DATA_DICTIONARY.md

# Data Dictionary — AFOS USA 2024 Electoral Divergence

> 🌐 **EN** — Data dictionary for the AFOS USA 2024 electoral-divergence dataset (polls × prediction markets × press). · **PT** — Dicionário de dados do dataset AFOS EUA 2024 (pesquisas × mercados de previsão × imprensa). · **ES** — Diccionario de datos del dataset AFOS EE. UU. 2024 (encuestas × mercados de predicción × prensa).
> Column names and definitions below are kept in **English** (CSV/academic standard). · Os nomes e definições de coluna seguem em **inglês** (padrão dos CSVs). · Los nombres y definiciones se mantienen en **inglés**.

Poll figures trace to a named pollster's published release, compiled from **FiveThirtyEight's** public 2024 president-poll database (Wayback snapshot of 4 Nov 2024). Market odds come from public Polymarket markets; press anchors are public articles archived in the Wayback Machine. Nothing is imputed or smoothed; missing values are left **blank**.

## `polls/usa-national-polls.csv` (long format)

One row per candidate per poll. National general-election polls only (state = blank, stage = general, cycle = 2024), Harris & Trump. 3,691 rows.

| Column | Type | Notes |
|--------|------|-------|
| `poll_id` | integer | FiveThirtyEight poll identifier. |
| `pollster` | string | Polling firm (e.g. "Siena/NYT", "Marquette Law School", "Emerson"). |
| `end_date` | date | End of fieldwork (`YYYY-MM-DD`). |
| `sample_size` | integer | Sample size. |
| `population` | string | Sampled population: `lv` (likely voters), `rv` (registered voters), `a` (all adults). |
| `numeric_grade` | number | FiveThirtyEight pollster quality rating (0–3 scale), where published. |
| `methodology` | string | Survey mode (e.g. "Online Panel", "Live Phone", "IVR/Online"). |
| `candidate` | string | `Harris` or `Trump`. |
| `pct` | number | National voting intention for that candidate, %. |
| `source_url` | string | Primary source URL for the poll, as recorded by FiveThirtyEight. |

## `data/usa-winner-market-timeseries.csv` — PRIMARY AXIS (electoral college)

Daily Polymarket win-probability from the **"Presidential Election Winner 2024"** market (who becomes president; total volume ≈ US$ 3.7 bn — the largest election market in history). 613 rows.

| Column | Type | Notes |
|--------|------|-------|
| `date` | date | `YYYY-MM-DD` (daily fidelity). |
| `candidate` | string | `Trump` or `Harris`. |
| `win_prob_pct` | number | Implied probability of **winning the presidency**, % (0–100). |

## `data/usa-popularvote-market-timeseries.csv` — COUNTERPOINT (popular vote)

Daily Polymarket win-probability from the **"Popular Vote Winner 2024"** market (who wins more popular votes; total volume ≈ US$ 628 M). This is the market that favored Harris and **erred**. 615 rows. Same columns as the winner series; `win_prob_pct` = implied probability of **winning the popular vote**.

## `data/usa-poll-aggregate-timeseries.csv`

Trailing 7-day simple average of national poll vote share. 1,322 rows.

| Column | Type | Notes |
|--------|------|-------|
| `date` | date | `YYYY-MM-DD`. |
| `candidate` | string | `Trump` or `Harris`. |
| `poll_vote_share_pct_7dma` | number | 7-day trailing average of national vote-share polls ending on or before `date`, %. |

## `data/usa-divergence-timeseries.csv`

Market × poll divergence for the Harris–Trump head-to-head period (after Biden withdrew, 21 Jul 2024). 218 rows. **Axis = the winner (electoral-college) market.**

| Column | Type | Notes |
|--------|------|-------|
| `date` | date | `YYYY-MM-DD` (market date). |
| `candidate` | string | `Trump` or `Harris`. |
| `market_win_prob_pct` | number | Winner-market implied probability of **winning the presidency**, %. |
| `poll_vote_share_pct` | number | National poll **vote share** (7-day trailing average), %. |
| `naive_gap_pp` | number | `market_win_prob_pct − poll_vote_share_pct`, in percentage points. **Different units** (probability vs share): reported raw, **not scale-reconciled**. The sign and trajectory are the signal, not the magnitude. |

## `press/usa-2024-press-timeline.csv`

Curated, Wayback-archived press anchors cross-referencing the market×poll divergence. 7 rows.

| Column | Type | Notes |
|--------|------|-------|
| `date` | date | Article publication date (`YYYY-MM-DD`). |
| `outlet` | string | Publishing outlet (Fortune, Al Jazeera, NBC News, NPR, PBS NewsHour, CNN). |
| `headline` | string | Exact article headline. |
| `theme` | string | `market_poll_divergence` · `poll_near_tie` · `market_conviction_whale` · `result_validator` · `market_vindicated` · `poll_accuracy_postmortem`. |
| `axis` | string | Which AFOS axis the anchor maps to (`market`, `poll`, `market×poll`, `result`). |
| `tier` | string | `anchor` (core) or `secondary`. |
| `primary_source` | string | Underlying primary source where the carrier differs (e.g. "Associated Press (race call)", "Wall Street Journal (original)"). |
| `url` | string | Live article URL (verified HTTP 200). |
| `wayback_url` | string | Internet Archive Wayback Machine snapshot (permanent citation). |

## `data/usa-case-summary.json`

Machine-readable summary of the validated case: result (electoral college + popular vote), both markets with eve-of-vote probabilities and verdict, final poll average, and the honesty note (two markets disagreed; the validator is the real result).

## Raw provenance

`data/usa-winner-poly-raw.json` and `data/usa-popularvote-poly-raw.json` — raw Polymarket payloads (event metadata + per-candidate daily price histories) for both markets, kept verbatim for provenance.

## `data/usa-structural-context.csv`

Structural country context from the **World Bank**, complementary to the divergence data: it frames the country, it does **not** predict the electoral outcome. Long/tidy format, one row per indicator, latest available year per indicator.

| Column | Type | Notes |
|--------|------|-------|
| `category` | string | `governance`, `economy`, or `education`. |
| `indicator` | string | Machine code (e.g. `political_stability`, `gdp_usd`, `expected_years_schooling`). |
| `label` | string | Human-readable indicator name (English). |
| `value` | number | Governance on a 0-100 scale; economy in US$ / %; education in % of GDP or years. |
| `unit` | string | `index_0_100`, `USD`, `percent`, or `years`. |
| `year` | integer | Reference year of the value (latest available). |
| `source` | string | World Bank WGI (governance, via Data360) or WDI (economy & education). |
| `iso3` | string | ISO 3166 alpha-3 country code. |

Both sources are open-licensed (CC BY 4.0) and keyless. Governance = Worldwide Governance Indicators; economy & education = World Development Indicators.