|
| 520 |
+
2024-09-25,Trump,23.60
|
| 521 |
+
2024-09-25,Harris,75.40
|
| 522 |
+
2024-09-26,Trump,25.25
|
| 523 |
+
2024-09-26,Harris,73.85
|
| 524 |
+
2024-09-27,Trump,25.85
|
| 525 |
+
2024-09-27,Harris,73.45
|
| 526 |
+
2024-09-28,Trump,24.95
|
| 527 |
+
2024-09-28,Harris,74.10
|
| 528 |
+
2024-09-29,Trump,23.85
|
| 529 |
+
2024-09-29,Harris,75.45
|
| 530 |
+
2024-09-30,Trump,24.20
|
| 531 |
+
2024-09-30,Harris,74.60
|
| 532 |
+
2024-10-01,Trump,23.70
|
| 533 |
+
2024-10-01,Harris,75.30
|
| 534 |
+
2024-10-02,Trump,23.70
|
| 535 |
+
2024-10-02,Harris,75.40
|
| 536 |
+
2024-10-03,Trump,23.55
|
| 537 |
+
2024-10-03,Harris,75.50
|
| 538 |
+
2024-10-04,Trump,24.15
|
| 539 |
+
2024-10-04,Harris,75.05
|
| 540 |
+
2024-10-05,Trump,24.70
|
| 541 |
+
2024-10-05,Harris,74.55
|
| 542 |
+
2024-10-06,Trump,25.15
|
| 543 |
+
2024-10-06,Harris,73.85
|
| 544 |
+
2024-10-07,Trump,25.75
|
| 545 |
+
2024-10-07,Harris,73.75
|
| 546 |
+
2024-10-08,Trump,25.65
|
| 547 |
+
2024-10-08,Harris,74.10
|
| 548 |
+
2024-10-09,Trump,26.80
|
| 549 |
+
2024-10-09,Harris,72.85
|
| 550 |
+
2024-10-10,Trump,27.20
|
| 551 |
+
2024-10-10,Harris,72.15
|
| 552 |
+
2024-10-11,Trump,28.10
|
| 553 |
+
2024-10-11,Harris,71.40
|
| 554 |
+
2024-10-12,Trump,27.65
|
| 555 |
+
2024-10-12,Harris,71.60
|
| 556 |
+
2024-10-13,Trump,27.15
|
| 557 |
+
2024-10-13,Harris,72.40
|
| 558 |
+
2024-10-14,Trump,28.50
|
| 559 |
+
2024-10-14,Harris,71.05
|
| 560 |
+
2024-10-15,Trump,32.90
|
| 561 |
+
2024-10-15,Harris,66.70
|
| 562 |
+
2024-10-16,Trump,34.05
|
| 563 |
+
2024-10-16,Harris,65.70
|
| 564 |
+
2024-10-17,Trump,36.05
|
| 565 |
+
2024-10-17,Harris,64.10
|
| 566 |
+
2024-10-18,Trump,34.10
|
| 567 |
+
2024-10-18,Harris,65.95
|
| 568 |
+
2024-10-19,Trump,31.35
|
| 569 |
+
2024-10-19,Harris,68.30
|
| 570 |
+
2024-10-20,Trump,31.15
|
| 571 |
+
2024-10-20,Harris,68.75
|
| 572 |
+
2024-10-21,Trump,33.35
|
| 573 |
+
2024-10-21,Harris,66.45
|
| 574 |
+
2024-10-22,Trump,38.20
|
| 575 |
+
2024-10-22,Harris,62.00
|
| 576 |
+
2024-10-23,Trump,40.70
|
| 577 |
+
2024-10-23,Harris,59.35
|
| 578 |
+
2024-10-24,Trump,38.20
|
| 579 |
+
2024-10-24,Harris,62.00
|
| 580 |
+
2024-10-25,Trump,40.15
|
| 581 |
+
2024-10-25,Harris,59.95
|
| 582 |
+
2024-10-26,Trump,39.55
|
| 583 |
+
2024-10-26,Harris,60.45
|
| 584 |
+
2024-10-27,Trump,41.15
|
| 585 |
+
2024-10-27,Harris,58.90
|
| 586 |
+
2024-10-28,Trump,41.90
|
| 587 |
+
2024-10-28,Harris,58.15
|
| 588 |
+
2024-10-29,Trump,42.95
|
| 589 |
+
2024-10-29,Harris,57.05
|
| 590 |
+
2024-10-30,Trump,41.85
|
| 591 |
+
2024-10-30,Harris,58.25
|
| 592 |
+
2024-10-31,Trump,38.75
|
| 593 |
+
2024-10-31,Harris,61.35
|
| 594 |
+
2024-11-01,Trump,37.30
|
| 595 |
+
2024-11-01,Harris,62.75
|
| 596 |
+
2024-11-02,Trump,31.60
|
| 597 |
+
2024-11-02,Harris,68.45
|
| 598 |
+
2024-11-03,Trump,25.85
|
| 599 |
+
2024-11-03,Harris,73.90
|
| 600 |
+
2024-11-04,Trump,25.65
|
| 601 |
+
2024-11-04,Harris,74.10
|
| 602 |
+
2024-11-05,Trump,27.40
|
| 603 |
+
2024-11-05,Harris,72.65
|
| 604 |
+
2024-11-06,Trump,28.55
|
| 605 |
+
2024-11-06,Harris,72.55
|
| 606 |
+
2024-11-07,Trump,99.95
|
| 607 |
+
2024-11-07,Harris,0.10
|
| 608 |
+
2024-11-08,Trump,99.75
|
| 609 |
+
2024-11-08,Harris,0.20
|
| 610 |
+
2024-11-09,Trump,99.35
|
| 611 |
+
2024-11-09,Harris,0.25
|
| 612 |
+
2024-11-10,Trump,99.50
|
| 613 |
+
2024-11-10,Harris,0.30
|
| 614 |
+
2024-11-11,Trump,99.70
|
| 615 |
+
2024-11-11,Harris,0.20
|
| 616 |
+
2024-11-12,Harris,0.05
|
data/usa-popularvote-poly-raw.json
ADDED
|
The diff for this file is too large to render.
See raw diff
|
|
|
data/usa-winner-market-timeseries.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,614 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
date,candidate,win_prob_pct
|
| 2 |
+
2024-01-05,Trump,50.00
|
| 3 |
+
2024-01-06,Trump,40.50
|
| 4 |
+
2024-01-06,Harris,3.15
|
| 5 |
+
2024-01-07,Trump,40.50
|
| 6 |
+
2024-01-07,Harris,2.70
|
| 7 |
+
2024-01-08,Trump,47.50
|
| 8 |
+
2024-01-08,Harris,2.40
|
| 9 |
+
2024-01-09,Trump,46.50
|
| 10 |
+
2024-01-09,Harris,2.30
|
| 11 |
+
2024-01-10,Trump,45.50
|
| 12 |
+
2024-01-10,Harris,1.75
|
| 13 |
+
2024-01-11,Trump,46.50
|
| 14 |
+
2024-01-11,Harris,1.65
|
| 15 |
+
2024-01-12,Trump,47.50
|
| 16 |
+
2024-01-12,Harris,1.50
|
| 17 |
+
2024-01-13,Trump,48.50
|
| 18 |
+
2024-01-13,Harris,1.40
|
| 19 |
+
2024-01-14,Trump,48.50
|
| 20 |
+
2024-01-14,Harris,1.35
|
| 21 |
+
2024-01-15,Trump,47.50
|
| 22 |
+
2024-01-15,Harris,1.20
|
| 23 |
+
2024-01-16,Trump,47.50
|
| 24 |
+
2024-01-16,Harris,1.20
|
| 25 |
+
2024-01-17,Trump,48.50
|
| 26 |
+
2024-01-17,Harris,1.45
|
| 27 |
+
2024-01-18,Trump,48.50
|
| 28 |
+
2024-01-18,Harris,1.45
|
| 29 |
+
2024-01-19,Trump,48.50
|
| 30 |
+
2024-01-19,Harris,1.40
|
| 31 |
+
2024-01-20,Trump,48.50
|
| 32 |
+
2024-01-20,Harris,1.60
|
| 33 |
+
2024-01-21,Trump,48.50
|
| 34 |
+
2024-01-21,Harris,1.65
|
| 35 |
+
2024-01-22,Trump,48.50
|
| 36 |
+
2024-01-22,Harris,1.70
|
| 37 |
+
2024-01-23,Trump,54.50
|
| 38 |
+
2024-01-23,Harris,1.20
|
| 39 |
+
2024-01-24,Trump,54.50
|
| 40 |
+
2024-01-24,Harris,0.95
|
| 41 |
+
2024-01-25,Trump,54.50
|
| 42 |
+
2024-01-25,Harris,0.95
|
| 43 |
+
2024-01-26,Trump,54.50
|
| 44 |
+
2024-01-26,Harris,0.90
|
| 45 |
+
2024-01-27,Trump,54.50
|
| 46 |
+
2024-01-27,Harris,0.90
|
| 47 |
+
2024-01-28,Trump,54.50
|
| 48 |
+
2024-01-28,Harris,0.90
|
| 49 |
+
2024-01-29,Trump,54.50
|
| 50 |
+
2024-01-29,Harris,0.85
|
| 51 |
+
2024-01-30,Trump,54.50
|
| 52 |
+
2024-01-30,Harris,0.85
|
| 53 |
+
2024-01-31,Trump,54.50
|
| 54 |
+
2024-01-31,Harris,0.75
|
| 55 |
+
2024-02-01,Trump,52.50
|
| 56 |
+
2024-02-01,Harris,0.75
|
| 57 |
+
2024-02-02,Trump,52.50
|
| 58 |
+
2024-02-02,Harris,0.65
|
| 59 |
+
2024-02-03,Trump,52.50
|
| 60 |
+
2024-02-03,Harris,0.75
|
| 61 |
+
2024-02-04,Trump,52.50
|
| 62 |
+
2024-02-04,Harris,0.75
|
| 63 |
+
2024-02-05,Trump,52.50
|
| 64 |
+
2024-02-05,Harris,0.75
|
| 65 |
+
2024-02-06,Trump,52.50
|
| 66 |
+
2024-02-06,Harris,0.75
|
| 67 |
+
2024-02-07,Trump,52.50
|
| 68 |
+
2024-02-07,Harris,0.75
|
| 69 |
+
2024-02-08,Trump,52.50
|
| 70 |
+
2024-02-08,Harris,0.75
|
| 71 |
+
2024-02-09,Trump,52.50
|
| 72 |
+
2024-02-09,Harris,1.10
|
| 73 |
+
2024-02-10,Trump,51.50
|
| 74 |
+
2024-02-10,Harris,1.70
|
| 75 |
+
2024-02-11,Trump,52.50
|
| 76 |
+
2024-02-11,Harris,1.60
|
| 77 |
+
2024-02-12,Trump,52.50
|
| 78 |
+
2024-02-12,Harris,1.70
|
| 79 |
+
2024-02-13,Trump,53.50
|
| 80 |
+
2024-02-13,Harris,1.80
|
| 81 |
+
2024-02-14,Trump,52.50
|
| 82 |
+
2024-02-14,Harris,2.10
|
| 83 |
+
2024-02-15,Trump,52.50
|
| 84 |
+
2024-02-15,Harris,2.00
|
| 85 |
+
2024-02-16,Trump,53.00
|
| 86 |
+
2024-02-16,Harris,2.05
|
| 87 |
+
2024-02-17,Trump,52.50
|
| 88 |
+
2024-02-17,Harris,2.15
|
| 89 |
+
2024-02-18,Trump,52.50
|
| 90 |
+
2024-02-18,Harris,1.85
|
| 91 |
+
2024-02-19,Trump,53.50
|
| 92 |
+
2024-02-19,Harris,1.85
|
| 93 |
+
2024-02-20,Trump,54.50
|
| 94 |
+
2024-02-20,Harris,1.80
|
| 95 |
+
2024-02-21,Trump,54.50
|
| 96 |
+
2024-02-21,Harris,1.65
|
| 97 |
+
2024-02-22,Trump,54.50
|
| 98 |
+
2024-02-22,Harris,1.55
|
| 99 |
+
2024-02-23,Trump,54.50
|
| 100 |
+
2024-02-23,Harris,1.45
|
| 101 |
+
2024-02-24,Trump,53.50
|
| 102 |
+
2024-02-24,Harris,1.50
|
| 103 |
+
2024-02-25,Trump,53.50
|
| 104 |
+
2024-02-25,Harris,1.55
|
| 105 |
+
2024-02-26,Trump,53.50
|
| 106 |
+
2024-02-26,Harris,1.55
|
| 107 |
+
2024-02-27,Trump,52.50
|
| 108 |
+
2024-02-27,Harris,1.65
|
| 109 |
+
2024-02-28,Trump,52.50
|
| 110 |
+
2024-02-28,Harris,1.65
|
| 111 |
+
2024-02-29,Trump,52.50
|
| 112 |
+
2024-02-29,Harris,1.65
|
| 113 |
+
2024-03-01,Trump,52.50
|
| 114 |
+
2024-03-01,Harris,1.65
|
| 115 |
+
2024-03-02,Trump,52.50
|
| 116 |
+
2024-03-02,Harris,1.75
|
| 117 |
+
2024-03-03,Trump,53.50
|
| 118 |
+
2024-03-03,Harris,1.75
|
| 119 |
+
2024-03-04,Trump,53.50
|
| 120 |
+
2024-03-04,Harris,1.90
|
| 121 |
+
2024-03-05,Trump,53.50
|
| 122 |
+
2024-03-05,Harris,1.90
|
| 123 |
+
2024-03-06,Trump,53.50
|
| 124 |
+
2024-03-06,Harris,1.65
|
| 125 |
+
2024-03-07,Trump,53.50
|
| 126 |
+
2024-03-07,Harris,1.75
|
| 127 |
+
2024-03-08,Trump,53.50
|
| 128 |
+
2024-03-08,Harris,1.75
|
| 129 |
+
2024-03-09,Trump,53.50
|
| 130 |
+
2024-03-09,Harris,1.90
|
| 131 |
+
2024-03-10,Trump,53.50
|
| 132 |
+
2024-03-10,Harris,1.95
|
| 133 |
+
2024-03-11,Trump,51.50
|
| 134 |
+
2024-03-11,Harris,1.95
|
| 135 |
+
2024-03-12,Trump,51.50
|
| 136 |
+
2024-03-12,Harris,1.95
|
| 137 |
+
2024-03-13,Trump,51.50
|
| 138 |
+
2024-03-13,Harris,1.80
|
| 139 |
+
2024-03-14,Trump,51.50
|
| 140 |
+
2024-03-14,Harris,1.70
|
| 141 |
+
2024-03-15,Trump,51.50
|
| 142 |
+
2024-03-15,Harris,1.65
|
| 143 |
+
2024-03-16,Trump,51.50
|
| 144 |
+
2024-03-16,Harris,1.65
|
| 145 |
+
2024-03-17,Trump,51.50
|
| 146 |
+
2024-03-17,Harris,1.65
|
| 147 |
+
2024-03-18,Trump,51.50
|
| 148 |
+
2024-03-18,Harris,1.80
|
| 149 |
+
2024-03-19,Trump,51.50
|
| 150 |
+
2024-03-19,Harris,1.80
|
| 151 |
+
2024-03-20,Trump,51.50
|
| 152 |
+
2024-03-20,Harris,1.65
|
| 153 |
+
2024-03-21,Trump,51.50
|
| 154 |
+
2024-03-21,Harris,1.65
|
| 155 |
+
2024-03-22,Trump,51.50
|
| 156 |
+
2024-03-22,Harris,1.55
|
| 157 |
+
2024-03-23,Trump,51.50
|
| 158 |
+
2024-03-23,Harris,1.55
|
| 159 |
+
2024-03-24,Trump,49.50
|
| 160 |
+
2024-03-24,Harris,1.55
|
| 161 |
+
2024-03-25,Trump,49.50
|
| 162 |
+
2024-03-25,Harris,1.50
|
| 163 |
+
2024-03-26,Trump,49.50
|
| 164 |
+
2024-03-26,Harris,1.50
|
| 165 |
+
2024-03-27,Trump,49.50
|
| 166 |
+
2024-03-27,Harris,1.60
|
| 167 |
+
2024-03-28,Trump,49.50
|
| 168 |
+
2024-03-28,Harris,1.60
|
| 169 |
+
2024-03-29,Trump,49.50
|
| 170 |
+
2024-03-29,Harris,1.60
|
| 171 |
+
2024-03-30,Trump,48.50
|
| 172 |
+
2024-03-30,Harris,1.60
|
| 173 |
+
2024-03-31,Trump,48.50
|
| 174 |
+
2024-03-31,Harris,1.65
|
| 175 |
+
2024-04-01,Trump,48.50
|
| 176 |
+
2024-04-01,Harris,1.65
|
| 177 |
+
2024-04-02,Trump,48.50
|
| 178 |
+
2024-04-02,Harris,1.65
|
| 179 |
+
2024-04-03,Trump,48.50
|
| 180 |
+
2024-04-03,Harris,1.45
|
| 181 |
+
2024-04-04,Trump,47.50
|
| 182 |
+
2024-04-04,Harris,1.75
|
| 183 |
+
2024-04-05,Trump,46.50
|
| 184 |
+
2024-04-05,Harris,1.65
|
| 185 |
+
2024-04-06,Trump,46.50
|
| 186 |
+
2024-04-06,Harris,1.50
|
| 187 |
+
2024-04-07,Trump,46.50
|
| 188 |
+
2024-04-07,Harris,1.50
|
| 189 |
+
2024-04-08,Trump,46.50
|
| 190 |
+
2024-04-08,Harris,1.55
|
| 191 |
+
2024-04-09,Trump,46.50
|
| 192 |
+
2024-04-09,Harris,1.55
|
| 193 |
+
2024-04-10,Trump,46.50
|
| 194 |
+
2024-04-10,Harris,1.55
|
| 195 |
+
2024-04-11,Trump,45.50
|
| 196 |
+
2024-04-11,Harris,1.40
|
| 197 |
+
2024-04-12,Trump,45.50
|
| 198 |
+
2024-04-12,Harris,1.45
|
| 199 |
+
2024-04-13,Trump,45.50
|
| 200 |
+
2024-04-13,Harris,1.45
|
| 201 |
+
2024-04-14,Trump,45.50
|
| 202 |
+
2024-04-14,Harris,1.35
|
| 203 |
+
2024-04-15,Trump,45.50
|
| 204 |
+
2024-04-15,Harris,1.35
|
| 205 |
+
2024-04-16,Trump,45.50
|
| 206 |
+
2024-04-16,Harris,1.35
|
| 207 |
+
2024-04-17,Trump,44.50
|
| 208 |
+
2024-04-17,Harris,1.15
|
| 209 |
+
2024-04-18,Trump,44.50
|
| 210 |
+
2024-04-18,Harris,0.95
|
| 211 |
+
2024-04-19,Trump,42.50
|
| 212 |
+
2024-04-19,Harris,1.10
|
| 213 |
+
2024-04-20,Trump,42.50
|
| 214 |
+
2024-04-20,Harris,1.05
|
| 215 |
+
2024-04-21,Trump,43.50
|
| 216 |
+
2024-04-21,Harris,1.00
|
| 217 |
+
2024-04-22,Trump,43.50
|
| 218 |
+
2024-04-22,Harris,1.00
|
| 219 |
+
2024-04-23,Trump,43.50
|
| 220 |
+
2024-04-23,Harris,1.00
|
| 221 |
+
2024-04-24,Trump,43.50
|
| 222 |
+
2024-04-24,Harris,1.00
|
| 223 |
+
2024-04-25,Trump,42.50
|
| 224 |
+
2024-04-25,Harris,1.00
|
| 225 |
+
2024-04-26,Trump,42.50
|
| 226 |
+
2024-04-26,Harris,1.00
|
| 227 |
+
2024-04-27,Trump,43.50
|
| 228 |
+
2024-04-27,Harris,1.15
|
| 229 |
+
2024-04-28,Trump,43.50
|
| 230 |
+
2024-04-28,Harris,1.15
|
| 231 |
+
2024-04-29,Trump,43.50
|
| 232 |
+
2024-04-29,Harris,1.20
|
| 233 |
+
2024-04-30,Trump,43.50
|
| 234 |
+
2024-04-30,Harris,1.15
|
| 235 |
+
2024-05-01,Trump,44.50
|
| 236 |
+
2024-05-01,Harris,1.20
|
| 237 |
+
2024-05-02,Trump,45.50
|
| 238 |
+
2024-05-02,Harris,1.15
|
| 239 |
+
2024-05-03,Trump,45.50
|
| 240 |
+
2024-05-03,Harris,1.15
|
| 241 |
+
2024-05-04,Trump,46.50
|
| 242 |
+
2024-05-04,Harris,1.15
|
| 243 |
+
2024-05-05,Trump,46.50
|
| 244 |
+
2024-05-05,Harris,1.15
|
| 245 |
+
2024-05-06,Trump,46.50
|
| 246 |
+
2024-05-06,Harris,1.15
|
| 247 |
+
2024-05-07,Trump,46.50
|
| 248 |
+
2024-05-07,Harris,1.15
|
| 249 |
+
2024-05-08,Trump,46.50
|
| 250 |
+
2024-05-08,Harris,1.20
|
| 251 |
+
2024-05-09,Trump,45.50
|
| 252 |
+
2024-05-09,Harris,1.10
|
| 253 |
+
2024-05-10,Trump,44.50
|
| 254 |
+
2024-05-10,Harris,1.15
|
| 255 |
+
2024-05-11,Trump,44.50
|
| 256 |
+
2024-05-11,Harris,1.15
|
| 257 |
+
2024-05-12,Trump,44.50
|
| 258 |
+
2024-05-12,Harris,1.15
|
| 259 |
+
2024-05-13,Trump,44.50
|
| 260 |
+
2024-05-13,Harris,1.15
|
| 261 |
+
2024-05-14,Trump,51.00
|
| 262 |
+
2024-05-14,Harris,1.25
|
| 263 |
+
2024-05-15,Trump,48.50
|
| 264 |
+
2024-05-15,Harris,1.30
|
| 265 |
+
2024-05-16,Trump,49.50
|
| 266 |
+
2024-05-16,Harris,0.95
|
| 267 |
+
2024-05-17,Trump,49.50
|
| 268 |
+
2024-05-17,Harris,1.10
|
| 269 |
+
2024-05-18,Trump,50.50
|
| 270 |
+
2024-05-18,Harris,1.10
|
| 271 |
+
2024-05-19,Trump,51.50
|
| 272 |
+
2024-05-19,Harris,1.15
|
| 273 |
+
2024-05-20,Trump,51.50
|
| 274 |
+
2024-05-20,Harris,1.15
|
| 275 |
+
2024-05-21,Trump,54.00
|
| 276 |
+
2024-05-21,Harris,1.10
|
| 277 |
+
2024-05-22,Trump,54.50
|
| 278 |
+
2024-05-22,Harris,1.00
|
| 279 |
+
2024-05-23,Trump,55.00
|
| 280 |
+
2024-05-23,Harris,1.00
|
| 281 |
+
2024-05-24,Trump,54.50
|
| 282 |
+
2024-05-24,Harris,0.95
|
| 283 |
+
2024-05-25,Trump,54.50
|
| 284 |
+
2024-05-25,Harris,1.10
|
| 285 |
+
2024-05-26,Trump,55.50
|
| 286 |
+
2024-05-26,Harris,1.15
|
| 287 |
+
2024-05-27,Trump,55.50
|
| 288 |
+
2024-05-27,Harris,1.05
|
| 289 |
+
2024-05-28,Trump,55.50
|
| 290 |
+
2024-05-28,Harris,1.15
|
| 291 |
+
2024-05-29,Trump,56.50
|
| 292 |
+
2024-05-29,Harris,1.00
|
| 293 |
+
2024-05-30,Trump,56.50
|
| 294 |
+
2024-05-30,Harris,1.00
|
| 295 |
+
2024-05-31,Trump,53.50
|
| 296 |
+
2024-05-31,Harris,1.00
|
| 297 |
+
2024-06-01,Trump,54.50
|
| 298 |
+
2024-06-01,Harris,1.25
|
| 299 |
+
2024-06-02,Trump,53.50
|
| 300 |
+
2024-06-02,Harris,1.25
|
| 301 |
+
2024-06-03,Trump,53.50
|
| 302 |
+
2024-06-03,Harris,1.35
|
| 303 |
+
2024-06-04,Trump,53.50
|
| 304 |
+
2024-06-04,Harris,1.40
|
| 305 |
+
2024-06-05,Trump,55.50
|
| 306 |
+
2024-06-05,Harris,1.45
|
| 307 |
+
2024-06-06,Trump,55.50
|
| 308 |
+
2024-06-06,Harris,1.80
|
| 309 |
+
2024-06-07,Trump,54.50
|
| 310 |
+
2024-06-07,Harris,1.45
|
| 311 |
+
2024-06-08,Trump,55.50
|
| 312 |
+
2024-06-08,Harris,1.45
|
| 313 |
+
2024-06-09,Trump,55.50
|
| 314 |
+
2024-06-09,Harris,1.45
|
| 315 |
+
2024-06-10,Trump,55.50
|
| 316 |
+
2024-06-10,Harris,1.55
|
| 317 |
+
2024-06-11,Trump,56.50
|
| 318 |
+
2024-06-11,Harris,1.55
|
| 319 |
+
2024-06-12,Trump,55.50
|
| 320 |
+
2024-06-12,Harris,1.35
|
| 321 |
+
2024-06-13,Trump,56.50
|
| 322 |
+
2024-06-13,Harris,1.15
|
| 323 |
+
2024-06-14,Trump,56.50
|
| 324 |
+
2024-06-14,Harris,1.40
|
| 325 |
+
2024-06-15,Trump,56.50
|
| 326 |
+
2024-06-15,Harris,1.40
|
| 327 |
+
2024-06-16,Trump,56.50
|
| 328 |
+
2024-06-16,Harris,1.45
|
| 329 |
+
2024-06-17,Trump,56.50
|
| 330 |
+
2024-06-17,Harris,1.50
|
| 331 |
+
2024-06-18,Trump,56.50
|
| 332 |
+
2024-06-18,Harris,1.50
|
| 333 |
+
2024-06-19,Trump,56.50
|
| 334 |
+
2024-06-19,Harris,1.45
|
| 335 |
+
2024-06-20,Trump,56.50
|
| 336 |
+
2024-06-20,Harris,1.60
|
| 337 |
+
2024-06-21,Trump,56.50
|
| 338 |
+
2024-06-21,Harris,1.55
|
| 339 |
+
2024-06-22,Trump,56.50
|
| 340 |
+
2024-06-22,Harris,2.05
|
| 341 |
+
2024-06-23,Trump,57.50
|
| 342 |
+
2024-06-23,Harris,1.45
|
| 343 |
+
2024-06-24,Trump,57.50
|
| 344 |
+
2024-06-24,Harris,1.45
|
| 345 |
+
2024-06-25,Trump,58.50
|
| 346 |
+
2024-06-25,Harris,1.40
|
| 347 |
+
2024-06-26,Trump,59.50
|
| 348 |
+
2024-06-26,Harris,1.30
|
| 349 |
+
2024-06-27,Trump,59.50
|
| 350 |
+
2024-06-27,Harris,1.40
|
| 351 |
+
2024-06-28,Trump,60.50
|
| 352 |
+
2024-06-28,Harris,1.10
|
| 353 |
+
2024-06-29,Trump,62.50
|
| 354 |
+
2024-06-29,Harris,3.45
|
| 355 |
+
2024-06-30,Trump,62.50
|
| 356 |
+
2024-06-30,Harris,2.85
|
| 357 |
+
2024-07-01,Trump,61.50
|
| 358 |
+
2024-07-01,Harris,5.15
|
| 359 |
+
2024-07-02,Trump,66.00
|
| 360 |
+
2024-07-02,Harris,4.45
|
| 361 |
+
2024-07-03,Trump,65.00
|
| 362 |
+
2024-07-03,Harris,9.65
|
| 363 |
+
2024-07-04,Trump,61.50
|
| 364 |
+
2024-07-04,Harris,15.50
|
| 365 |
+
2024-07-05,Trump,60.50
|
| 366 |
+
2024-07-05,Harris,20.10
|
| 367 |
+
2024-07-06,Trump,60.50
|
| 368 |
+
2024-07-06,Harris,15.95
|
| 369 |
+
2024-07-07,Trump,62.50
|
| 370 |
+
2024-07-07,Harris,13.85
|
| 371 |
+
2024-07-08,Trump,62.50
|
| 372 |
+
2024-07-08,Harris,13.05
|
| 373 |
+
2024-07-09,Trump,60.50
|
| 374 |
+
2024-07-09,Harris,6.05
|
| 375 |
+
2024-07-10,Trump,62.50
|
| 376 |
+
2024-07-10,Harris,9.05
|
| 377 |
+
2024-07-11,Trump,62.50
|
| 378 |
+
2024-07-11,Harris,15.45
|
| 379 |
+
2024-07-12,Trump,60.00
|
| 380 |
+
2024-07-12,Harris,18.60
|
| 381 |
+
2024-07-13,Trump,59.50
|
| 382 |
+
2024-07-13,Harris,14.55
|
| 383 |
+
2024-07-14,Trump,67.50
|
| 384 |
+
2024-07-14,Harris,8.60
|
| 385 |
+
2024-07-15,Trump,69.50
|
| 386 |
+
2024-07-15,Harris,5.60
|
| 387 |
+
2024-07-16,Trump,70.50
|
| 388 |
+
2024-07-16,Harris,6.15
|
| 389 |
+
2024-07-17,Trump,68.50
|
| 390 |
+
2024-07-17,Harris,5.85
|
| 391 |
+
2024-07-18,Trump,67.50
|
| 392 |
+
2024-07-18,Harris,13.45
|
| 393 |
+
2024-07-19,Trump,61.50
|
| 394 |
+
2024-07-19,Harris,22.60
|
| 395 |
+
2024-07-20,Trump,64.50
|
| 396 |
+
2024-07-20,Harris,18.55
|
| 397 |
+
2024-07-21,Trump,64.00
|
| 398 |
+
2024-07-21,Harris,18.25
|
| 399 |
+
2024-07-22,Trump,63.00
|
| 400 |
+
2024-07-22,Harris,29.15
|
| 401 |
+
2024-07-23,Trump,62.50
|
| 402 |
+
2024-07-23,Harris,32.35
|
| 403 |
+
2024-07-24,Trump,60.50
|
| 404 |
+
2024-07-24,Harris,37.05
|
| 405 |
+
2024-07-25,Trump,62.50
|
| 406 |
+
2024-07-25,Harris,32.15
|
| 407 |
+
2024-07-26,Trump,61.50
|
| 408 |
+
2024-07-26,Harris,34.70
|
| 409 |
+
2024-07-27,Trump,58.50
|
| 410 |
+
2024-07-27,Harris,39.75
|
| 411 |
+
2024-07-28,Trump,57.50
|
| 412 |
+
2024-07-28,Harris,39.40
|
| 413 |
+
2024-07-29,Trump,58.50
|
| 414 |
+
2024-07-29,Harris,39.30
|
| 415 |
+
2024-07-30,Trump,59.50
|
| 416 |
+
2024-07-30,Harris,38.00
|
| 417 |
+
2024-07-31,Trump,58.50
|
| 418 |
+
2024-07-31,Harris,38.55
|
| 419 |
+
2024-08-01,Trump,55.50
|
| 420 |
+
2024-08-01,Harris,41.70
|
| 421 |
+
2024-08-02,Trump,53.50
|
| 422 |
+
2024-08-02,Harris,44.15
|
| 423 |
+
2024-08-03,Trump,52.50
|
| 424 |
+
2024-08-03,Harris,43.95
|
| 425 |
+
2024-08-04,Trump,54.50
|
| 426 |
+
2024-08-04,Harris,43.15
|
| 427 |
+
2024-08-05,Trump,51.50
|
| 428 |
+
2024-08-05,Harris,44.60
|
| 429 |
+
2024-08-06,Trump,53.50
|
| 430 |
+
2024-08-06,Harris,43.70
|
| 431 |
+
2024-08-07,Trump,51.50
|
| 432 |
+
2024-08-07,Harris,45.85
|
| 433 |
+
2024-08-08,Trump,48.50
|
| 434 |
+
2024-08-08,Harris,49.15
|
| 435 |
+
2024-08-09,Trump,49.15
|
| 436 |
+
2024-08-09,Harris,48.75
|
| 437 |
+
2024-08-10,Trump,47.60
|
| 438 |
+
2024-08-10,Harris,49.15
|
| 439 |
+
2024-08-11,Trump,45.30
|
| 440 |
+
2024-08-11,Harris,51.50
|
| 441 |
+
2024-08-12,Trump,45.55
|
| 442 |
+
2024-08-12,Harris,51.55
|
| 443 |
+
2024-08-13,Trump,45.85
|
| 444 |
+
2024-08-13,Harris,51.20
|
| 445 |
+
2024-08-14,Trump,45.55
|
| 446 |
+
2024-08-14,Harris,52.45
|
| 447 |
+
2024-08-15,Trump,44.70
|
| 448 |
+
2024-08-15,Harris,53.35
|
| 449 |
+
2024-08-16,Trump,44.30
|
| 450 |
+
2024-08-16,Harris,53.90
|
| 451 |
+
2024-08-17,Trump,45.45
|
| 452 |
+
2024-08-17,Harris,52.25
|
| 453 |
+
2024-08-18,Trump,48.65
|
| 454 |
+
2024-08-18,Harris,49.75
|
| 455 |
+
2024-08-19,Trump,48.35
|
| 456 |
+
2024-08-19,Harris,49.35
|
| 457 |
+
2024-08-20,Trump,48.60
|
| 458 |
+
2024-08-20,Harris,49.60
|
| 459 |
+
2024-08-21,Trump,50.25
|
| 460 |
+
2024-08-21,Harris,48.10
|
| 461 |
+
2024-08-22,Trump,52.15
|
| 462 |
+
2024-08-22,Harris,46.80
|
| 463 |
+
2024-08-23,Trump,51.75
|
| 464 |
+
2024-08-23,Harris,47.15
|
| 465 |
+
2024-08-24,Trump,50.15
|
| 466 |
+
2024-08-24,Harris,48.40
|
| 467 |
+
2024-08-25,Trump,50.20
|
| 468 |
+
2024-08-25,Harris,48.65
|
| 469 |
+
2024-08-26,Trump,49.55
|
| 470 |
+
2024-08-26,Harris,49.60
|
| 471 |
+
2024-08-27,Trump,49.45
|
| 472 |
+
2024-08-27,Harris,49.45
|
| 473 |
+
2024-08-28,Trump,50.35
|
| 474 |
+
2024-08-28,Harris,48.35
|
| 475 |
+
2024-08-29,Trump,50.30
|
| 476 |
+
2024-08-29,Harris,48.40
|
| 477 |
+
2024-08-30,Trump,49.80
|
| 478 |
+
2024-08-30,Harris,48.30
|
| 479 |
+
2024-08-31,Trump,49.95
|
| 480 |
+
2024-08-31,Harris,48.55
|
| 481 |
+
2024-09-01,Trump,50.25
|
| 482 |
+
2024-09-01,Harris,48.25
|
| 483 |
+
2024-09-02,Trump,50.85
|
| 484 |
+
2024-09-02,Harris,47.75
|
| 485 |
+
2024-09-03,Trump,51.75
|
| 486 |
+
2024-09-03,Harris,47.05
|
| 487 |
+
2024-09-04,Trump,51.15
|
| 488 |
+
2024-09-04,Harris,47.65
|
| 489 |
+
2024-09-05,Trump,52.95
|
| 490 |
+
2024-09-05,Harris,46.00
|
| 491 |
+
2024-09-06,Trump,52.80
|
| 492 |
+
2024-09-06,Harris,45.90
|
| 493 |
+
2024-09-07,Trump,50.55
|
| 494 |
+
2024-09-07,Harris,47.75
|
| 495 |
+
2024-09-08,Trump,50.00
|
| 496 |
+
2024-09-08,Harris,47.55
|
| 497 |
+
2024-09-09,Trump,51.30
|
| 498 |
+
2024-09-09,Harris,46.40
|
| 499 |
+
2024-09-10,Trump,52.25
|
| 500 |
+
2024-09-10,Harris,46.05
|
| 501 |
+
2024-09-11,Trump,51.95
|
| 502 |
+
2024-09-11,Harris,46.40
|
| 503 |
+
2024-09-12,Trump,49.60
|
| 504 |
+
2024-09-12,Harris,49.45
|
| 505 |
+
2024-09-13,Trump,49.10
|
| 506 |
+
2024-09-13,Harris,49.85
|
| 507 |
+
2024-09-14,Trump,49.10
|
| 508 |
+
2024-09-14,Harris,50.05
|
| 509 |
+
2024-09-15,Trump,48.85
|
| 510 |
+
2024-09-15,Harris,50.35
|
| 511 |
+
2024-09-16,Trump,49.40
|
| 512 |
+
2024-09-16,Harris,49.60
|
| 513 |
+
2024-09-17,Trump,49.45
|
| 514 |
+
2024-09-17,Harris,49.25
|
| 515 |
+
2024-09-18,Trump,48.05
|
| 516 |
+
2024-09-18,Harris,50.05
|
| 517 |
+
2024-09-19,Trump,46.75
|
| 518 |
+
2024-09-19,Harris,51.75
|
| 519 |
+
2024-09-20,Trump,47.15
|
| 520 |
+
2024-09-20,Harris,51.25
|
| 521 |
+
2024-09-21,Trump,47.90
|
| 522 |
+
2024-09-21,Harris,51.00
|
| 523 |
+
2024-09-22,Trump,47.55
|
| 524 |
+
2024-09-22,Harris,51.20
|
| 525 |
+
2024-09-23,Trump,46.95
|
| 526 |
+
2024-09-23,Harris,52.00
|
| 527 |
+
2024-09-24,Trump,48.25
|
| 528 |
+
2024-09-24,Harris,50.50
|
| 529 |
+
2024-09-25,Trump,48.10
|
| 530 |
+
2024-09-25,Harris,50.30
|
| 531 |
+
2024-09-26,Trump,48.85
|
| 532 |
+
2024-09-26,Harris,50.15
|
| 533 |
+
2024-09-27,Trump,48.95
|
| 534 |
+
2024-09-27,Harris,50.20
|
| 535 |
+
2024-09-28,Trump,48.55
|
| 536 |
+
2024-09-28,Harris,50.65
|
| 537 |
+
2024-09-29,Trump,48.25
|
| 538 |
+
2024-09-29,Harris,50.60
|
| 539 |
+
2024-09-30,Trump,49.05
|
| 540 |
+
2024-09-30,Harris,50.25
|
| 541 |
+
2024-10-01,Trump,48.85
|
| 542 |
+
2024-10-01,Harris,49.65
|
| 543 |
+
2024-10-02,Trump,48.25
|
| 544 |
+
2024-10-02,Harris,49.85
|
| 545 |
+
2024-10-03,Trump,49.25
|
| 546 |
+
2024-10-03,Harris,49.45
|
| 547 |
+
2024-10-04,Trump,49.65
|
| 548 |
+
2024-10-04,Harris,49.55
|
| 549 |
+
2024-10-05,Trump,49.75
|
| 550 |
+
2024-10-05,Harris,49.25
|
| 551 |
+
2024-10-06,Trump,50.15
|
| 552 |
+
2024-10-06,Harris,48.95
|
| 553 |
+
2024-10-07,Trump,50.75
|
| 554 |
+
2024-10-07,Harris,48.35
|
| 555 |
+
2024-10-08,Trump,53.95
|
| 556 |
+
2024-10-08,Harris,45.75
|
| 557 |
+
2024-10-09,Trump,52.90
|
| 558 |
+
2024-10-09,Harris,46.55
|
| 559 |
+
2024-10-10,Trump,53.35
|
| 560 |
+
2024-10-10,Harris,46.05
|
| 561 |
+
2024-10-11,Trump,55.45
|
| 562 |
+
2024-10-11,Harris,43.95
|
| 563 |
+
2024-10-12,Trump,54.05
|
| 564 |
+
2024-10-12,Harris,45.50
|
| 565 |
+
2024-10-13,Trump,54.95
|
| 566 |
+
2024-10-13,Harris,44.70
|
| 567 |
+
2024-10-14,Trump,53.95
|
| 568 |
+
2024-10-14,Harris,45.45
|
| 569 |
+
2024-10-15,Trump,55.05
|
| 570 |
+
2024-10-15,Harris,44.35
|
| 571 |
+
2024-10-16,Trump,57.65
|
| 572 |
+
2024-10-16,Harris,42.20
|
| 573 |
+
2024-10-17,Trump,58.55
|
| 574 |
+
2024-10-17,Harris,41.05
|
| 575 |
+
2024-10-18,Trump,61.85
|
| 576 |
+
2024-10-18,Harris,38.15
|
| 577 |
+
2024-10-19,Trump,59.95
|
| 578 |
+
2024-10-19,Harris,40.05
|
| 579 |
+
2024-10-20,Trump,60.05
|
| 580 |
+
2024-10-20,Harris,39.85
|
| 581 |
+
2024-10-21,Trump,60.65
|
| 582 |
+
2024-10-21,Harris,39.25
|
| 583 |
+
2024-10-22,Trump,64.90
|
| 584 |
+
2024-10-22,Harris,35.15
|
| 585 |
+
2024-10-23,Trump,64.75
|
| 586 |
+
2024-10-23,Harris,35.15
|
| 587 |
+
2024-10-24,Trump,61.55
|
| 588 |
+
2024-10-24,Harris,38.45
|
| 589 |
+
2024-10-25,Trump,64.10
|
| 590 |
+
2024-10-25,Harris,36.05
|
| 591 |
+
2024-10-26,Trump,63.85
|
| 592 |
+
2024-10-26,Harris,36.05
|
| 593 |
+
2024-10-27,Trump,64.55
|
| 594 |
+
2024-10-27,Harris,35.30
|
| 595 |
+
2024-10-28,Trump,64.95
|
| 596 |
+
2024-10-28,Harris,34.85
|
| 597 |
+
2024-10-29,Trump,65.85
|
| 598 |
+
2024-10-29,Harris,34.15
|
| 599 |
+
2024-10-30,Trump,66.55
|
| 600 |
+
2024-10-30,Harris,33.45
|
| 601 |
+
2024-10-31,Trump,64.75
|
| 602 |
+
2024-10-31,Harris,35.20
|
| 603 |
+
2024-11-01,Trump,63.25
|
| 604 |
+
2024-11-01,Harris,36.80
|
| 605 |
+
2024-11-02,Trump,58.25
|
| 606 |
+
2024-11-02,Harris,41.85
|
| 607 |
+
2024-11-03,Trump,55.85
|
| 608 |
+
2024-11-03,Harris,44.15
|
| 609 |
+
2024-11-04,Trump,56.35
|
| 610 |
+
2024-11-04,Harris,43.50
|
| 611 |
+
2024-11-05,Trump,58.55
|
| 612 |
+
2024-11-05,Harris,41.45
|
| 613 |
+
2024-11-06,Trump,58.00
|
| 614 |
+
2024-11-06,Harris,42.15
|
data/usa-winner-poly-raw.json
ADDED
|
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|
|
|
polls/usa-national-polls.csv
ADDED
|
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|
|
|
press/usa-2024-press-timeline.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
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| 1 |
+
date,outlet,headline,theme,axis,tier,primary_source,url,wayback_url
|
| 2 |
+
2024-10-18,Fortune,"A handful of pro-Trump bettors have dumped more than $25 million into Polymarket, swaying election odds in his favor",market_poll_divergence,market×poll,anchor,Fortune,https://fortune.com/2024/10/18/presidential-election-odds-pro-trump-bettors-polymarket-political-polls-harris/,https://web.archive.org/web/20241129060301/https://fortune.com/2024/10/18/presidential-election-odds-pro-trump-bettors-polymarket-political-polls-harris/
|
| 3 |
+
2024-10-21,Al Jazeera,"Early voting in full swing in US election, Harris and Trump tied in polls",poll_near_tie,poll,secondary,Al Jazeera,https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/21/early-voting-in-full-swing-in-us-election-harris-and-trump-tied-in-polls,https://web.archive.org/web/20241216020649/https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/21/early-voting-in-full-swing-in-us-election-harris-and-trump-tied-in-polls
|
| 4 |
+
2024-10-24,NBC News,French trader bet over $28 million on Trump election win using 4 Polymarket accounts,market_conviction_whale,market,anchor,Wall Street Journal (original),https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/french-trader-bet-28-million-trump-election-win-4-polymarket-accounts-rcna177106,https://web.archive.org/web/20241108234051/https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/french-trader-bet-28-million-trump-election-win-4-polymarket-accounts-rcna177106
|
| 5 |
+
2024-11-06,NPR,"Donald Trump wins the White House, according to AP race call",result_validator,result,anchor,Associated Press (race call),https://www.npr.org/2024/11/06/nx-s1-5173680/donald-trump-wins-the-white-house-according-to-ap-race-call,https://web.archive.org/web/20241127010218/https://www.npr.org/2024/11/06/nx-s1-5173680/donald-trump-wins-the-white-house-according-to-ap-race-call
|
| 6 |
+
2024-11-06,PBS NewsHour,AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania,result_validator,result,anchor,Associated Press (race call),https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ap-race-call-donald-trump-wins-pennsylvania,https://web.archive.org/web/20241216191106/https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ap-race-call-donald-trump-wins-pennsylvania
|
| 7 |
+
2024-11-08,CNN Business,How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t,market_vindicated,market×poll,anchor,CNN,https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/business/polymarket-election-trump-nightcap,https://web.archive.org/web/20241213142942/https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/business/polymarket-election-trump-nightcap/
|
| 8 |
+
2024-11-30,NBC News,What the 2024 polls got right — and what they got wrong,poll_accuracy_postmortem,poll,anchor,NBC News,https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/2024-polls-got-right-got-wrong-trump-harris-rcna181105,https://web.archive.org/web/20241213221827/https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/2024-polls-got-right-got-wrong-trump-harris-rcna181105
|
press/usa-2024-press-timeline.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,92 @@
|
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|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"case": "USA 2024 Presidential Election",
|
| 3 |
+
"description": "Curated, Wayback-archived press coverage cross-referencing the market×poll divergence as it unfolded. Anchors map to AFOS axes: poll near-tie, market conviction (winner market favored Trump), result (AP race call), and honest post-mortem.",
|
| 4 |
+
"method": "Each anchor verified live (HTTP 200) and preserved via the Internet Archive Wayback Machine for permanent citation. Prestige primary sources (AP race call, WSJ Théo original) attributed even where linked via an accessible carrier (NPR/PBS/NBC).",
|
| 5 |
+
"count": 7,
|
| 6 |
+
"items": [
|
| 7 |
+
{
|
| 8 |
+
"date": "2024-10-18",
|
| 9 |
+
"outlet": "Fortune",
|
| 10 |
+
"headline": "A handful of pro-Trump bettors have dumped more than $25 million into Polymarket, swaying election odds in his favor",
|
| 11 |
+
"theme": "market_poll_divergence",
|
| 12 |
+
"axis": "market×poll",
|
| 13 |
+
"tier": "anchor",
|
| 14 |
+
"primary_source": "Fortune",
|
| 15 |
+
"url": "https://fortune.com/2024/10/18/presidential-election-odds-pro-trump-bettors-polymarket-political-polls-harris/",
|
| 16 |
+
"wayback": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241129060301/https://fortune.com/2024/10/18/presidential-election-odds-pro-trump-bettors-polymarket-political-polls-harris/",
|
| 17 |
+
"note": "A imprensa documenta o sinal AFOS em tempo real: a Polymarket precifica Trump enquanto as pesquisas dão empate."
|
| 18 |
+
},
|
| 19 |
+
{
|
| 20 |
+
"date": "2024-10-21",
|
| 21 |
+
"outlet": "Al Jazeera",
|
| 22 |
+
"headline": "Early voting in full swing in US election, Harris and Trump tied in polls",
|
| 23 |
+
"theme": "poll_near_tie",
|
| 24 |
+
"axis": "poll",
|
| 25 |
+
"tier": "secondary",
|
| 26 |
+
"primary_source": "Al Jazeera",
|
| 27 |
+
"url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/21/early-voting-in-full-swing-in-us-election-harris-and-trump-tied-in-polls",
|
| 28 |
+
"wayback": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241216020649/https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/21/early-voting-in-full-swing-in-us-election-harris-and-trump-tied-in-polls",
|
| 29 |
+
"note": "O eixo das pesquisas: empate técnico nacional na reta final."
|
| 30 |
+
},
|
| 31 |
+
{
|
| 32 |
+
"date": "2024-10-24",
|
| 33 |
+
"outlet": "NBC News",
|
| 34 |
+
"headline": "French trader bet over $28 million on Trump election win using 4 Polymarket accounts",
|
| 35 |
+
"theme": "market_conviction_whale",
|
| 36 |
+
"axis": "market",
|
| 37 |
+
"tier": "anchor",
|
| 38 |
+
"primary_source": "Wall Street Journal (original)",
|
| 39 |
+
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/french-trader-bet-28-million-trump-election-win-4-polymarket-accounts-rcna177106",
|
| 40 |
+
"wayback": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241108234051/https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/french-trader-bet-28-million-trump-election-win-4-polymarket-accounts-rcna177106",
|
| 41 |
+
"note": "O apostador \"Théo\" move o mercado de vencedor; debate sobre convicção do mercado vs. ruído."
|
| 42 |
+
},
|
| 43 |
+
{
|
| 44 |
+
"date": "2024-11-06",
|
| 45 |
+
"outlet": "NPR",
|
| 46 |
+
"headline": "Donald Trump wins the White House, according to AP race call",
|
| 47 |
+
"theme": "result_validator",
|
| 48 |
+
"axis": "result",
|
| 49 |
+
"tier": "anchor",
|
| 50 |
+
"primary_source": "Associated Press (race call)",
|
| 51 |
+
"url": "https://www.npr.org/2024/11/06/nx-s1-5173680/donald-trump-wins-the-white-house-according-to-ap-race-call",
|
| 52 |
+
"wayback": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241127010218/https://www.npr.org/2024/11/06/nx-s1-5173680/donald-trump-wins-the-white-house-according-to-ap-race-call",
|
| 53 |
+
"note": "O validador: a AP declara Trump vencedor. Confirma o mercado de colégio, refuta o de voto popular."
|
| 54 |
+
},
|
| 55 |
+
{
|
| 56 |
+
"date": "2024-11-06",
|
| 57 |
+
"outlet": "PBS NewsHour",
|
| 58 |
+
"headline": "AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania",
|
| 59 |
+
"theme": "result_validator",
|
| 60 |
+
"axis": "result",
|
| 61 |
+
"tier": "anchor",
|
| 62 |
+
"primary_source": "Associated Press (race call)",
|
| 63 |
+
"url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ap-race-call-donald-trump-wins-pennsylvania",
|
| 64 |
+
"wayback": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241216191106/https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ap-race-call-donald-trump-wins-pennsylvania",
|
| 65 |
+
"note": "A chamada decisiva da Pensilvânia, que selou o colégio eleitoral."
|
| 66 |
+
},
|
| 67 |
+
{
|
| 68 |
+
"date": "2024-11-08",
|
| 69 |
+
"outlet": "CNN Business",
|
| 70 |
+
"headline": "How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t",
|
| 71 |
+
"theme": "market_vindicated",
|
| 72 |
+
"axis": "market×poll",
|
| 73 |
+
"tier": "anchor",
|
| 74 |
+
"primary_source": "CNN",
|
| 75 |
+
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/business/polymarket-election-trump-nightcap",
|
| 76 |
+
"wayback": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241213142942/https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/business/polymarket-election-trump-nightcap/",
|
| 77 |
+
"note": "Pós-resultado: o mercado de colégio acertou onde a pesquisa via empate. (Mas o de voto popular errou, ver contraponto.)"
|
| 78 |
+
},
|
| 79 |
+
{
|
| 80 |
+
"date": "2024-11-30",
|
| 81 |
+
"outlet": "NBC News",
|
| 82 |
+
"headline": "What the 2024 polls got right — and what they got wrong",
|
| 83 |
+
"theme": "poll_accuracy_postmortem",
|
| 84 |
+
"axis": "poll",
|
| 85 |
+
"tier": "anchor",
|
| 86 |
+
"primary_source": "NBC News",
|
| 87 |
+
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/2024-polls-got-right-got-wrong-trump-harris-rcna181105",
|
| 88 |
+
"wayback": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241213221827/https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/2024-polls-got-right-got-wrong-trump-harris-rcna181105",
|
| 89 |
+
"note": "Honestidade: as pesquisas de 2024 ficaram perto (empate, Trump +1,5 no limite do erro). Não foi \"pesquisa furada\"."
|
| 90 |
+
}
|
| 91 |
+
]
|
| 92 |
+
}
|