--- license: cc-by-4.0 language: - es - en - pt pretty_name: "AFOS — Peru 2026 Electoral Divergence" tags: - elections - peru - prediction-markets - polls - political-risk - divergence - open-data - latin-america --- # AFOS — Peru 2026 Electoral Divergence Dataset 🌐 **[English](#english) · [Español](#español) · [Português](#português)** Open dataset cross-referencing **opinion polls × prediction markets** for Peru's **2026 general election** (first round 12 April 2026; runoff 7 June 2026, Keiko Fujimori vs Roberto Sánchez), built in the same spirit as the AFOS Brazil 2026 dataset: sources are reported side by side with **explicit divergence**, not blended into a single average. Maintained by **[AFOS Analytics](https://afos-analytics.com)**. This is part of AFOS's expansion of its electoral-divergence method beyond Brazil. *No personal data — only public electoral information.* --- ## English **Contents (start with the polls):** | Path | Rows | Content | |------|------|---------| | `polls/peru-first-round-polls.csv` | 327 | First-round voting intention, **long format** (one row per candidate × poll), **all 14 candidates**, 36 polls, Jan→Apr 2026. | | `polls/peru-runoff-polls.csv` | 16 | Runoff head-to-head (Fujimori vs Sánchez), Apr→Jun 2026. | | `polls/peru-polls.json` | — | Full structured polls (first round + runoff) with methodology. | | `data/peru-market-odds-timeseries.csv` | 2,490 | Daily Polymarket win-probability per candidate (16 candidates, Dec 2025→Apr 2026) from the "Peru Presidential Election Winner" market. | | `data/peru-divergence-timeseries.csv` | 324 | **Market × poll divergence** per candidate — each first-round poll joined to the candidate's market odds on its date. | | `data/peru-poly-raw.json` | — | Raw Polymarket payload (event + per-candidate price histories), kept for provenance. | Market data fetched from Polymarket's gamma-api + clob (US-resolving function). Divergence covers the **first round**; no clean head-to-head runoff win-probability market exists to join the runoff polls. ### ⚖️ Notable divergences (why divergence beats the average) The point of this dataset is the **gap** between what the market prices (probability of *winning*) and what polls measure (first-round *vote share*). Averaging the two would erase the signal. From the final pre-election poll (Ipsos Perú, 6 Apr 2026): - **Carlos Álvarez — poll 8% × market 31.6% (+23.6pp).** The market priced this outsider's *win probability* at nearly a third while polls had him at 8% — and the bet **failed**: Álvarez did not reach the runoff. A vivid case where the market diverged from polls *and was wrong*. - **Keiko Fujimori — poll 16% × market 22% (+6pp).** Market and polls agreed she led; the market gave her a modest *win* premium — and she topped the first round. - **Rafael López Aliaga — poll 7% × market 15% (+8pp):** market doubled his win-odds vs his vote share; he narrowly missed second place. - **Ricardo Belmont — poll 9% × market 5.1% (−3.9pp):** the market priced him *below* his vote share — it never saw him as a real contender. **The reading:** a blended "market + polls" average would have smoothed Álvarez's 31.6% market price into the noise. The divergence is what flagged where the crowd's money and the pollsters' respondents disagreed — sometimes the market is early-right (Fujimori), sometimes overconfident (Álvarez). **The spread is the signal.** **Pollsters covered:** Ipsos Perú, Datum Internacional, CPI, IEP, CIT, Imasolu, CELAG, IDICE, CB Global Data (with publishing client where applicable). **Provenance & method:** poll figures are compiled deterministically (rowspan/colspan-aware HTML parser) from the public Wikipedia aggregation *"Opinion polling for the 2026 Peruvian general election"* and cross-checked against the [AS/COA poll tracker](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-perus-2026-presidential-election); every figure traces to a named pollster's release. Market odds come from the public Polymarket markets. Nothing is imputed or smoothed; missing values are left blank. **License:** CC BY 4.0. Underlying poll numbers are facts released by the named pollsters; the Wikipedia aggregation is CC BY-SA. Please attribute **AFOS Analytics** and the **original pollsters**. **Cite:** *AFOS Analytics. Peru 2026 Electoral Divergence Dataset. Hugging Face, 2026. CC BY 4.0.* (see `CITATION.cff`) **Disclaimer:** observational research. Not investment advice, not voting guidance. --- ## Español Dataset abierto que cruza **encuestas × mercados de predicción** para la **elección general del Perú 2026** (primera vuelta 12 abr 2026; segunda vuelta 7 jun 2026, Keiko Fujimori vs Roberto Sánchez), con **divergencia explícita** entre fuentes en lugar de un promedio único. - `polls/peru-first-round-polls.csv` — intención de voto en primera vuelta, formato largo, **los 14 candidatos**, 36 encuestas (ene→abr 2026). - `polls/peru-runoff-polls.csv` — segunda vuelta cara a cara (Fujimori vs Sánchez), 16 encuestas. - `data/peru-market-odds-timeseries.csv` / `data/peru-divergence-timeseries.csv` — probabilidad de Polymarket por candidato y divergencia mercado × encuesta. **Encuestadoras:** Ipsos Perú, Datum Internacional, CPI, IEP, CIT, Imasolu, CELAG, IDICE, CB Global Data. **Fuente:** agregación pública de Wikipedia + tracker AS/COA; cada cifra remite a la publicación de una encuestadora con nombre. **Licencia:** CC BY 4.0 (atribuir a AFOS Analytics y a las encuestadoras originales). Investigación observacional; no es asesoría de inversión ni orientación de voto. --- ## Português Dataset aberto cruzando **pesquisas × mercados de previsão** para a **eleição geral do Peru 2026** (1º turno 12/abr; 2º turno 07/jun, Keiko Fujimori × Roberto Sánchez), com **divergência explícita** entre fontes. Pesquisas (14 candidatos, 36 do 1º turno + 16 do 2º turno) compiladas deterministicamente da agregação pública da Wikipedia + tracker AS/COA; odds do Polymarket. Licença CC BY 4.0 (atribuir AFOS Analytics + institutos originais). Pesquisa observacional; não é recomendação de investimento nem orientação de voto. --- **Sources / Fuentes:** Pollsters (Ipsos Perú, Datum, CPI, IEP, CIT, …) · [Wikipedia aggregation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Peruvian_general_election) · [AS/COA poll tracker](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-perus-2026-presidential-election) · Polymarket. Column definitions in [`DATA_DICTIONARY.md`](DATA_DICTIONARY.md).