README: add Notable divergences section (Álvarez market 31.6% vs poll 8%, etc.)

README.md

@@ -41,6 +41,17 @@ Maintained by **[AFOS Analytics](https://afos-analytics.com)**. This is part of
 
 <sub>Market data fetched from Polymarket's gamma-api + clob (US-resolving function). Divergence covers the **first round**; no clean head-to-head runoff win-probability market exists to join the runoff polls.</sub>
 
+### ⚖️ Notable divergences (why divergence beats the average)
+
+The point of this dataset is the **gap** between what the market prices (probability of *winning*) and what polls measure (first-round *vote share*). Averaging the two would erase the signal. From the final pre-election poll (Ipsos Perú, 6 Apr 2026):
+
+- **Carlos Álvarez — poll 8% × market 31.6% (+23.6pp).** The market priced this outsider's *win probability* at nearly a third while polls had him at 8% — and the bet **failed**: Álvarez did not reach the runoff. A vivid case where the market diverged from polls *and was wrong*.
+- **Keiko Fujimori — poll 16% × market 22% (+6pp).** Market and polls agreed she led; the market gave her a modest *win* premium — and she topped the first round.
+- **Rafael López Aliaga — poll 7% × market 15% (+8pp):** market doubled his win-odds vs his vote share; he narrowly missed second place.
+- **Ricardo Belmont — poll 9% × market 5.1% (−3.9pp):** the market priced him *below* his vote share — it never saw him as a real contender.
+
+**The reading:** a blended "market + polls" average would have smoothed Álvarez's 31.6% market price into the noise. The divergence is what flagged where the crowd's money and the pollsters' respondents disagreed — sometimes the market is early-right (Fujimori), sometimes overconfident (Álvarez). **The spread is the signal.**
+
 **Pollsters covered:** Ipsos Perú, Datum Internacional, CPI, IEP, CIT, Imasolu, CELAG, IDICE, CB Global Data (with publishing client where applicable).
 
 **Provenance & method:** poll figures are compiled deterministically (rowspan/colspan-aware HTML parser) from the public Wikipedia aggregation *"Opinion polling for the 2026 Peruvian general election"* and cross-checked against the [AS/COA poll tracker](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-perus-2026-presidential-election); every figure traces to a named pollster's release. Market odds come from the public Polymarket markets. Nothing is imputed or smoothed; missing values are left blank.